Dutching Horses Idea

The sport of kings.
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mhorro
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Yesterday I was dutching a few races at the lay price to 75% book, I would not normally trade this way.

I was only playing with £10 stakes.

So basically I took approx 1/2 the number of runners in the field and guess what the next in the betting market won which I did not include.

This happened a couple of times yesterday, maybe when dutching include a rule = ( dutch the number of selections + the next in the betting you were going to miss out )

:D
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Dallas
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mhorro wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:41 pm

So basically I took approx 1/2 the number of runners in the field and guess what the next in the betting market won which I did not include.

Have you tried 'Variable Dutching'?
2nd post in this thread
viewtopic.php?f=47&t=12774
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Derek27
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mhorro wrote:
Tue Feb 27, 2018 1:41 pm
...maybe when dutching include a rule = ( dutch the number of selections + the next in the betting you were going to miss out )

:D
The simple rule is if you dutch half the selections in the field you can expect to lose quite often!

You haven't explained how you chose the selections you dutched or why you felt you had an edge.
mhorro
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Thanks Dallas great Video, very usefull.

:)
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ShaunWhite
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A little reading to fill a quiet day...for those who don't know where the term 'Dutching' came from.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_Schultz
CallumPerry
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Sod Trading, there's $7m buried somewhere near NY. I'm booking flights now!!
markkirwan
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I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
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Derek27
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markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?

By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
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to75ne
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to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
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Derek27
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to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The old Dawson system was a so-called professional (Martingale) staking plan designed to earn a living from betting.

I hope it's not one of those Mark ?
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to75ne
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:43 pm
to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The old Dawson system was a so-called professional (Martingale) staking plan designed to earn a living from betting.
for crying loud :lol:
markkirwan
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to75ne wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:14 pm
to add to Dereks question what is a "PRO staking plan"
The aim of the plan is to achieve a target profit (T) per race. This could be for instance 5 points per race. Once you have set the value allotted to each point it cannot be changed during the betting sequence. The system works on the premise that a winner is always around the corner, no matter how long your losing run is. Each cash value (return) for each point will be low - the reason for this is that the amount multiplies each time a losing bet is encountered.

For example if we had ten losers in a row, and each point was worth £1, then the stake for the eleventh bet would be to recover £55. If you had given each point a value of 0.25 pence, then you would be looking to recover £10.25. It is very important to consider the risks before deciding upon your final settings, as losses can be significant.

Details are at https://www.thestakingmachine.com/pro.php
markkirwan
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Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:05 pm
markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?

By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
I monitored them for the whole of 2016 and noticed that when debit days happened it was usually later on in the day after a profit was made you would only need few losers in a row at the end of the day to show a loss.

My stake aim is 5% of my bank per race (with the divisor set to 1.30) so my aim for the day is 5% as that is the figure it hits, if it ran to 10% then the winning days runs would be shorter.
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Derek27
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markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 6:34 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:05 pm
markkirwan wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
I dutch horses everyday that in races that have Favourites win % at 40% or more (found in Racing Post). I dutch the number of horses to odds of 1.5 and win about 77% of the time, so I use a PRO staking plan and stop when I've made 5% profit of my bank and restart every day. I usually have about 2 debit days a months but the staking still makes a profit every month (though I did have 1 debit month last June at -22.54%) but on average I made about 120% per month.
What exactly is the point of stopping for the day at 5% ?

By restricting your betting, losers are better of, winners are worse off!
I monitored them for the whole of 2016 and noticed that when debit days happened it was usually later on in the day after a profit was made you would only need few losers in a row at the end of the day to show a loss.

My stake aim is 5% of my bank per race (with the divisor set to 1.30) so my aim for the day is 5% as that is the figure it hits, if it ran to 10% then the winning days runs would be shorter.
Have you tried analysing your 2016 results as though the day (for example) started at 3pm and ended at 2-59pm the next day?

You say you win 77% of the time, is there a marked differential between the first half of the day and the second half?

Do you really have losers at the end of the day but not at the beginning?

Something doesn't add up here, but there is absolutely no logic in trading a race because you lost in the previous race, but not trading it when you've won.

If you make a 5% profit per race you would be doubling your bank every 15 races odd!
Atho55
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I have the same trouble with my automation rules going t*ts up usually around 16:30 ish. Best time is usually between 14:00 and 15:00. Weird I know but for me at least, it`s a fact, they do.

Keep records and just stop trading if the bad zone can be identified.
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