Football trading : Are Football Trading Results Just Random

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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lmf21734
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Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:47 pm

Dear Community

Is there an edge in football trading?

For instance everyone knows that the dutch football leagues are high scoring leagues yet last week there were 4 games over last weekend which ended up 0-0.

Today Celtic drew 0-0 against St Johnstone. Juventus and Napoli the top scorers in Serie A could only win 1-0. Galatasary (usual pace setters in Turkey actually lost 2-1 against Kasimpasa a lower placed team.

The results in football seem to be so varied and as manual traders because we can only trade a few games at a time or in a day it just seems to me that we are subject to high levels of skewness and variance where outcomes dont go according to what we would expect or project for a football game which makes it very difficult to make money consistently.

Apart from Pyschoff I dont know of anyone who would show their football trading results (and pyschoff only showed his wins and never ever seemed to show his losses) and am wondering if its because football trading is so inconsistent/random subject to variance that most traders are unable to show any consistent levels of profitability over a sustained period of time.

Its easy to make a quick buck here and there but when it comes to sustained income as a full time job making £50,000 or more per year from football trading is there anyone in the community who meets this level.

Just wondering. I know in Tennis and Cricket and Darts there are more swings inplay as the market reacts to what is happening so there are great opportunities to take advantage of the swings but I have found that Football is not like this because unless their is a goal or the lack of a goal then the price just continues to come in or go out.

Just keen to hear what the community take is on this because dont understand how one can do some really indepth statistical analysis, do all your homework, Choose 5 matches for the day where you get in as a time that repressents great value and then you end up with either nearly all the trades working against you or you barely get out with very low profit or a scratch.....

Scratching my head sometimes as to the results I sometimes get which sometimes makes you think whether you simply went against your homework and statistical analysis and traded the oppositie way whether you would actually be more profitable.

uktrader

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Euler
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Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:25 pm

The short answer is that football is highly variable from an outcome perspective and therefore you would expect large profits and losses unless you are chasing or working on a very distinct timescale. If you scalped time value you would probably get lots of small payoffs and an impressive P&L but the occasional horrific loss.

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lmf21734
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Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:20 pm

Euler

Thanks for your comments.

Scalping time and having the occasional horrific loss. Isn't that similar to the types of strategies in the financial markets that trading gurus tell you to avoid. The ones with fantastic win rates but horrendous reward to risk ratios. I see very few people in the football trading industry promote strategies with low win rates but high reward to risk ratios (many finance traders seem to imply going for a 2:1 reward to risk). Maybe its because that kind of approach doesn't sell if your trying to sell a football system or service to the public.

Also do you feel the strategies we devise is because we need a framework or safe place to operate from and that the safe place is irrelevant to the actual market even though we try to impose our strategy onto the market.

For instance I have been trading a particular strategy which is doing ok but then I tested a random approach by simply choosing the first 6 games per day that show on betfair inplay tab. And guess what the random approach generated the same overall profit as the strategic approach. The only difference being that there were wild swings with the random approach where there were more red days but higher profitable days whereas the strategic approach had minimal red days but more constrained profits but overall the 2 systems virtuall nearly ended up with same overall profit for the period of time I was testing.

Cheers

uktrader

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BlackHat Betting
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Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:35 pm

I have tried football... seemed easy the first 2 or so days... then it all went very wrong and I gave up :D

Back to losing money on the GGs instead :D

Bluesky
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 9:11 am

The football markets are very efficient so its difficult to find an edge trading them. I know a couple of people that make a decent living trading news this is before the match starts, however this is far from a simple strategy. You need to have a very good knowledge of football (various leagues, teams and players etc.). You need to be constantly checking various news sources (twitter, chat rooms, message boards, team web sites etc.). Once you have a tradable item of news they you need to work out how this might affect the price and act on this immediately. You often do not have much time to act on this information, and often just being a minute or two too slow to get on means that all the value from the information has gone.

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psychoff
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:58 am

Hi all,

I think, football results are not random but the difficulty of gaining regular profits from football depends on the accurate odds that the bookmakers (and betfair) give. It is nearly impossible to bet on value odds pregame especially in major leagues. That's why I mostly prefer inplay trading which you can find value odds more easily and get the opportunities to trade out. Football is a dynamic game and nobody can define the exact correct odds throughout the whole game.

For the results, you are right, I prefer to post my best performances as (I guess) nobody wants to watch Messi's 10 big misses instead of top 10 superb goals. Of course I have losses, sometimes big in amount but I am trying to reach monthly/annually profit targets.

