My Daily Trading Results - Football Trading

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Kafkaesque just wanted to address something you mentioned in regards to betting or trading. I had mentioned this on another board but I wanted to understand why leaving an open trade to expiry is viewed as betting whereas opening and closing a position is seen as trading.

I can understand the need to open a position and close it. For instance if you are laying the draw from the beginning of a match, because the liability is normally 2-4 times the size of your stake then clearly you cannot be successful at such a strategy if you simply keep your lay trade open to expiry since the reward to risk factor is so heavily against you.

However lets say you have someone who instead of laying the draw at the beginning of the match has a strategy where they lay the draw 5 minutes from the end of the match. At this point the lay odds would be hovering around 1.50 or thereabouts. If they place a lay trade at this position would you view it a bet if they decided to leave the trade open till expiry. What would be the lowest back they would need to take to close the position if the trade was looking like it would go against them. If they closed at 1.10 to take a loss or 1.05....What if they closed at 1.01.....

The point I am making is that opening and closing a position is about managing liability. However if you kick of a trade where your liability is actually close to your stake (1:1 risk/reward) or even less than your stake (example of laying at 1.50) and the strike rate backs up the strategy for overall profit then since you can leave the position open till expiry then why is this seen as a bet and not a trade. Clearly the position is already managed by you buying the price as it hurtles downwards thus massively reducing your downside. Then its a matter of having an edge where the win rate is sufficient enough to make this viable.

The argument that a trade is where you have to bet and lay or open and close is a traditional argument. Even in the financial world you now have financial options where you can let the trade run to expiry. In fact this was something that Pete Webb made reference to when in a youtube video where he talked about the parallels between the sporting exchange and the financial exchanges.

Interested to know your thoughts. I know the argument about betting and trading comes down to semantics but if you have a statistical edge and using a financial exchange to open your position rather than going to the bookies then to me its a trade unless a peron is just blindly in a gambling mindset and chasing losses, no edge etc...
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 5:28 pm
Point of exercise is to start off with a small bank and prove I can grow it from a small bank as most beginners will be able to relate to a small bank rather than me showing big profits from an account of 10K Plus. And believe you me I have been challenged by using a small bank because I don't have the security of a big bank to cover my silly mistakes.


But who are you trying to prove it too if you're already an experienced trader and been using/profiting from the same strategy for a few years . And I'm not sure how a small bank (if £1K can be considered small to beginners) can be a challenge if you've already made decent profits from previous years, re-funding an account is never the end of the world.

I guess I'm just confused as to why you'd feel the need to restrict your profits as some kind of noble deed to show beginners you can win on the exchanges. In my experience stats based strategies have a finite shelf life and it's best to cash in whilst it lasts.
User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

theuktrader wrote:
Sat Dec 16, 2017 6:32 pm
Interested to know your thoughts. I know the argument about betting and trading comes down to semantics but if you have a statistical edge and using a financial exchange to open your position rather than going to the bookies then to me its a trade unless a peron is just blindly in a gambling mindset and chasing losses, no edge etc...
It isn't semantics at all.

Sure, a number of points of interests is up for debate. The difference between trading and gambling (which been done here often, and also lately); whether a trader should always look to trade out or can something let it run etc.

What is neither up for debate nor semantics is that a trade is where you take a position and - nearly always - look to trade back out at an appropriate point (or even predetermined), often many times over. A bet is where you take a position, because you feel the current price offers value compared to the true chance, let the market play out and take the volatility involved.

Nothing wrong with betting, and again if you've found an edge in the market, you can consistently exploit, then wonderful. It's just betting, all the same.
theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

i agree to disagree but could you answer the question just so that I can understand what your saying in this practical example.

If I enter a lay the draw trade at 85 minutes when the draw price has come down to 1.50. If the price continues down to 1.10 and its now injury time are you saying if I close out the trade for a loss by backing at 1.10 that this is a trade but if I don't do this and allow the price to drop beyond 1.10 down to 1.01 and then the game finishes that this is a bet.
theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Another trade came up for today which my system identified so updated and final results for today are as follows

16th December
DAILY PROFIT = +£261.77
PROJECT PROFIT = +£199.10
16dec17.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

if you dont know the difference between a bet and a trade then you shouldn't be doing either.
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 pm
I am starting with a bank of £1000. Using around 3-4% of my bank for each trade. I believe in the power of high reward to risk type strategies so I expected to make anything up to twice the size of my trading liability with a win rate in the region of 60%.
Not sure I understand what you are saying here compared to your results. Do you mean you are using 3-4% of your bank but risking more than 10%. Some of your losses on your trades have been over £100 therefore you are risking more than 10% of your starting bank.

