Trading Horse racing : Section for Value

The sport of kings.
LinusP
Posts: 1443
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
Yes with bookmaker prices but not on the exchange, price is irellavent as spreadbetting has said its all about your edge. Yes you might have a bad day but if you are beating SP long term you will be in profit.

However pricing up random markets isn’t going to make you rich, you need to automate or do it full time.

LinusP
Posts: 1443
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:43 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:34 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:23 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
I don't quite get that way of thinking, the potential profit is in your edge over the market not in the price of the runner.
Back a horse at 1/9, even if you got 93% winners it's a small percentage profit with large potential losses. At odds of 3/1 a 20% profit from 30% winners is achievable with far less risk.
You need to change your frame of mind, although it’s the majority having this frame of mind that provides opportunities so carry on...

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:54 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pm
SeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
Kelly Criterion Calculator.xlsxKelly Criterion spreadsheet example.xls

and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use it
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
Starting to like you! :lol:

spreadbetting
Posts: 1812
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:55 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:34 pm


Back a horse at 1/9, even if you got 93% winners it's a small percentage profit with large potential losses. At odds of 3/1 a 20% profit from 30% winners is achievable with far less risk.
Not sure giving a small edge to laying 9/1 shots versus backing 3/1 shots with a large edge really backs up your argument :)

From my limited experience I've always found any edges are usually better at the extremes of the odds ladder rather than the middle, maybe that's down to the way the crowd are happier to offer better value at those prices due to the likely risks of a) It winning, i.e underestimating long shots or b) the losses involved laying shorties c) the limited increments lower down the ladder to offer true value, who can say.
Last edited by spreadbetting on Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:03 pm, edited 5 times in total.

bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:57 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:12 pm
spreadbetting wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 6:49 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 11:50 am
I will use my trading knowledge using the same stakes to trade these races on betdaq with only one trade per runner allowed and any price that is priced over my forecast will be staked at sp at 1 minute to post time for the same stakes.
Why will you only be backing? Surely a lot of value will be available to lay also, i.e. you have Gold Flash at 10 and it's currently 4.5. Also what 'edge' will you be taking , backing at any price over your 100% forecast book would give you little worthwhile edge on many runners.

I'm not having a dig btw as I've done similar things in the past making my own tissues and all it showed me was I was useless at it, but also the providers of newspaper tissues were just as bad :) The other thing I always noticed with out of line tissues is that the value to be had is usually early doors as markets do start to correct the more people that enter them. That's why it's very easy for people like Hugh Taylor to show long term profits by picking off and quoting bets on bady priced runners where little if any real money is actual laid at the prices.

One other thing would be remove any reference to the wife's account, they do read forums.
Thanks for your input buddy.

I just want to try and build a comparison to see if trading based on a tissue price. For example. Only interested in a selection to trade if I believe it has been priced incorrectly.

I am also really curious to know if and how many winners are winning much shorter then what i think they should be, there's no point backing value in every race if 75% of races are won by horses that are priced too short. Just found this way of thinking really interesting lately.

After your input it has alswo got me thinking.

Is it easier to find a value bet or is it easier to find a value lay? Are most winning horses overpriced or are they underpriced. Is their a bias in any way?
For example, On the AW Charlie Apple Godolphin newcomers, are always favourite and are always short. Surely these are priced too short..
Re Appleby - No - their actually slightly profitable on the exchanges
This is to BFSP inc 5.5% comm
Appleby Newcomers.PNG
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bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:07 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:54 pm
bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pm
SeaHorse - Re - Kelly criterion - These may assist
Kelly Criterion Calculator.xlsxKelly Criterion spreadsheet example.xls

and a manuscript written by Ed Thorp (google him) in pdf on how best to use it
https://www.dropbox.com/s/dk94pmjcveyvd ... p.pdf?dl=0
Starting to like you! :lol:
Thanks Darling!! :D

bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm

SeaHorse

This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc

It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.
Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:16 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm
SeaHorse

This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc

It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.

Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Thanks.

Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end

bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:19 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:16 pm
bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm
SeaHorse

This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc

It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.

Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Thanks.

Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end
aah! - could be mate - try again in a couple of minutes

bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:21 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:16 pm
bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:14 pm
SeaHorse

This may also help - it calculates a tissue -( Back & lay) by inputting ratings - preferably handicap/speed ratings that are relatively close together - Racing Post ratings , Topspeed , Timeform , Raceform etc etc

It calcualtes odds to 100% and also to around 80% (theoretical 20% edge) but is adjustable with confidence levels etc.
Have a play around with it.

Weight Ratings To Market Convertor.xls
Thanks.

Doesnt let me respond via private message to you think i may be blocked your end
should be sorted now bud had Pms set to no

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