Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:16 pm
I thought I had been clear what the object of the exercise was, to look for a quick n dirty way to find runners that would be there or therabouts at the end and I dont believe I made any selection choices. Perhaps not the best choice of race but I can take the result on the chin this time. SHR, keep up the good work, Derek, yes 1-1, Halliday good analysis. Inclusion of other factors in build 2 is probably in order.
You can't just use speed/ time to determine the best horse in any given race .. you must use form and many other factors .. key of which is understanding value, which is the main factor in making any selection process profitable .

The the 13.10 race .. City Gent was poor value based on his past form ( well beaten by count Otto two races ago ) and clearly had his quirks if you watch his previous races .
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Derek27
Posts: 23663
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 2:16 pm
I thought I had been clear what the object of the exercise was, to look for a quick n dirty way to find runners that would be there or therabouts at the end and I dont believe I made any selection choices. Perhaps not the best choice of race but I can take the result on the chin this time. SHR, keep up the good work, Derek, yes 1-1, Halliday good analysis. Inclusion of other factors in build 2 is probably in order.
Please don't tell me there's going to be a build 2 !

When I was 13 I spent hours up in my bedroom trying to devise ratings that take into account all sorts of factors. Truth of the matter is that racing is far too complex to create meaningful measurements based on such simple data. The only way to rate horses is to have an entire inter-related handicap system based on performances, and that's far too time consuming for one person - it requires a team.

I've heard of individuals who compile their own ratings but I often wonder if it's a hobby or obsession. If your time is valuable to you you may just as well subscribe to Timeform and let them do the work.
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Naffman
Posts: 5642
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Use FlatStats (or something similar) - they do all the work for you and if you have a hunch you can back test it 10 years even with BSP.
Atho55
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

I primarily do everything through automation and have 2 on test so was looking for something to keep me occupied for a bit but thanks for all the tips. Now that I have managed to open a line of communication I have a question that I would like to ask. One I currently have on test is based on some rudimentary recording of odds I carried out. To place a bet it looks for the following:

Back odds between a and b
Historical Rel Odds Now >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 1 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 2 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 3 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 4 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 5 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)

Order of favouritism < x

When there looks to be a buoyant market like today, Thurs, Fri and Saturday it does ok. Today for example, 14 hits, 7 wins 7 losses. A win is approx 2.3 greater than a loss. Evenings and Sun, Mon Tues it is rubbish, hardly ever fires and when it does usually loses. I cannot get my head around why the tick gap which this is primarily driven by changes so much as to render the rule useless in those periods. Any solutions gratefully received
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Dallas
Posts: 22722
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:04 pm
I primarily do everything through automation and have 2 on test so was looking for something to keep me occupied for a bit but thanks for all the tips. Now that I have managed to open a line of communication I have a question that I would like to ask. One I currently have on test is based on some rudimentary recording of odds I carried out. To place a bet it looks for the following:

Back odds between a and b
Historical Rel Odds Now >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 1 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 2 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 3 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 4 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)
HRO 5 sec ago >x <y ticks (Back odds & Lay odds)

Order of favouritism < x

When there looks to be a buoyant market like today, Thurs, Fri and Saturday it does ok. Today for example, 14 hits, 7 wins 7 losses. A win is approx 2.3 greater than a loss. Evenings and Sun, Mon Tues it is rubbish, hardly ever fires and when it does usually loses. I cannot get my head around why the tick gap which this is primarily driven by changes so much as to render the rule useless in those periods. Any solutions gratefully received
Might be better starting a new thread with this question otherwise any comments will just get lost after a few days in amongst daily racing posts
Atho55
Posts: 638
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

I would if I knew how, can`t seem to find the feature that does that
:(
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Dallas
Posts: 22722
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

Atho55 wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:37 pm
I would if I knew how, can`t seem to find the feature that does that
:(
If you go back to the top level of the section you want to post in
viewforum.php?f=5

Then on the left side above the 1st thread is 'New Topic'
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Time to empty your money Jar.

12.20 St Patrick's Day. 5.0 on bf :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Would not be suprised to see this gambled however my last two pieces of info relating to this trainer drifted and both finished 2nd.
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Derek27
Posts: 23663
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Ludlow's quite noisy today. Put in a back and lay 6 ticks apart, both matched within milliseconds.
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Euler
Posts: 24813
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I've quite enjoyed today, been much better than the rest of the week.
Trading96
Posts: 470
Joined: Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:47 pm

Spare Parts probs value now
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

I have got a winner at Newcastle tonight. I cannot give the information until I am on at a price, not sp. Exciting!! Stay tuned.
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Euler
Posts: 24813
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Finding today tough going
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Derek27
Posts: 23663
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Same here, caught out by a big move on Ban Shoof.
Simonlofc
Posts: 139
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2014 11:07 am

Is BF crashing got a few Suspended races
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