Trading Horse racing : Section for Value

The sport of kings.
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 8:59 pm

Another value winner there for me. :D

Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:02 pm

LinusP wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:41 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 7:06 pm
I used to gamble successful but the reason I never laid horses (other than very short priced) is that it's the same as backing long odds-on. The potential for profit is quite small.
Yes with bookmaker prices but not on the exchange, price is irellavent as spreadbetting has said its all about your edge. Yes you might have a bad day but if you are beating SP long term you will be in profit.

However pricing up random markets isn’t going to make you rich, you need to automate or do it full time.
You can't lay a horse at bookie's prices, only the exchange facilitates laying.

bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:53 pm

SeaHorse
Re - Layoffs
Would this sort of data be any use?
Beckett - Layoffs.PNG
For every Trainer since 2008
This is Ralph Beckett's record in Hcaps only with every horse coming off a layoff with next 4 runs tracked.
You can see R2 - the second run is the most effective % wise and Profit
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 02, 2018 10:19 pm

bobs71 wrote:
Fri Feb 02, 2018 9:53 pm
SeaHorse
Re - Layoffs
Would this sort of data be any use?
Beckett - Layoffs.PNG

For every Trainer since 2008
This is Ralph Beckett's record in Hcaps only with every horse coming off a layoff with next 4 runs tracked.
You can see R2 - the second run is the most effective % wise and Profit
:ugeek: :geek:

Feels like xmas. :P

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:24 pm

Saturday 3 Feb.

2.35 Lingfield.

1. George Dryden 3.0
2. Just That Lord 6.5
3. Union Rose 10.0
4. You're Cool 6.5
5. Brother Tiger 4.0
6. Red Stripes 20.0

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:05 pm

4.45 Wolver 5 Feb

1. Prince Jai 5.0
2. Burauq 3.0
3. Moi Aussie 16.0
4. Bink Blue 34.0
5. Broughtons Fancy 20.0
6. Kyllach me 12.0
7. Tassaboq 5.0
8. Harbour Patrol 20.0
9. Cyflymder 50.0
10. Tess Graham 100.0

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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:34 pm

Very difficult race to assess, but lots of opportunities available. Think the market has really got it wrong can see the top two Odds On Oli and Plansina drifting and even finishing out of the top three of the betting.

2:00Southwell (AW) FIBRESAND6 FEB 2018ATR
1m (1m13y) 32Red Casino Handicap (Class 6) (3yo 0-60)
RACE CONDITIONS £6,069 guaranteed For 3yo Rated 46-60 (also open to such horses rated 61 and 62; such horses rated 45 and below are also eligible - see Standard Conditions) Weights highest weight 9st 7lb Minimum weights 8-7 Penalties after January 27th, each race won 6lbFoxy Lady's Handicap Mark 62 Entries 11 pay £22 Penalty value 1st £3,105.12 2nd £924.00 3rd £461.76 4th £300.00 5th £300.00 6th £300.00 7th £300.00 8th £300.00

Race Notes:
Lots of horse are having 2nd and 3rd run from a long break. See it widely open. Think the favourite should not be short in this 9 runner race. Any favourite prized 3.0 and under is worth a lay.
The pace looks on the slower side of even.

1. FOXY LADY
Long break, trying new trip for first time. Showed a good piece of form over 7f over tapeta in September. Unproven over the surface and never ridden on Soft ground. Trainer in very good form. Could handle this surface with some in the Pedigree. Interesting runner.
16% Chance
Odds 6.5- 11/2

2. IPCRESS FILE
Second run back from a long break. Two previous poor runs on the Fibresand surface. Trainers record after a break not great. No sign of any improvement on previous run.
2.5% Chance
Odds 50- 50/1

3. BE MINDFUL
Unproven on the surface, very lightly raced. 3rd run back from a break. Appeared to have improved for 1m last time out. Trainers horses appear to improve on 3rd run from a break. Progeny has shown soft ground and fibresand form. Two sets of breaks could be a different horse now had a few runs
20% Chance
Odds 5.0- 4/1

4. ODDS ON OLI
2nd run returning from a break beaten a neck favourite last time out. Lightly raced. Although dam preferred quick ground progeny have shown form on soft ground. Trainer on 34 losing run. Has a good chance, nothing obvious standing out. Trainers horse can improve for second run after a break.
11% Chance
Odds 9-8/1

5. PLANSINA
Won last time out beaten Odds On Oli. Cheek pieces and 3rd run since a break. One poor run on surface but dam liked it soft. Jockey Tony Hamilton rode Odds On Oli two starts back. Seemed to improve for step up to a mile, concerned hasn’t been stepped further in distance.
11% Chance
Odds 9-8/1

