In play trading ----

[Ambettor]

Hi All
I've watched some of Peter’s video tutorials & gleaned a lot of good info from them, i can see it's a long road though.. I started with the BetAngel trader trial a few days ago and won approx 50-£90 pretend money each day for 5 days (£340) except yesterday… backing mostly favourites just before the race went in play then clicking for a profit when a market made 15-30% of the stake, (£10) - i was letting everything go in play but I know from PW's vids that it’s really not a good idea.. So...
Yesterday I stopped in play trading and switched to pre off trades. I traded 15 races, won on 3 (very tiny amounts) and lost on the other 12…. (£-24 for the afternoon session) ) So, it’s back to the drawing board. I really want to learn how to trade efficiently, but to do this, I think I need a lot more direction. I need to try and understand the likelihood of odds moving in a specific direction.. does that just come with experience, or is there a methodology I need to learn? What about Pacecards? Loads of info but somewhat confusing, Does anyone use them to good advantage? Are they really helpful in understanding what’s happening in any given market? So, any advice (apart from suicide) would be gratefully received…

[ANGELS15]

you mention pre-off race trading and whether pacecards would be useful. I take it that you intend to back selections pre-off time and then trade them in running? If that is not the case then please ignore what I'm going to advise next. If you are intending to trade in running then it is possible to have an idea of the way a horse's odds will likely move in a race. Try this as an exercise it may even take a few days to find a suitable race. Look for a field of around 4 - 7 runners. Read the form from either the racing post or some other reliable form guide like timeform or pacecards. You are looking for a habitual front runner whose odds tend to shorten in running. For this exercise you want to find just the one horse in a race that is the likely front runner. Avoid short priced favourites as in order for their odds to shorten enough for this exercise they'll practically have to win. Try to DOB your selection. Peter's videos explain what DOBBING is and how to create automation to do it. In fact you don't need automation you can do simple mental arithmetic and place bets manually. You want to back your selection about a minute before the off. then place a lay bet to go in play. A simple example back selection for £5 @ 5.0, lay bet to go in play £10 @ 3.0. If your horse puts in a decent effort in the race and it's odds drop to 3.0 in running you're guaranteed a profit of £5 even if it loses.

[ANGELS15]

There are many considerations to take into account with this strategy but it can be a very effective one. You need to understand the right kind of races to do it in and importantly the kind of races to avoid. experience will be your teacher

[ANGELS15]

I don't know your background but an understanding of how to read form and spot value will be of great help. If you don't have those skills they can be learnt by watching as many races as you can whilst reading form.

[Ambettor]

Thanks Angels15 – ‘appreciate the advice. I’m new to horse racing, ‘did a bit of Matched betting and Arbing and managed to build a small bank with the intention of learning how to trade.. so, I’m trying to sponge up as much info as I can, - so thanks again. As footnote, Matched betting and Arbing soon get you gubbed unfortunately…. So I think Trading is by far to best option if you have the ability, knowledge, patience, perseverance and luck to become effective. mmmmmm

[northbound]

A simple example back selection for £5 @ 5.0, lay bet to go in play £10 @ 3.0. If your horse puts in a decent effort in the race and it's odds drop to 3.0 in running you're guaranteed a profit of £5 even if it loses.

I have to correct you there. To DOB something, you have to lay at half the odds compared to the back bet.

In your example, back £5 at 5.00, lay £10 at 2.50 (not at 3.00).

[northbound]

So, any advice (apart from suicide) would be gratefully received…

I’ve been trading pre-off racing EVERY DAY FOR ONE YEAR now and haven’t reached constant profitability yet.

Learning is a long process that requires dedication, passion, plenty of screen time and the ability to kill any habit or trait of your personality that leads you to make poor decisions.

At the beginning you’ll probably tend to use simple strategies that return constant small profits, then occasional losses wipe out your winnings, if not your bank.

It happened to me many times in the first six months.

After that, I started to mentally accept that this is a game of wins and losses and the goal is simply to win more than you lose.

So, I started to use trading strategies where losses are similar in size to winnings. A bit like betting on red or black at roulette.

For example, entering trades with £16/32, I usually win or lose £2-5 per trade. Each trade is around 5-15 ticks.

This way I don’t blow banks anymore and haven’t had to deposit any more money into my Betfair account for the past six months.

I got to a sustainable, break even phase. I win around 50% of my trades and lose around 50%.

More importantly, I’m starting to see which entry points have less chance of a positive payout, so the goal has become to improve the quality of my entries, strike out as many losses as possible, get to a point where I win 55-60% of those trades.

Hope this helps.

[ANGELS15]

Remember Northbound exchange odds are inclusive of the stake so backing at 5.0 is actually 4/1 lay at 3.0 is laying at 2/1

[ANGELS15]

In order to be consistently profitable it does help if you can either read or interpret form quite well. It is a skill that can be learned. The important thing is spotting horses which are either overpriced or much bigger on the exchange. A classic example let's say a horse is 12/1 on the bookies show but 22.0 on the exchange (nearly double). If you felt from reading the form that it was capable of putting in a decent effort in the race you could back it at 22.0 and trade it off at 11.0 and it would still look like value. I do this sort of thing on a regular basis manage to have an average strike rate of 60%. Not bragging or anything as that's when the ground falls from under you. It's difficult to maintain a higher strike rate due to the uncertain nature of the way a race may pan out or your horses occasionally being impeded, falling or the occasional slow start.

[northbound]

Remember Northbound exchange odds are inclusive of the stake so backing at 5.0 is actually 4/1 lay at 3.0 is laying at 2/1

DOB means Double Or Bust, which means that you bet £10: you’ll either lose £10 or green up for £10.

Back at 5.00, lay at 2.50, you greenup for £10. It’s a DOB.

Back at 5.00, lay at 3.00, you greenup for £6.66. It’s not a DOB.

[ANGELS15]

Yes you're right what I had meant to give as an example was say back something at 5/1 for £10 potential profit £50, lay in running £20 @ 2/1 potential liability £40 if trade is succesfull win £10 whatever the result. You would think I should know this doing several such trades a day! In my example it should have been exchange odds 6.0 lay odds would be 3.0 to get the DOB.