My Journey, day by day

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hmsnaveen95
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Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:15 am
Location: Chennai, India
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Cheers Man, you came with great ideas and it risky also. I wish you to reach your desires.
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Yesterday I had an appointment at hospital with the chemo guy - didnt do any trading whatsoever, just went for a loooong liquid lunch with the wife.

Today started out poorly with YET ANOTHER fuck up with closing and moving to the next race. what was a small loser of around two quid went to £22 in the red. the safety servant saved me from what could have been worse.

This time I decided to stay on the horse (pun intended) and just take each race one at a time - no checking of P&L until the end of the day and as it turned out I did ok as shown below.

My style has changed significantly since I began a couple of weeks ago and I now have slightly increased stakes (£15) and will place multiples of those in the market if i'm confident with a view to scaling out. also my extra positions are no longer an averaging in (although some are) but I also take extra trades as price goes in my favor too. That's took some getting used to but i'm getting happier doing it now.

I must admit that I don't feel that i'm learning much about the different kind of races with a few exceptions - I like maidens and novices because you get larger swings (right or wrong folks?) Handicap races seem to move less and people seem to be fixed around a certain price point give or take say 6 ticks either way. The opportunities there seem smaller in comparison.

I note that NHF races are now running, is that the start of what they call the 'flat season' - sorry if the question is silly. I've not really worked out the best way to handle flat races yet so still learning there.

All in all quite a full card for me today. Any constructive comments are gratefully received

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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:17 pm

I must admit that I don't feel that i'm learning much about the different kind of races with a few exceptions - I like maidens and novices because you get larger swings (right or wrong folks?) Handicap races seem to move less and people seem to be fixed around a certain price point give or take say 6 ticks either way. The opportunities there seem smaller in comparison.

I note that NHF races are now running, is that the start of what they call the 'flat season' - sorry if the question is silly. I've not really worked out the best way to handle flat races yet so still learning there.
You've hit the nail quiet well on the head there.

Novices and maidens are the most volatile races and will produce the large swings where as H'caps (because more form is known about the horse) are much steadier and will often just stay within a defined price range just as you have noticed. These type of races are still tradable but require a different approach ie, they suit scalping (nipping in and out for 1-3 ticks) rather than a longer-term swing trade.

The turf Flat season starts in April, the NHF races are just jumps horses having a go on flat, these races tend to be as volatile as maidens and novices

Ignoring your first result of the day the rest you were very consistant and it looks like you were able to put that first race cockup out of mind and just get on with it so well done and keep it up
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Thanks Dallas.

Must admit tho i've not seen much volatility in the nhf races i'v traded - maybe i'm studying the wrong horse too much!

Thanks again
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Just take it easy this week. The week before a big meeting can be a bit ify. You'll have seen some pretty wild markets today but things should be... should be settling down soon as the liquidity picks up. Cheltenham will be an eye opener for you.

You don't need to be weighed down with info but try these links to brief descriptions of the types of horse race and horse racing grades
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napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

jimibt wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:52 pm
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm
Problem I have is scaling in - right now i just can't do it - once it moves in my direction it's all about the exit. Scaling in is something i need to practice - any fool knows when you are right to bet more not less, but the shortness of the trends on bf makes it difficult for me to gauge if i'm adding at the top.

I can scale in, but only if im committed to the direction and it moves against me - this isn't scaling in a such but averaging in. Now then can i tell your grandmother how to suck eggs :D

i'm guessing scaling in will come in time.

Thanks again.
tbh - i can't actually think how best to say this. what i want to express is that the market (irrespective of modulation) is boxed into a (roughly) 100% book% *box*. what this means in practice (in pre in particular) is that with judicious use of excel (and/or .net etc) you can start to measure the *piston effect* of one runner moving in vs another moving out. given that we have *normally* no more than 3 contenders making up 80-90% of the book it means that *we* can measure these machinations..

