When the gods are against you!!!!!!!

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mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

I trade on horse racing but also gamble on horses This has to be the most frustrating week of my life from a gambling perspective. I just keep on getting 2nds and being mugged on the line the usual hard luck stories. So I analysed my results last night and was trying to work out what was going on here. We all have a bad run but this was getting ridiculous! Even my wife was getting frustrated as I screamed at the TV!!!! So I rechecked the races to see if I would pick the same selections or should I say my own software that I wrote many years to analyse form and my selections were exactly the same!

I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )

:D
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Why is your wife frustrated?

If you keep coming 2nd, she should be having the time of her life
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Cheers! :D
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

mhorro wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:28 am
Cheers! :D
If your gambling rather then trading, the first thing you need to accept is are you picking winners or are you picking value bets?

When you are picking winners your far more likely to be emotionally effected as your aim to profit is from winning. However, if your picking value, the purpose is not to win but to find value. Value betters win because of thier margin and is more about turn over.

If your taking value it simply doesnt matter if your selections get beat because your not betting what you think will win but something that is over priced, in this scenario your losing streak is irrelevant because they are not your winning thoughts and just the noise of the variables.

If you want to pick consitant winners just back odds on horses.

Change your mentality. If your picking winners, know that you will have lomg losing runs. Or learn to bet value only and you will the have already accepted i am betting long term because i am not betting my most likely winners and am looking to profit over the year not today
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:27 am
Why is your wife frustrated?

If you keep coming 2nd, she should be having the time of her life
:D :lol:
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

I remember many moons ago was having a really bad day. last fiver on a horse. It fell in the stalls as the gates opened! lol. I recall backing 13 consecutive seconds one day. About 15 years ago I switched to looking for value and found that it transformed my betting, learning to identify overpriced horses on the exchange. had many 25/1, 33/1 50/1 winners but having backed them on the exchange was getting winning odds from 150 all the way up to 1000. Nowadays I've used that experience to learn to trade them. If I absolutely think a horse is an outright bet I will still try and place an offset bet in running at say 1.33. You can end up losing a small part of your win but can save your bacon when they get headed in the last few yards having looked the winner 100 yards out.
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Hi, Thanks for that certainly a eye opener. I normally bet around 6/1 or under. My method is based on the VDW Method ( Van Der wheil ). I automated these ratings by writing code to interrogate a database that contains all of the horse racing results across the world and is updated everyday. I then data mine using native SQL in stored procedures. It basically slices and dices he data for that day's declarations. I use it also to look for patterns i.e. weight, unexposed horses drop in class. I only back on Handicaps as I love punishment!!!!!! :D
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Hope the god's favour me today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mhorro
Posts: 112
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

One good winner and a None runner!!!!!

:D
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

mhorro wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:22 am
I trade on horse racing but also gamble on horses This has to be the most frustrating week of my life from a gambling perspective. I just keep on getting 2nds and being mugged on the line the usual hard luck stories. So I analysed my results last night and was trying to work out what was going on here. We all have a bad run but this was getting ridiculous! Even my wife was getting frustrated as I screamed at the TV!!!! So I rechecked the races to see if I would pick the same selections or should I say my own software that I wrote many years to analyse form and my selections were exactly the same!

I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )

:D
If you're getting angry, whether you're gambling or trading, it's best to stop. You cannot make money on the exchange unless you are calm, focused and thinking straight. It's a psychological problem that everybody has experienced at some time. If somebody's losing money, it's not necessarily the case that his luck's down - he could be using a strategy that consistently loses!
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

mhorro wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:30 pm
Hi, Thanks for that certainly a eye opener. I normally bet around 6/1 or under. My method is based on the VDW Method ( Van Der wheil ). I automated these ratings by writing code to interrogate a database that contains all of the horse racing results across the world and is updated everyday. I then data mine using native SQL in stored procedures. It basically slices and dices he data for that day's declarations. I use it also to look for patterns i.e. weight, unexposed horses drop in class. I only back on Handicaps as I love punishment!!!!!! :D
In my opinion, and I'm sorry to sound negative, any automated method of rating horses is doomed for failure. Does you automated system take into account that the form of a race run at slow pace is meaningless, and ignore it?
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Derek27
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Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Mhorro, I just looked up the VDW method (I vaguely remember it from the days of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book) - it's completely bonkers! You can't rate horses by such simplistic methods.

Would you conclude Sizing Europe had more class than Sprinter Sacre when they first met, simply because he's run in more valuable races?

If the Derby had two million added instead of one, would that make the winner any better, and unbeatable on ratings?
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mcgoo
Posts: 898
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:30 pm

LeTiss wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:27 am
Why is your wife frustrated?

If you keep coming 2nd, she should be having the time of her life
If you ever lose your trading edge I am pretty sure you would find one on stage .Class :D
bobs71
Posts: 72
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2016 10:22 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 1:55 am
Mhorro, I just looked up the VDW method (I vaguely remember it from the days of the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book) - it's completely bonkers! You can't rate horses by such simplistic methods.

Would you conclude Sizing Europe had more class than Sprinter Sacre when they first met, simply because he's run in more valuable races?

If the Derby had two million added instead of one, would that make the winner any better, and unbeatable on ratings?
Anybody who has been into horseracing and populated any of the UK racing forums will know about the VDW method.
It was started by some letters to the old Sporting Chronicle and they were later reprinted in the Raceform Handicap Book Sports Forum page and thats where the interest came from. It is a "Platform" method where you create a numerical picture to see if there is a winner in the race. At least 2 sets of back up ratings are also recommended and some of the guys on forums have took this "simple" method and advanced the concepts much further.
From this there has also been around 7 or 8 booklets published through Tony Peach of Raceform around the method and even today you will find many who are still studying the example races found in these books. The originator of the method and the original letter was a Che Van Der Wheil :D , Nicknamed The Flying Dutchman :D who had apparently fought in WW2 ,and was now a professional gambler who took holidays in far flung exotic places from his winnings. :D
Some of the forum guys contacted Raceform and asked his whereabouts etc and to cut a long story short , after investigation it was found that this was a load of bollocks and the guy was a UK resident from Market Harborough , not named Che Van Der Wheil but Graeme Hall. One guy even went to the nursing home Mr Hall lives in now but i don't know if he was allowed to speak to him. There are still many who use this method to base bets on and some refuse to believe that bogus identity story. I think Mr Peach of Raceform made a good deal of money from the books though.
Even today this hocus pocus is still being marketed and sold to the gullible - see link
http://www.raceadvisor.co.uk/vdw-maximiser-pre-launch/
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Thanks for bringing back old memories Bob. I remember the SCHB forum where people shared systems as the comedy section of the paper. My favourite was Electronic Ratings.

It involved adding up the last three form-figures for each horse to get a rating!

It was called electronic ratings because the guy who invented it needed a calculator to add three single-digit figures!!
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