6. POLITICAL SLOT
Looks to have improved from past three runs. Lightly raced, still room for improvement. One previous poor run on fibresand although first run back from a break. Hard to tell if finishing second last time out was because race was slowly run. Not much information on Dam whether it will handle the fibresand. Have my doubts, if I am wrong on previous race he could steal the race here with a slower pace.
16% Chance
Odds 6.5- 11/2

7. CHERUBIC
First run for David Evans. Trainer has had a couple of good price winners recently. Hasn’t run since September. Think horse will need this run. Finished last of 12 last time out. Blinkers off. Non-runner two weeks ago, injured in box was due to run on tapeta. Looks a negative here. Related to some nice horses and they have shown some soft ground form. Jockey Sean Levey only booked on two rides for todays meeting. Very hard to asses but forgiven last run, does appear to have improved slightly for each run. Had break May to August last year and Sept to now Feb.
11% Chance
Odds 9-8/1

8. POORAULDJOSEPHINE
Not shown any signs of form. Hasn’t raced since December, unproven on surface and distance. Dam won many times on AW but unproven on soft or fibresand. Dam won over mile plus and reasons to improve now over 1 mile. Cannot rule the horse out but most likely if any good will improve for this run and struggle to pass them today. Nothing here to suggest has any chance other than unproven and trying something new.
5% Chance
Odds 50- 50/1

9. LADY JANE
Non-runner and lame a few days ago. Intended to run at Kempton Polytrack, unlikely today is a plan. Last of 11 last time out in January, if forgiven; some good form. Held up on most occasions to producing its best performance when ridden handy in Decemeber. Last ran can be forgiven last time out with poor jockey. Good jockey booking today. Cannot rule out and could be value here as I think the price is likely to generous and she could turn up here. Unproven on surface, Dam unproven. Sire appears to like quick ground which may be a negative but looks the type of horse to smash up here. Intriguing.
11% Chance
Odds 9-8/1

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SeaHorseRacing
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:55 pm

9pm Night before.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:54 pm

Managed a profit out of every single race except my very first which was beaten by a nose, obviously, the aim is not winners but value which is working a treat. But happy so far.

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2780
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Tue Feb 06, 2018 9:55 pm

Wednesday 7th February 2018

Races of interest:
2.25 Chelmsford; Pace looks strong
4.30 Chelmsford; Unsure on pace
OK BY ME; looked interesting.
5.25 Wolverhampton: Pace looks on the slow side
Some horse’s haven been having a change in running style, interesting race.

5.55 Wolverhampton; Pace looks even
Nothing stounds out.

6.55 Wolverhampton; Pace looks strong
7.25 Wolverhampton; Pace looks even

2:25Chelmsford (AW) POLYTRACK7 FEB 2018ATR
7f toteexacta Pick The 1st And 2nd Handicap (Class 7) (3yo+ 0-50)
RACE CONDITIONS £3,500 guaranteed For 3yo+ Rated 45-50 (also open to such horses rated 51 and 52; such horses rated 44 and below are also eligible - see Standard Conditions) Weights highest weight: 4yo+ 9st 10lb; 3yo 8st 7lb Minimum weights 9-5, 3-y-o 8-2 Penalties after January 27th, each race won 6lb Weight for age 3yo from 4yo+ 17lb Mimram's Handicap Mark 50 Entries 12 pay £17Penalty value 1st £2,264.15 2nd £673.75 3rd £336.70 4th £168.35

Race notes: 0-50 is a very weak race, is there a plot in this race?
Open race between top few with some little or no chance

1. TASAABOQ
Eye piece and blinkers back on with a tongue tie, wore this combination before and finished 2nd in 2016 before a poor performance. Ran two days ago. Ran some decent performance a few months ago. A lot of runs over last few months. Concerning, but is being turned out quickly. Jockey been placed twice on this horse. Been running well except to mediocre performances which can be excusable. Interesting. Trainer does well in these sorts of races compared to others. Trainer on small losing spell and had horses priced with a chance.
Chance 20%
Odds 4/1

2. MOSSY’S LODGE
Better run last time for wearing blinkers for first time. Trainers horses running ok. Horse has been moving down handicap a fair bit and possibly very nicely treated. Set the pace for the first time in a while last time with a different distance and just failed to hold on over 1 mile. Drop back in trip interesting. Horses best performances have been ridden prominently. Had a long break last summer and took some time, been running every fortnightly but turned out within less then a week this time. Concerns over this but wouldn’t be surprise if won. Fair chance trainer does ok in these type of races. Drawn outside, could be pressed a little to hard.
Chance 15%
Odds 11/2 (6.5)