If you look at one of the many longest losing run tables on line, you will see that with a 60% win rate, you are quite likely to have a losing run of 8 trades in a row over a 1000 run of trades. So if you are risking over 10% of your bank on each trade you are fairly likely sooner or later to blow up your bank.

If on the other hand you are just showing newbies how quickly you can grow a small bank, then I don't think its a good idea to encourage new people to be risking more than 10% of their bank on a bet, where you are letting that bet run to conclusion (ie. you are not trading out for a 3 to 4% loss).

Please don't take offence at my comments, I always like to see thoughts and ideas from new people on these boards. Message boards need new posters with new ideas to remain interesting otherwise they can become stagnant and everyone develops a form of group think.
User avatar
Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

Bluesky wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:18 am
Please don't take offence at my comments, I always like to see thoughts and ideas from new people on these boards. Message boards need new posters with new ideas to remain interesting otherwise they can become stagnant and everyone develops a form of group think.
Agree, and said as much - or something similar - earlier. However:
Bluesky wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 9:18 am
Not sure I understand what you are saying here compared to your results. Do you mean you are using 3-4% of your bank but risking more than 10%. Some of your losses on your trades have been over £100 therefore you are risking more than 10% of your starting bank.
The biggest red flag about this is that not only wasn't the net loss results from the 15th posted until the 16th had brought the "project" back into profit, but also the 15th did show losses about 3-4%. After that losing day, they jumped to over the 10%ish. I'll leave you to your own conclusion as to what happened there.
theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

gentlemen

thank you for your comments. I was unable to do anything yesterday as family was around unexpectedly and you know what its like trying to do anything when you are hosting guests.

However I have had time to really look further into what you were making reference to regarding trading for price movements as opposed to trading for market outcomes. I believe I am now starting to see what your saying.

Can anyone point me to a thread which covers this extensively and in a manner which is concise. May I also ask the question when you are trading for price movements as you seem to make reference is there any rules you have regarding what your maximum loss is vs your potential reward.

Cheers
User avatar
Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

theuktrader wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:27 pm

However I have had time to really look further into what you were making reference to regarding trading for price movements as opposed to trading for market outcomes. I believe I am now starting to see what your saying.

Can anyone point me to a thread which covers this extensively and in a manner which is concise. May I also ask the question when you are trading for price movements as you seem to make reference is there any rules you have regarding what your maximum loss is vs your potential reward.

Cheers
This thread shows how to green up (close a trade) and has a few images which might help you
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=11572

Or there are tons of videos on trading in general on Bet Angel TV
https://www.betangel.tv/

You'll probably find more on actually 'trading the price moves' in the horse racing section but its the same principal in any market, back higher than you lay and green up to guarantee a profit
theuktrader
Posts: 19
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 11:19 am

Thanks backing and laying and greening up I already know.

What I am asking about is generally the risk to reward relationship that most traders go for when looking to back and lay to create a profit regardless of the outcome. Is it 1R, 2R, 3R.
User avatar
Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

theuktrader wrote:
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:09 pm
I am starting with a bank of £1000. Using around 3-4% of my bank for each trade. I believe in the power of high reward to risk type strategies so I expected to make anything up to twice the size of my trading liability with a win rate in the region of 60%.
Not sure I understand what you are saying here compared to your results. Do you mean you are using 3-4% of your bank but risking more than 10%. Some of your losses on your trades have been over £100 therefore you are risking more than 10% of your starting bank.
[/quote]

Uk Trader if you wish to be taken seriously, you need to address this point. Why state 3-4% then go more than double that liability PER MATCH - potentially this could / will lose HALF OF THE ENTIRE £1,000 STARTING BANK IN ONE DAY!

CS
User avatar
Orixian
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:36 am

So is this experiment still running ?
Post Reply

Return to “Football trading”