General discussion : My Journey, day by day

A place to discuss anything.
Post Reply
napshnap
Posts: 103
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:05 am

jimibt wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:52 pm
Original-Soultrader wrote:
Fri Mar 02, 2018 9:15 pm
Problem I have is scaling in - right now i just can't do it - once it moves in my direction it's all about the exit. Scaling in is something i need to practice - any fool knows when you are right to bet more not less, but the shortness of the trends on bf makes it difficult for me to gauge if i'm adding at the top.

I can scale in, but only if im committed to the direction and it moves against me - this isn't scaling in a such but averaging in. Now then can i tell your grandmother how to suck eggs :D

i'm guessing scaling in will come in time.

Thanks again.
tbh - i can't actually think how best to say this. what i want to express is that the market (irrespective of modulation) is boxed into a (roughly) 100% book% *box*. what this means in practice (in pre in particular) is that with judicious use of excel (and/or .net etc) you can start to measure the *piston effect* of one runner moving in vs another moving out. given that we have *normally* no more than 3 contenders making up 80-90% of the book it means that *we* can measure these machinations..

In short, start to look and observe correlations between closely opposing runners. if you can figure it in excel, you'll be halfway there to turning those machinations into actions.

In long, once you have a handle on this you may be able to trade it effectively in a manual way 1st, followed by an automated strategy once you figure how to let go of the emotional aspect of *being there* to babysit your gut feel..

anyway... just a few thoughts

[disclaimer] - i know jack sh!t about *manually* trading markets, so a pinch of salt and a dose of common sense should be applied to the above!!
Ok, let's take an ideal situation where there are two runners 2.0 each. We know that if one goes 1.5 than another should go 3.0 to keep book at 100%. But there is crossmatcher and we will not see the situation (preoff) when one goes 1.5 (let's say lay 1.49 - back 1.5) and other stays near 2.0 (let's say lay 1.98 - back 2.0 or a little bit higher) for a short time.
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities. Or is there another scenario with more than two runners?

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 2943
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:20 pm

napshnap wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:05 am
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities.
Mmm it's not really killing opportunities for us mere mortals, if BF weren't doing it then the trading elite would be mopping them all up with their bespoke systems housed in buildings next to the exchange. When that tenner shows up which unbalances the book, who do you think is going to nab it?

..in danger of spoiling OST's thread here by going off topic but I think what jimi is telling you is that in any given instant you won't find an over/underound but as all prices are on the move they can be cherry picked.
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1454
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:08 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:20 pm
napshnap wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:05 am
Crossmatcher is killing this kind of opportunities.
Mmm it's not really killing opportunities for us mere mortals, if BF weren't doing it then the trading elite would be mopping them all up with their bespoke systems housed in buildings next to the exchange. When that tenner shows up which unbalances the book, who do you think is going to nab it?

Betfair's cross matcher sees the money at source before it's even offered on the site for others to match, they then cherry pick out any value and send the scraps to the exchange. The trading elite as you call them may well beat you to it but not all of them will and they're then left in a situation with an unbalanced book so leave liquidty on the exchange. The markets worked perfectly OK prior to the x-matcher being introduced, only effect I've noticed is lack of liquidty and less opportunities.

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:31 pm

Poor day today, started off with toothache at 4am - codeine, paracetamol and ibuprofen, repeated dose again at 11am.

early races ok but then a visit to the dentist inbetween - felt weird cos of the drugs too, might have overdone it.

anyway, clearly affected me today although it's no excuse, should have had the day off - ended up shit as below.

lesson for the day - when not feeling well, just take the day off.

did watch derren brown's 'the push' on Netflix in between some races - brilliant show and a prime example of what people will do when put under social pressure - really recommend that you watch it as it does have parallels with what punters do in gambling.

Image

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 2943
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:32 pm

Original-Soultrader wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:31 pm
did watch derren brown's 'the push' on Netflix in between some races
What time frame are you trading over? I never find that there's any 'between' even when there's only one meeting, unless I deliberately plan to miss some for some reason.

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:46 pm

i don't tend to trade races where the front runners are too close at low odds - saw a few of those today so had time and then just watched it all :) I like to trade above 3

Original-Soultrader
Posts: 67
Joined: Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:19 am

Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:35 pm

Friday then - pretty good day in between doorbells ringing etc! - Had enough now so calling it a day and possibly a week, don't really like trading saturdays (i know, i know)

I think i've found an edge - been looking t it for a few days now and it seems pretty consistent.

Regards profits today i'm still cutting them too short on many occasions - on some i get it spot on - so if i go for the extra profits and let it run longer then i have to be sure that those where i get it spot on are less than the profits gained by letting it run.

hmmmm, spreadsheet needed i think

Image

spreadbetting
Posts: 1454
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:41 pm

Looking good, don't go overstretching yourself for extra profits this early on, no one is every going to hit the peaks and troughs spot on. Concentrate on the consistency and making sure your edge exists, you can look at maximising profits later on.

User avatar
ShaunWhite
Posts: 2943
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:44 pm

It looks like you could be one of those really irritating people who just 'get it'. I prefered your postings showing how you'd f@cked it up.
;)
Have a good weekend, take it easy.

User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 594
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:24 pm

hmmmm, spreadsheet needed i think


something similar to this i think would suffice for you.
I use this on the greyhounds

today.JPG
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.

Post Reply

Return to “General discussion”

  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests