Flip flopping favourites

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brimson25
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15.50 at Southwell, today. First time I've seen this.

Napping long time favourite, then Hisar smashed in for around 4s to 3s, then back out again. Hugely volatile. Lots if fun. Sadly, no idea why it's happening!
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Dallas
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People are backing one then the other ;)
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brimson25
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It seemed to me that that made the market more volatile, but perhaps I am imagining that, because it all seemed so dramatic like a tug of war.

There's no reason more money should be traded in a hotly contested market. In fact, I guess the opposite is true?
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Derek27
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 3:51 pm
15.50 at Southwell, today. First time I've seen this.

Napping long time favourite, then Hisar smashed in for around 4s to 3s, then back out again. Hugely volatile. Lots if fun. Sadly, no idea why it's happening!
I've seen that happen loads of times! :)
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brimson25
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:D Thanks Dallas!

There often seems to be a consensus moment about favourites - right, thumbs up in it comes; or no we think this is a donkey, drift like a barge. This is the most dramatic example of indecision I've seen. I suppose old hands have seen this loads of times. I just got quite excited by all the activity, apologies this is a bit of a pointless thread.

(As it happens, neither won)
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brimson25
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And of course my handsome, and record pre-horse race trading green of 18p ;)
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Dallas
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:05 pm
It seemed to me that that made the market more volatile, but perhaps I am imagining that, because it all seemed so dramatic like a tug of war.

There's no reason more money should be traded in a hotly contested market. In fact, I guess the opposite is true?
AW markets are generally very weak and volatile so you will get this a lot in these type of markets especially with two short-priced favs but its not a pointless thread if you have never seen it happen before.
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ShaunWhite
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Napping was unexposed but from a respected yard, the rumour mill was in full effect.
Like all opinion polls these days the public appeared to be widely polarised, was just a matter of what order then fans/haters made it out of the bar and down to the ring.....metaphorically of course.
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:06 pm
I've seen that happen loads of times! :)
At your age I suspect there's not much new under the sun. ;)
(actually i've no idea how old you are but assumed you were in the 50+ club too)
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brimson25
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Thanks both, makes sense. I read on the card that napping was unexposed, which fits the pattern I suppose. Lots of guessing, not informed action I suppose.

It's good to have people to talk to who can explain things!
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ShaunWhite
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:11 pm
And of course my handsome, and record pre-horse race trading green of 18p ;)
:mrgreen:
A new pb is a new pb however big it is......from tiny acorns do mighty oaks grow.
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ShaunWhite
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:23 pm
Lots of guessing, not informed action I suppose.
We primates don't especially like uncertainty, we split into two camps both certain that we're right. (I'll quit there before the brexit debate sparks up again)

That's why your average punter doesn't give a monkey's (unintended pun) about value. They back a horse because they think it's going to win, not because they think it's going to win 4.63 times out of 10. Savvy people who try to migrate punters to exchanges on the lure of value don't understand the minds of the audience, because their own mind is so hard-wired in the other way, ie value being the sun, moon and stars.
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Derek27
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brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:11 pm
And of course my handsome, and record pre-horse race trading green of 18p ;)
How I miss the days of trading with a £25 bank, when you could be pleased with an 80p profit, or the worse thing that could happen is that you lose £2. :)
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ShaunWhite
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Derek27 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:55 pm
brimson25 wrote:
Tue Mar 06, 2018 4:11 pm
And of course my handsome, and record pre-horse race trading green of 18p ;)
How I miss the days of trading with a £25 bank, when you could be pleased with an 80p profit, or the worse thing that could happen is that you lose £2. :)
Everyone's different I guess, I found losing £2 on a £25 bank every bit as painful as losing £100 with a £1000 bank.
Losing money just hurts your wallet (unless you're daft enough to have next month's rent sat in your bf account), it's the feeling of failure that drives a dagger through your heart.
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brimson25
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There's a comment above from Derek, which has got me thinking. (Sorry, can't work out how to do the quotes thing).

My trading bank is £500, not £25. So, suddenly I wonder in trying to be really disciplined, I'm actually being way too nitty? I'm currently using £5 stakes, so obviously 1% of my bank. I'm thinking I'd feel ok with a maximum liability on any one market of around 4%. I hate losing anything, as you say, because it's a mark of something going wrong, I'd like to build aggressively, but I don't want to wreck my confidence. I guess that's an age-old trade-off.

I had hoped to find rules about best practice on this stuff, but but people tend to be very delphic and enigmatic about their banks, and their bankroll management. (Or perhaps I'm looking in the wrong places). And perhaps there are no rules really, for what is individual risk tolerance.

Cheers for all your comments today all, much appreciated.
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