Quit my job to do this as a living!

[max_usted]

Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that?

Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.

[blackmoor83]

OK, but what I'm getting at is this:

Why can't anyone do this for similar returns?

The market doesn't just give people £5k a month. So what's different about your approach? Taking losses ( or not) doesn't differentiate to the tune of 60 grand a year tax free. It never has done and it never will.

There must be something special about your strategy. What's the missing piece in the puzzle?

I wouldn’t say my strategy is impossible but I do think the taking smaller losses rather than a huge loss is the biggest key factor that’s where 95% of people fail on betfair whether it’s footy or horse racing knowing when to exit a trade is the key!

I did find a site which I can’t seem to get hold of now which had the statistics for all the matches in the prem league I think showing that percentage of games finishing 3-3 was 0.90% roughly. So 1 in 90! Obviously if I’m taking odds of 50 or 60/1 I’m getting good value & a slight edge.

One game last week PSG v real was 35/1 to finish 3-3 finished 1-2 I exited the match at 60 minute stage took £110 cash out rather than wait for £150. I saw the value as champ league knockout games and this one I thought would be tight! PSG were missing Neymar plus I thought Madrid would b more defensive.

I know the markets don’t give you 5k a month I have been working hard each day finding the matches and researching what games will in my opinion be low scoring. But like I said before I think the key is accepting not going to get it right every game and taking the loss ad not losing a huge amount on one match....

[blackmoor83]

Aahhhh, now we're getting to the nitty gritty.

Anyway, I'm gonna chuck it all in on Monday morning to pick up my £60k p.a. tax free for spending 90 seconds a day picking football matches, and then siting on my fat ass watching them on TV while clicking a mouse just once a week if I feel I have to.

What's not to like about that?

Yes quite.

Sorry my original point I meant to make clear (but didn't) in my reply to you above was that obviously (as you know) it is theoretically possible to use this one (very particular) strategy and make money if you consistently make good match selections, and show self-discipline in taking losses according to set criteria - i.e. these are the factors/differentials which could allow you to sit on your fat ass and collect £60k per year (while other people are not able to do so).

And he did say he was watching all games via live feed (technique for match selection) and was taking losses according to set criteria. So I guess he kind of did outline what, in his view, are the factors are that have meant he has become profitable.

I'd worry about the capacity for two bank-breaking trades in a row still - and I really think that an approach involving just one (very particular) strategy is seriously restrictive to taking advantage of all the opportunities that present themselves while trading football. Each to their own though.

Hi max, I hear what you are saying about 2 high scoring matches on the spin could be disastrous i completely agree with that if I was letting every match run no matter what to the end of 90 mins.

I’m a huge fan of cashing out for either profit or losses. Gets the money out for another trade and also protects against crazy last 10 minutes at times.

I don’t believe I’m anything special at all I do have a good knowledge on football though 30 years and failed many times in the past.

I hear what you say about many other markets I have dabbled in trading matches pre kick off with a bit of success but find I would need a much bigger bank to make this more worth while. What’s your strategy are you on mainly footy?

[blackmoor83]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

[henbet22]

Nice one Blackmoor and good luck with your system. I will give it a go on Liv vs Utd in the hope Mou parks the bus.... I think it could work well on the golf so all good and thank you very much All the best.

[wearthefoxhat]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

[blackmoor83]

This was what I mentioned before average chance of a game finished 3-3 was 102/1

There was an article on Laying the 3-3 correct score from Total Betting Club. I've got tons of PDF's nearly 10 years old, nothing recently though, so I'll have a mooch around...no idea which issue it was in though.

The "research" showed it was possible to win using this method in the long term. As said, game selection and exit points are important to winning with this strategy...but also for many others strategies too.

Good to hear your making some money

Be good if you find them to have a look would be an interesting read. Thanks for the message, do you mainly trade football if so which markets are you into?