3. LITTLE MISS TANGO
Very lightly raced, been improving for each run. Cheek pieces fitted for first time. Failed to hold position last time even though looks best performance to date, I actually don’t think she improved there. Dam won over 6/7f. Been running over a mile and step back in trip looks better to suit. 3rd run after two long breaks. Think this horse will definitely win races. Ridded 3 out of all 4 runs at Wolverhampton. Only 4 runs and a 4yo. Has he had health issues? I think I be more interested in the summer with her, think she will win races. Another horse wants the lead, could be a contested to take the lead in this race. Possible this could open at shorter odds then her real chance.
Chance 4%

Odds 20/1

4. INSTIGATOR
Gelded in September and ran in October, not what I like to see. Gave this horse no chance to come forward, ran the horse straight from op to same race distance and type of track as today, given everything to the handicapper here. Non-ruuner a lot last year. Trainer looks the sort whos out of his depth or still learning the game. 2nd run from nice long break today, still massive room for improvement though. Jockey ridden before but doesn’t appear to be a top apprentice. Can definitely excuse last run and horse is unproven on tapeta. I can only really see negatives here and again possible horse who will likely be priced shorter then my opinion. Stats show trainer does well first time after a break and was backed to favourite after wind op still showed nothing. Like to stay objective but memory a few days ago I saw a race where I thought favourite was really weak and it still wins with this horse finishing 8 lengths behind it.
Chance 4%
Odds 20/1

5. ENCAPSULATED
This horse sticks out like a sore thumb. Can automatically see its been running at Lingfield and Chelmsford a lot where races are probably of stronger quality. Jockey consistently ridden this horse which is quite positive. The horse has been on the go practically all of last year but has been running nice and consistent with breaks. Notice a break of a pattern horse being turned out quickly compared to last years evidence. Positive??? This horse has its perks, if it was human would possibly be autistic. Ridden few times at Wolver, ran shockingly both times, is this horse being taken out of its comfort zone here? Difficult to assess could be a shock price winner on the boards but not a shock winner to me, but comes with a few risks.
Chance 7.5%
Odds 12/1

6. STOPDWORLDNLETMEOF
Relatively lightly raced. 3rd run back since a nice long break and gelded early last year. Not much info about trainer stats, but interested hes managed to get Jamie spencer here. Been running over 6f and appeared to be hampered last time out. Dam not very good showed best form over 7f. Ran better last time out in a slightly stronger race. Strong chance here and think Jamie spencer is needed to get the ride he needs. Spencer does well on horses hes never ridden.
Chance 15%
Odds 11/2

7. HARVEST RANGER
Lightly raced 4 yo. Wearing visor for the first time. Form initially looks very weak but has been running over fibresand which is forgiven. Not sure visor is what a horse needs in a race where there competing for the lead. Spent most of last year off but has had 3 runs late 2017. Progeny appears to like soft ground and could be reason for being run at Southwell, but sire liked quick ground. Related to some black types so could really be well handicapped here. Contender but not a stand out.
Chance 12%
Odds 15/2

8. SUNSET BOUNTY
Wearing cheek pieces for the second time. No form of any use but is now being stepped back 3f. Apart from two small scenarios nothing suggest this horse is a plan and looks very weak. Trainers horses been running ok but I think this horse should be spend grazing the fields.
Chance 1%
Odds 100/1

9. MIMRAM
Hasn’t run since September. Dean Ivorys horses seem to get better from a few runs. Horse did appear to show something first time out over 5f and has recently had a wind op so poor form could be a result of wind and not a true reflection of ability. Very lightly raced and difficult to price. Nothing standing out in pedigree. Can only create a flat price here with lots of flexibility.
Chance 5%
Odds 20/1


10. RUNTHATBYMEAGAIN
3rd run back from a long break and has managed to improve with every run. Trainers horses do improve on 3rd and 4th run, moved yards from David Evans in the summer. Been running in much stronger handicaps by 15lbs which is interesting. Jockey concerns me but is claiming 7lbs and has ridden the horse last time out. Intially looks weak but the more I look at it the strong it appears. 3 yo filly getting a lot of weight here plus the claimer. Not been running in filly races either which is positive. Dam and pedigree pretty good. Short listed.
Chance 20%
Odds 4/1
Short 4/1 Long 6/1

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