Today's Horse Racing
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Found a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
Damn I'll miss that one, as I've got trampoline training tonight can you please post the chart later on?SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pmFound a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
7.30 - Western WaySeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pmFound a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
SHR we have had our differences in the past but this is a genuine enquiry
I have a very healthy respect for the way Don Cantillon has gone about his business in the lower levels of the thoroughbred world and have known a few people who have had an interest through him in several horses at various stages of ownership. Irrespective of whether the horse wins tonight , In your opinion what is the basis for the conclusion that a) This horse has been "fidled for a long time" b) what do you mean by the term "fidled" c) if you had "released the info" earlier than you had , do you believe the market would have reacted any differently d) if i told you some conflicting evidence regarding the reason for this horses definite absence of 442 days 2 runs back and general temperament in terms of the way this horse travels through it's races would you be willing to change your mind in regards to the "fidling"
BTW - This horse , Western Way ran in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham a few years back and at one time was thought not only by Don , but by a very astute judge , Dennis O'Reagan as a potential Champion Hurdle horse. Many , many , many niggly problems later and it turns up tonight on the AW making a serious trip up from Newmarket rated 62 - such is the fickle nature of the sport and the breed!!!
Last edited by bobs71 on Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
When I use the term fiddled I do not necesssarly always mean the trainer is out to have one over the betting public. Sometimes it does sometimes it doesnt. But using the term fidled in this case, I 100% beleive Western Way has not been running on its merits for a very long time, whether the horse being out of form, lame or just not right or any other reason but let me explain.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:34 pm7.30 - Western WaySeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pmFound a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
SHR we have had our differences in the past but this is a genuine enquiry
I have a very healthy respect for the way Don Cantillon has gone about his business in the lower levels of the thoroughbred world and have known a few people who have had an interest through him in several horses at various stages of ownership. Irrespective of whether the horse wins tonight , In your opinion what is the basis for the conclusion that a) This horse has been "fidled for a long time" b) what do you mean by the term "fidled" c) if you had "released the info" earlier than you had , do you believe the market would have reacted any differently d) if i told you some conflicting evidence regarding the reason for this horses definite absence of 442 days 2 runs back and general temperament in terms of the way this horse travels through it's races would you be willing to change your mind in regards to the "fidling"
BTW - This horse , Western Way ran in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham a few years back and at one time was thought not only by Don , but by a very astute judge , Dennis O'Reagan as a potential Champion Hurdle horse. Many , many , many niggly problems later and it turns up tonight on the AW making a serious trip up from Newmarket rated 62 - such is the fickle nature of the sport and the breed!!!
This horse stays 2miles and beyond, it has shown form. Theory within racing is a horse that gets 12f on the flat would get 2m on a NH course. Just a general guide. For whatever reason that I dont know this horse has not been "right" since atleast june 2016. Everytime this horse has ran well or won it has been up with the pace. Its first run back this year after long lay off was over 7f. This horse has won over 3m. This automatically tells me this was a prep run after long lay off. It has now gone from not winning in 10 starts with every run to the back of the field to last time being gambled into favouritism to then run a different pace style of up with the pace.
I dont want to give too much other information as to my opinion but I am 100% certain the trainer is expecting a big run today, a run of where not winning would be dissapointing and I strongly believe his come back run two starts ago is better form then anything else has shown in their past 4 runnings.
- SeaHorseRacing
- Posts: 2893
- Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm
Additionally taken the cheek pieces off imo is a sign of a very fresh horse. I am pretty sure the horses next run will have cheekpieces back on.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:14 pmWhen I use the term fiddled I do not necesssarly always mean the trainer is out to have one over the betting public. Sometimes it does sometimes it doesnt. But using the term fidled in this case, I 100% beleive Western Way has not been running on its merits for a very long time, whether the horse being out of form, lame or just not right or any other reason but let me explain.bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:34 pm7.30 - Western WaySeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pmFound a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
SHR we have had our differences in the past but this is a genuine enquiry
I have a very healthy respect for the way Don Cantillon has gone about his business in the lower levels of the thoroughbred world and have known a few people who have had an interest through him in several horses at various stages of ownership. Irrespective of whether the horse wins tonight , In your opinion what is the basis for the conclusion that a) This horse has been "fidled for a long time" b) what do you mean by the term "fidled" c) if you had "released the info" earlier than you had , do you believe the market would have reacted any differently d) if i told you some conflicting evidence regarding the reason for this horses definite absence of 442 days 2 runs back and general temperament in terms of the way this horse travels through it's races would you be willing to change your mind in regards to the "fidling"
BTW - This horse , Western Way ran in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham a few years back and at one time was thought not only by Don , but by a very astute judge , Dennis O'Reagan as a potential Champion Hurdle horse. Many , many , many niggly problems later and it turns up tonight on the AW making a serious trip up from Newmarket rated 62 - such is the fickle nature of the sport and the breed!!!
This horse stays 2miles and beyond, it has shown form. Theory within racing is a horse that gets 12f on the flat would get 2m on a NH course. Just a general guide. For whatever reason that I dont know this horse has not been "right" since atleast june 2016. Everytime this horse has ran well or won it has been up with the pace. Its first run back this year after long lay off was over 7f. This horse has won over 3m. This automatically tells me this was a prep run after long lay off. It has now gone from not winning in 10 starts with every run to the back of the field to last time being gambled into favouritism to then run a different pace style of up with the pace.
I dont want to give too much other information as to my opinion but I am 100% certain the trainer is expecting a big run today, a run of where not winning would be dissapointing and I strongly believe his come back run two starts ago is better form then anything else has shown in their past 4 runnings.
I spotted the horse this morning and noticed the market was erratic, I thought I would wait and see if the price settles. I didnt want to say anything as the time it was drifting like a barge. I noticed there was resistance at the price of 6.0 and knew it wasnt going to go past that price again. Especially being a natural resistance point within the market.
- Crazyskier
- Posts: 1167
- Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm
bobs71 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:34 pmSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2018 3:18 pmFound a horse that has definetely been fidled for a long time and they tried to land the gamble last time out. Rather then a bet, I am very certain of a gamble for a trade as I know alot of you dont like betting. The horse will win. A winner and a decent steamer ahead tonight. ]]
7.30 Western Way 4/1 currently. 5.6 on exchange been drifting all day but I think its gone past its highest point now so have released the info.
went out to around 100 IP but finished very well to take the win.
Cheers SHR
CS