We Are The Dumb Money!!!!!

A place to discuss anything.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Last edited by Anna List on Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
Kalumpus
Posts: 45
Joined: Wed Mar 27, 2013 12:04 pm

If you consistently make money your money is smart, if you consistently lose then your money is dumb - that simple!
User avatar
BlackHat Betting
Posts: 67
Joined: Sun Oct 29, 2017 10:51 pm
Contact:

Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am
Anna List wrote:
Sun Feb 11, 2018 2:17 pm
Had to come in on this one.

OP - my apologies but you are talking bol**cks.

I'm a layer - not a trader - but it makes no never mind.

It's all about discipline and maximising chances when they come along.

Through the analysis of data, 'edges' can be quickly and efficiently identified and exploited which, of course, just as quickly neutralisers them.

However, I've been in this game for 'some time'. In all honesty, it's probably getting easier to make money not more difficult in the horse racing markets. It's true, the markets are becoming more efficient - but that's only at the high-level and over the long-term. Over the short-term, and at the low-level, market inefficiencies are probably getting worse and that's because communication is getting better and faster. As a result, it's easier and quicker to spread false information - and that's a lucrative source of market inefficiency. Also, if you think that 'fiddling' is decreasing, think again. Don't want to dwell too much on this, for obvious reasons.

Because someone has a shed load and a fast computer does not guarantee success. Look up LTCM.
are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

BlackHat Betting wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:58 pm
Anna List wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:09 am
BlackHat Betting wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 12:58 am


are you an in play layer?
Yes, mostly.
Ah ok good good I am not the only one that prefers that way to trade.

are you scalping or simply laying off the 3 legged donkeys?
In the main, I lay.

If, after a match, it looks as if the horse will win, I back it to offset some of my losses. This, obviously, is a judgement call.

The odds that I submit my lay at are pre-calculated by me before the off. The lay is created before the off but not submitted until the off. The odds represent what I consider to be value.

If I can't get the odds I want, I trash the bet - rather than take odds which aren't value.

If I don't get an 'early' match, I trash the bet. Again, this is a judgement call. By trashing the bet at an early stage, I don't get hit by a fast finisher.

It means I have to operate in manual mode 100% of the time but I prefer it that way. I'm in control.

Yes, it's labour intensive, but then, I learn a lot that I wouldn't if I automated the process (which I could do if I wanted to).

I've tried trading but, to be honest, I'm not good. I just don't have the natural flair that I have as a layer.

I back, on occasions, but only under certain and rare circumstances.

Anna
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

mhorro wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:32 pm
In trading you have Investment banks, brokers and retail traders ( retail traders that is jo public the DUMB MONEY ! )

Why do I get the feeling this is similar trading via the sports exchanges.
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).

It's quite possibly the same on Betfair.

Remember when you see someone posting a big total that the money didn't come out of the ether, as a reward by the gods for a good trading performance.

It came from other exchange users' pockets.

The lure of trading: It could be YOU!
The reality: It probably won't be.

That might sound negative, but this is a game where many are called but few are chosen, and it's important to be honest with yourself.

Jeff
Bluesky
Posts: 420
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2016 9:26 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 pm
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).
Many years ago (in the 90s) I used to day trade and swing trade US stocks, I got to know a few insiders working for the various trading companies. They told me the failure rate for retail traders was around the 95% mark. I would imagine it hasn't changed that much, I would be surprised if its as low as 70% but perhaps information and trading systems have improved which may account for the increase in the success of retail traders.
Anna List
Posts: 157
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:49 am

Bluesky wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:31 am
Ferru123 wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:06 pm
Some retail traders make money. I'd hazard that most lose money (I seem to remember the figure is 70%).
Many years ago (in the 90s) I used to day trade and swing trade US stocks, I got to know a few insiders working for the various trading companies. They told me the failure rate for retail traders was around the 95% mark. I would imagine it hasn't changed that much, I would be surprised if its as low as 70% but perhaps information and trading systems have improved which may account for the increase in the success of retail traders.
I seem to remember betfair dropping a bol**ck, just before they introduced PC, by releasing a statement that inferred that 95% of their customers lost over the long term so I'm sorely tempted to go with Bluesky's 95% rather than Ferru's 70%.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers. If you trade at random you will get random results but lose because of the commission you pay to the provider. So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers.
Exactly right, and this forum has been littered with all 3 of those over the years.

Their future on the exchanges puts them into another 3 categories -

They either saw the light and are now succesful
They gave up having failed
They are still struggling on, whilst wearing cheap underpants from Primark
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
The majority of money lost on the exchanges comes from punters, system followers and chasers. If you trade at random you will get random results but lose because of the commission you pay to the provider. So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
You can add arbers to that list. I was surprised how much and how consistently I was losing on Betfair (and winning it back with bookies) in the months I was predominantly arbing.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
Would there be any chance that you could provide a list of these obvious mistakes please, as it could serve as a checklist for people to check their trades against?

You say that 'most' of the gap can be overcome by not making mistakes. What is required to bridge the remainder of the gap?

Jeff
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Anna List wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:55 am
I seem to remember betfair dropping a bol**ck, just before they introduced PC, by releasing a statement that inferred that 95% of their customers lost over the long term so I'm sorely tempted to go with Bluesky's 95% rather than Ferru's 70%.
TBH, that could well be far closer to the truth than my vaguely remembered figure from years ago. :)

So that raises an interesting thought - it would appear that, for the vast majority of Betfair users, the advantage of using the exchange is that they lose money more slowly than they do with the bookie (yet just as surely - the pleasure or agony persists for longer).

Jeff
User avatar
Derek27
Posts: 23475
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Ferru123 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:40 pm
Euler wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm
So the gap to overcome is really small and most of that can be overcome by not making obvious mistakes and exploiting those that do.
Would there be any chance that you could provide a list of these obvious mistakes please, as it could serve as a checklist for people to check their trades against?

You say that 'most' of the gap can be overcome by not making mistakes. What is required to bridge the remainder of the gap?

Jeff
I think the operative word here is obvious. ;)
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

What is obvious to Peter might not be obvious to lesser mortals! :)
Derek27 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:43 pm
I think the operative word here is obvious. ;)
User avatar
LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Ferru123 wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:43 pm
So that raises an interesting thought - it would appear that, for the vast majority of Betfair users, the advantage of using the exchange is that they lose money more slowly than they do with the bookie (yet just as surely - the pleasure or agony persists for longer).

Jeff
I think that be best described as pure hope, Jeff. They think they have a chance with the exchanges, even if they realistically don't.

It's a bit like chasing after an attractive woman who you know is a lesbian. You keep trying just on the off chance she gets bored of dildos and strap-ons
Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”