Finally, I sometimes share inplay goal alert tips at my twitter account. It means, I have an expectation of an upcoming goal in that match. They are usually around min. 70-75 and odds (under x,5) 1,50-2,00. You can follow them from twitter account:@psychofftrading

Best of luck...

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lmf21734
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:24 pm

Hi Pyschoff

Thanks for sharing. I completely agree with you because I had an experience 2 years ago where I was following a tipster who claimed that by following his over 2.5 bets at the beginning of a match you could make easy profits..

However what he didn't sell in his sales pitch was that if you do any form of statistical analysis you will realize that games which have a high probability of over 2.5 goals at the beginning of a match will start out anything from 1.3 to 1.7 so if you risk £100 to make £30-£70 then you have reward to risk ratio which is anything from 0.3:1 to 0.7:1. Based on past performance I mentally cant stomach any strategy where my reward is going to be far less than my risk even if the win rate is high since there are clusters of losses which can seriously set you back. Even with a 75% strategy you could have 5-6 losing trades in a row.

For instance Man City losing 1-0 to Wigan, Ajax winning only 1-0 at the weekend...We see them every day where teams who are as low as 1.3 to 1.7 to back end up in games where no more than 2 goals are scored.

I think the industry has conditioned us about win rate so much without us understanding that the other side of the coin to take into account is the reward to risk ratio. No point making lots of £20 wins when all it takes is a cluster of 4-5 £80 losses to completely set us back. Also when you are looking to increase your position size its challenging risking £800 to make £200.

I personally believe sharing losses is good because it helps others to understand how frequently your winning days are to your losing days so that they can have an insight into the type of equity curve associated with your strategy.

My last question Pyschoff is have you experimented with going in at 80 minutes or 85 minutes so that even though your win rate is reduced your reward to risk goes up. Have you done any testing in this area to see if it makes a difference to your equity growth.

MESSAGE TO BLUKESKY: Since football markets are so efficient do you think that most football systems being touted are simply selling a dream that doesnt really exist. Most of them never show their equity curves or results and those that do the equity curve growth is far from anything sustainable from a sole income perspective.

Thanks

uktrader

spreadbetting
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:53 pm

lmf21734 wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:24 pm

We see them every day where teams who are as low as 1.3 to 1.7 to back end up in games where no more than 2 goals are scored.
1.3-1.7's losing is no different than 10/30 or 6/4 shots winning and I doubt you'd be shocked at those results.

I'd agree with most people that football is so modelled these days and with so much info available to everyone it's hard to find any value pre off if you're straight betting or even looking to close pre off bets in running. Scalping is still viable pre off but so slow and time consuming it's generally not worth the effort , at least imo. I think in play is the only place you can find value on a regular basis these days

spreadbetting
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 2:57 pm

lmf21734 wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:24 pm

We see them every day where teams who are as low as 1.3 to 1.7 to back end up in games where no more than 2 goals are scored.
1.3-1.7's losing is no different than 10/30 or 6/4 shots winning and I doubt you'd be shocked at those results.

I'd agree with most people that football is so modelled these days and with so much info available to everyone it's hard to find any value pre off if you're straight betting or even looking to close pre off bets in running. Scalping is still viable pre off but so slow and time consuming it's generally not worth the effort , at least imo. I think in play is the only place you can find value on a regular basis these days


lmf21734 wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 1:24 pm

MESSAGE TO BLUKESKY: Since football markets are so efficient do you think that most football systems being touted are simply selling a dream that doesnt really exist. Most of them never show their equity curves or results and those that do the equity curve growth is far from anything sustainable from a sole income perspective.

People selling systems are simply filling their own pockets, most of the systems I've seen touted on forums are usually just some whacky way of betting against a longshot result by playing a few markets at once. You'd usually be better off simply laying the results they haven't covered on the relevant market.

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Euler
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Wed Feb 21, 2018 3:32 pm

[/quote]

People selling systems are simply filling their own pockets, most of the systems I've seen touted on forums are usually just some whacky way of betting against a longshot result by playing a few markets at once. You'd usually be better off simply laying the results they haven't covered on the relevant market.
[/quote]

I completely agree. I presented recently on football markets and when we went to the Q&A the first question was, 'What do you do about a loss'

I got berated because the audience wasn't happy with my answer and felt I was withholding something because they had seen other 'traders' use secondary markets to cover positions. They were even less happy when I told them that was just another way of chasing a loss.

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