[blackmoor83]

Nice one Blackmoor and good luck with your system. I will give it a go on Liv vs Utd in the hope Mou parks the bus.... I think it could work well on the golf so all good and thank you very much All the best.

That was my sport growing up the golf ( was the year below Justin Rose who also played for Hampshire) unfortunately never got to his level of plus 5 handicap I was a mere 1 handicap! Those guys are on another level!

If you do have a go just need to make sure cash out when you can etc etc. That’s the biggest thing I have learned in the numerous years before I would rather lose a 2or3k bet than just take the £200-300 cash out loss I was always hoping it would go my way!
At times it would but the bullet would always get me eventually.

[trader44]

"’mostly been a tail of doing ok for a bit then blowing my bank this pattern repeated for years "
experienced this myself for a while. the only way to be steady is to have some trading rules and not break them under any circumstances.it sounds like you have some ability to make money but in my oipinion any one can make money for a period but doing it long term is on another level and the only way to get to that level is to make some rules and UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCED DO NOT BREAK THEM,

i read this somewhere and have it on my desk in front of me and read it before trading every day

" the difference between a successful trader and a bankrupt one
is what they do when faced with a red book .".

listen to the people on here they have been there done it and are successful

[spreadbetting]

I do love the way everyone states game selection is the key as if the market makers just offer generic prices for every 3-3 scoreline, bit like punters in the bookies backing odds on favourites because they win more often.

I'd imagine you should have quite a bit of data by now, so might be worth number crunching it to see if you'd actually have won more punting than trading and if you are beating the book on your 3-3 scores.

[blackmoor83]

I do love the way everyone states game selection is the key as if the market makers just offer generic prices for every 3-3 scoreline, bit like punters in the bookies backing odds on favourites because they win more often.

I'd imagine you should have quite a bit of data by now, so might be worth number crunching it to see if you'd actually have won more punting than trading and if you are beating the book on your 3-3 scores.

According to the stats have the table earlier on this thread a 3-3 score comes along every 102 games on average done 800 games now. So in that theory should have had around 8 3-3 results in the 800 games I have picked only 2 have finished that way both of these games I was out once the score line reached 2-2.

So I would say my selections have been beating the betfair prices. As a hit rate of 2 in 800 makes odds of 400/1 I would say I’m averaging picking games around the 80-100/1 mark I only go for games pre kick off, never under and circumstances go for a game say 1-1 after 30 minutes. I have learned that lesson the hard way in the past.

Obviously I don’t get every game right you can never fully tell but I’m very disciplined and never just let it run hopping for the best.....

I appreciate this sort of thread is similar to the 0-0 strategy which people always harp on about on the betfair forum! But I feel my strategy stands me in good sted! Time will tell

[spreadbetting]

I'm not sure where the actual trading comes in to be honest, it seems you're just picking the outsider in the correct score market and laying it pre off then closing out if the result starts to become a possibility. I'd guess if Betfair still had the 4-4 scoreline you'd be 'trading' that instead. It just deosn't seem from what you've said that you're actively trading the scoreline other than one in and out bet.

I'm not sure you can draw too many conclusions from your 800 bet sample set especially with the expected result being around a 1% chance of occurring. Have you considered the fact that if you are laying 400/1 shots at 100/1 the likelihood is you will be throwing away your opening vaue when you close the bets as they'll just following the odds progression of an expected 100/1 shot especially with the 3-3 scoreline usually being a possibility throughout the whole game.

[LinusP]

Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7

[Cards37]

Applicable to bookmaker odds but relavent none the less:

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-art ... 8f6g8x66t7

Great read, thanks Linus.

[LeTiss]

Forget about Premium Charge - you won't pay tax, and PC only comes into force when you are in the money, so cross that bridge when you get to it. I'm assuming that if you've been making £5k a month recently, but are still not paying PC yet, then you must have blown lots of money previously. Therefore, tread carefully because you clearly have a reckless side when things are not going well