General discussion : My Journey, day by day

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threedogs
Posts: 37
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

Thu Mar 01, 2018 2:13 pm

With reference to the crossover price points I am told that some traders do nothing else but wait around those points to lay when the price is moving through and make a decent living and I suppose the disadvantage is if the price reverses you have to scratch fast or sometimes make a small loss ...
Of course you would need patience haha ...

Derek27
Posts: 1968
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Thu Mar 01, 2018 4:51 pm

spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Mar 01, 2018 11:41 am
So seahorse believes there's resistance at those price points but Derek wants to lay at those points, think I'll stick to my own view and go with the market flow rather than think price points dictate the direction.
I didn't say I want to lay at those prices, I just stated the advantage/disadvantage. It only really applies to scalping, if you're swinging there's little difference.

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:14 pm

No trading yesterday (of course)

Today I traded the first race - went out for a liquid lunch with the wife, then traded the last race.

Nothing learned today really apart from both were lay trades which i'm warming to, i just get turned off by the liability and margin requirements - this too shall pass.

Last race was interesting, I really wanted to lay the fav down at low odds but just didnt see the value with the size of stake needed to turn a profit so instead i opted to lay 'Multitalented' at 8.6 and closed when it reversed at 9.2 - it went as high as 9.8 at which point i should really have closed because of the xover point. but still a profit is a profit.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:09 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:14 pm
i just get turned off by the liability and margin requirements
Your liability is no different unless you're letting your loses run further. You set your exit/stop (albeit just mentally) when you open the position (maybe 0.5% of your bank or some point where the trade has broken down) and which side is open first makes no difference. It's your exposure to the risk of systemic failure that's increased. But I assume you have a backup process waiting to go (ups, alt internet, BD account etc).

There's no margin requirement beyond your maximum liability.

Also you shouldn't be closing just because you're reaching a crossover. If it keeps going then the incremental gains only get better. You should be constantly assessing all available information rather than setting targets which (with due respect) don't appear to be based on any concrete research.

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:18 pm

Re that closing at crossover thing, what you could have done is to reduce your size and lock in some profit.

Because sports markets don't have a transaction charge it's fairly std practice to modulate your sizing in accordance with your confidence far more often than you would have done in fx.

I don't know what max trade size you are using but if it was say a tenner, put your preset on 2 quid and strengthen or weaken your position as the trade progresses. Not every couple of seconds obviously but as the need arises.

Are you still so sure these markets are just like any other?

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm

Sorry Shaun, my description was flawed - i meant the use of account margin, for example i couldn't actually place a lay trade of £50 at low odds because of the size of my bank (now 550) - so what i meant was the margin required (you know what i mean) on lays your liability is higher whereas with backs you can back whatever is in your account.

regards exits i did actually scale out - the lay was £20 and i exited in stages of a fiver, initially at a few ticks to widen the ladder profit and then at i think 9.6, 9.8 and the final fiver at 9.2

I used to do this on forex at one time but in forex it was always better to let the entire amount run - these markets are indeed different due to the short expiry and as such increased volatility - it's better than forex in that way because you are in a trade and out fast - no real option to screw yourself holding onto losers for hours if you catch my drift.

on the downside is the liquidity and ability to get matched - forex as you know has tons of this needing the best part of a yard to move a tick.

I didn't have a transaction charge on forex either,just the spread on the brokers and ecn's i used but the spreads of 1-2 pips are a lot more than ticks on this. I had one ecn that i used with commissions but that was offset by often seeing negative spreads and typical spreads of 0.2 pips on liquid currencies like the euro. it all evens out though - for my own trading i use spreadbetting shops if and cmc to avoid the cap gains.

thanks for the input, nice to know i'm on the right side with scaling out.

Problem I have is scaling in - right now i just can't do it - once it moves in my direction it's all about the exit. Scaling in is something i need to practice - any fool knows when you are right to bet more not less, but the shortness of the trends on bf makes it difficult for me to gauge if i'm adding at the top.

I can scale in, but only if im committed to the direction and it moves against me - this isn't scaling in a such but averaging in. Now then can i tell your grandmother how to suck eggs :D

i'm guessing scaling in will come in time.

Thanks again.

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jimibt
Posts: 1078
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:52 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm
Problem I have is scaling in - right now i just can't do it - once it moves in my direction it's all about the exit. Scaling in is something i need to practice - any fool knows when you are right to bet more not less, but the shortness of the trends on bf makes it difficult for me to gauge if i'm adding at the top.

I can scale in, but only if im committed to the direction and it moves against me - this isn't scaling in a such but averaging in. Now then can i tell your grandmother how to suck eggs :D

i'm guessing scaling in will come in time.

Thanks again.
tbh - i can't actually think how best to say this. what i want to express is that the market (irrespective of modulation) is boxed into a (roughly) 100% book% *box*. what this means in practice (in pre in particular) is that with judicious use of excel (and/or .net etc) you can start to measure the *piston effect* of one runner moving in vs another moving out. given that we have *normally* no more than 3 contenders making up 80-90% of the book it means that *we* can measure these machinations..

In short, start to look and observe correlations between closely opposing runners. if you can figure it in excel, you'll be halfway there to turning those machinations into actions.

In long, once you have a handle on this you may be able to trade it effectively in a manual way 1st, followed by an automated strategy once you figure how to let go of the emotional aspect of *being there* to babysit your gut feel..

anyway... just a few thoughts

[disclaimer] - i know jack sh!t about *manually* trading markets, so a pinch of salt and a dose of common sense should be applied to the above!!

Halliday
Posts: 327
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:40 pm

Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:16 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:14 pm
No trading yesterday (of course)

Today I traded the first race - went out for a liquid lunch with the wife, then traded the last race.

Nothing learned today really apart from both were lay trades which i'm warming to, i just get turned off by the liability and margin requirements - this too shall pass.

Last race was interesting, I really wanted to lay the fav down at low odds but just didnt see the value with the size of stake needed to turn a profit so instead i opted to lay 'Multitalented' at 8.6 and closed when it reversed at 9.2 - it went as high as 9.8 at which point i should really have closed because of the xover point. but still a profit is a profit.

Image
How do you have the ladder set up . Do you trade with a reverse ladder ?

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:54 pm

Yes. Reverse ladder. Why?

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ShaunWhite
Posts: 2913
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:22 am

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm
but the shortness of the trends on bf makes it difficult for me to gauge if i'm adding at the top.
Hindsight is a beautiful thing, I tend not to do it if it would mean the breakeven got uncomfortably close.
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm
Now then can i tell your grandmother how to suck eggs :D
Ditto. Just bear in mind that they don't all behave the same, every 10 mins there's another puzzle to solve.

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