My Journey, day by day

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Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:01 pm
fair enough, cant delete - line in the sand drawn, apologies.

Today with very few races on the card im concentrating on one thing - Shaun mentioned my avg loss / avg win etc and he's so right. let the winners run, cut the losers - age old advice. that's my focus now. I wont be going for the 1 or 2 ticks anymore and will be looking to cut the losers reasonably fast and let the winners run.

I also noticed that i was often placing back bets at crossover points. i've watched a few videos of this and note that most of them concentrate on laying at the points but it always seems to be when the price is falling to an xover rather than when price is rising to an xover. I saw this happen on the last race, price fell to 3.85 and did a reverse for a quick five tick trade.

couple of questions:

1) is it more effective to lay when at an xover regardless of the prior direction?

2) is there a way to stop betangel switching to the one click screen just after the five minute warning? is there a setting somewhere? cos it's really annoying!


That's better .. I'm sure we will pull you up if you return to you " alter ego " not nice to see .. really isn't

when I profile a race I tend to look for " drifters and most of my trades start with a lay bet .. but initially it is good to keep things simple and do one or the other .. you prefer to look for horses likely to shorten

Do you just just trade using the ladder interface ?
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Yes, just the ladder. first three runners in view. I have quite a few screens so have six charts on one - the long term chart for each of the first 3 and a candle chart for each too, the ladders on another screen, watchlist on a third and now the video feed on the 4th

i did a bit of dutching a week or so ago with some success but found the stakes too high for comfort, always waiting for the outlier to come and screw me. (which it did eventually)

I'm most comfortable with the ladder
Halliday
Posts: 460
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:28 pm
Yes, just the ladder. first three runners in view. I have quite a few screens so have six charts on one - the long term chart for each of the first 3 and a candle chart for each too, the ladders on another screen, watchlist on a third and now the video feed on the 4th

i did a bit of dutching a week or so ago with some success but found the stakes too high for comfort, always waiting for the outlier to come and screw me. (which it did eventually)

I'm most comfortable with the ladder
So you've decided to watch the races .. do you find it informative ?
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

only as far as how long i have past the start time to get out :)

i don't find the video's high enough definition to make out who is who. there is commentary tho which may be useful. tme will tell
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Today's results - after a bollocking for being a dick :D Pretty happy with it really, managed to let winners run and i did cut losers short.

Last race of the day i saw some opportunity to lay first so did so with tiny stakes - meant very little in money but it got my feet wet. I layed (laid?) the fav at 1.89 and out after some shuffling at 1.93 for 21p then thought that the outsider would drift so layed it at 14 and got out at 12.5 - overall a 4p loss on the market but happy that i spotted when both were on the cusp of changing trend and got out quickly.

With the earlier races too, i let them run based on my TA but with a 10 - 20% target on stake which hit twice for profits.

I did have the live feeds up (when i remembered to start them) - interesting to watch the difference between the actual horse position and the position on the in play trader. was also a nice pointer on how long after the start time you had to get out of a trade. Not sure that it was any use at this point but i'll keep it up

overall happy today. - Ronnie played a blinder against Dott too - 4 - 0 battering!

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:01 pm
1) is it more effective to lay when at an xover regardless of the prior direction?
The tick size changes on crossovers. If you're backing first, a one tick loss is double(ish) a one tick win. No such issue around traditional odds points that aren't also crossovers, these are equally interesting.

That's another way these markets differ, not all ticks are equal. These sports markets are much more interesting and complex than vanilla financials. ;)
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:06 pm
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 3:01 pm
1) is it more effective to lay when at an xover regardless of the prior direction?
The tick size changes on crossovers. If you're backing first, a one tick loss is double(ish) a one tick win. No such issue around traditional odds points that aren't also crossovers, these are equally interesting.

That's another way these markets differ, not all ticks are equal. These sports markets are much more interesting and complex than vanilla financials. ;)
I understand the xovers Shaun, I watched some vids from caan berry the other day where he was actively laying BECAUSE of the crossovers - but in his videos all the markets were heading down to 4's or 6's - what is the general advice when heading UP to them? is it still a predominantly lay oppotunity? or is this a silly question because you just don't know unless you are watching the ladder?

Maybe they are just good exit points when going up?
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

My advice regarding crossover price points is to ignore any advice about crossover price points in horseracing. They may well have acted as resistance points in the past but in multi runner horseracing markets with x-matching in place they have no real value and won't affect the direction the money is flowing.
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Glad you are viewing the video. Essential at this time of year with so many delayed starts. You'll also notice bot activity is affected by the delays.

All part of why seasonality is an issue here too, 'sell in May and go away, don't come back till St. Ledger's day' used to be the city mantra in my day, but it's almost the exact opposite here.

As for that question about crossover exits etc, no simple answer I'm afraid but they are often significant support/resistance points but not like they used to be.

Good plan to try letting the profits run, in weak markets momentum is king. Not so relevant in races with exposed horses which can snap back to realistic value in a heartbeat.
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SeaHorseRacing
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spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 5:17 pm
My advice regarding crossover price points is to ignore any advice about crossover price points in horseracing. They may well have acted as resistance points in the past but in multi runner horseracing markets with x-matching in place they have no real value and won't affect the direction the money is flowing.

All though I agree to some extent I have to oppose, I find some crossover points really strong, especially on a drifting horse. A drifting horse heading towards 6, a lot of the time it will resist there and reverse, I find the xover points very helpful in reading a market rather using the change in increments as an advantage.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Crossover points are something I only think of when scalping - there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:38 pm
there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
Isn't that exactly what I said earlier about the tick sizes?
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:05 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Wed Feb 28, 2018 8:38 pm
there's a disadvantage to backing at 4 for a one or two tick profit, but an advantage to laying.
Isn't that exactly what I said earlier about the tick sizes?
Yes, but it's not the first, and certainly not the last time comments will be repeated on this forum. ;)
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

So seahorse believes there's resistance at those price points but Derek wants to lay at those points, think I'll stick to my own view and go with the market flow rather than think price points dictate the direction.
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

i think the forex trading skills will see you well .. end of the day not many can predict a winner ..the trading indicators ie graphs do provide best guide as to were the money is going, no matter what horse , on my experience i know that the time lapse isnt real time ie split second delays .. were the refresh rate may slightly hesitate from the server.. we only work with what we are given the servers can hold things up not saying on purpose but due to high demands of information..
i have not seen any winning horse beat backing auto at 1.01 so long as lay price is 1.05 but return is poor ..
if it went pear shaped dont blame me as been ok when ive monitored it .. if we all knew what we were doing we wouldnt be here .. risk is the traders own choice of path ..i enjoy reading the forum ... so many talented people on here ..just wished id learned excel and more to be able to write my own weight of money indicators .
good luck with the venture into the racing trading world ...may your journey prove prosperous :)
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