In short, start to look and observe correlations between closely opposing runners. if you can figure it in excel, you'll be halfway there to turning those machinations into actions.

In long, once you have a handle on this you may be able to trade it effectively in a manual way 1st, followed by an automated strategy once you figure how to let go of the emotional aspect of *being there* to babysit your gut feel..

anyway... just a few thoughts

[disclaimer] - i know jack sh!t about *manually* trading markets, so a pinch of salt and a dose of common sense should be applied to the above!!
Ok, let's take an ideal situation where there are two runners 2.0 each. We know that if one goes 1.5 than another should go 3.0 to keep book at 100%. But there is crossmatcher and we will not see the situation (preoff) when one goes 1.5 (let's say lay 1.49 - back 1.5) and other stays near 2.0 (let's say lay 1.98 - back 2.0 or a little bit higher) for a short time.
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities. Or is there another scenario with more than two runners?
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

napshnap wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:05 am
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities.
Mmm it's not really killing opportunities for us mere mortals, if BF weren't doing it then the trading elite would be mopping them all up with their bespoke systems housed in buildings next to the exchange. When that tenner shows up which unbalances the book, who do you think is going to nab it?

..in danger of spoiling OST's thread here by going off topic but I think what jimi is telling you is that in any given instant you won't find an over/underound but as all prices are on the move they can be cherry picked.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:20 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:05 am
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities.
Mmm it's not really killing opportunities for us mere mortals, if BF weren't doing it then the trading elite would be mopping them all up with their bespoke systems housed in buildings next to the exchange. When that tenner shows up which unbalances the book, who do you think is going to nab it?

Betfair's cross matcher sees the money at source before it's even offered on the site for others to match, they then cherry pick out any value and send the scraps to the exchange. The trading elite as you call them may well beat you to it but not all of them will and they're then left in a situation with an unbalanced book so leave liquidty on the exchange. The markets worked perfectly OK prior to the x-matcher being introduced, only effect I've noticed is lack of liquidty and less opportunities.
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Poor day today, started off with toothache at 4am - codeine, paracetamol and ibuprofen, repeated dose again at 11am.

early races ok but then a visit to the dentist inbetween - felt weird cos of the drugs too, might have overdone it.

anyway, clearly affected me today although it's no excuse, should have had the day off - ended up shit as below.

lesson for the day - when not feeling well, just take the day off.

did watch derren brown's 'the push' on Netflix in between some races - brilliant show and a prime example of what people will do when put under social pressure - really recommend that you watch it as it does have parallels with what punters do in gambling.

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ShaunWhite
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Original-Soultrader wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:31 pm
did watch derren brown's 'the push' on Netflix in between some races
What time frame are you trading over? I never find that there's any 'between' even when there's only one meeting, unless I deliberately plan to miss some for some reason.
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

i don't tend to trade races where the front runners are too close at low odds - saw a few of those today so had time and then just watched it all :) I like to trade above 3
Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Friday then - pretty good day in between doorbells ringing etc! - Had enough now so calling it a day and possibly a week, don't really like trading saturdays (i know, i know)

I think i've found an edge - been looking t it for a few days now and it seems pretty consistent.

Regards profits today i'm still cutting them too short on many occasions - on some i get it spot on - so if i go for the extra profits and let it run longer then i have to be sure that those where i get it spot on are less than the profits gained by letting it run.

hmmmm, spreadsheet needed i think

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spreadbetting
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Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Looking good, don't go overstretching yourself for extra profits this early on, no one is every going to hit the peaks and troughs spot on. Concentrate on the consistency and making sure your edge exists, you can look at maximising profits later on.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

It looks like you could be one of those really irritating people who just 'get it'. I prefered your postings showing how you'd f@cked it up.
;)
Have a good weekend, take it easy.
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MemphisFlash
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Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

hmmmm, spreadsheet needed i think


something similar to this i think would suffice for you.
I use this on the greyhounds

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