My trading journey so far (I'd love to hear yours too)

The sport of kings.
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eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

This was originally just going to be a quick "How many markets have you traded?"  thread but I've decided to share a brief version of my story so far.
If nothing else I hope it can provide some idea for new traders of what they could be in for (and how not to do it... ;)).

I'm around the 7,500 markets mark now [6k live, 1k+ practice] -- still significantly down £ overall.

It might seem obvious that this game is about eliminating mistakes but due to the lonely nature of trading, if you're not accountable to anyone but yourself then you can begin to develop bad habits, keep reinforcing them and get yourself in a right mess.

Here's a quick rundown of my journey:
  • First 1k markets I picked things up quickly (ended up with 63% strike rate), had some really good streaks in places during this time but 2 or 3 significant moments here meant overall loss of money
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [--x-------------------] Impossible
  • 1k - 4k Went downhill from here, I discovered all the psychological barriers + became aware of all the problems that I had. Lots of time in the markets (and analysis outside market hours) translated into a good amount of knowledge. Never really managed to change my behavioural patterns despite this though so tended to have good streaks followed by busting the bank (this would happen over and over)
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:  Possible [-------------x--------] Impossible
  • 4k - 6.5k Refining my strategies/trading plan etc., expectancy per trade on the rise but main psychological problems persist, I held the incorrect belief that more time in the markets meant I must be getting closer to righting my wrongs, generally good money management during trading until the right brain took over when facing significant losses (amygdala hijack), created various documentation and began to put together a trading plan and define working processes
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [-----------x----------] Impossible
Had a long break away from the markets here as I realised I didn't need to be at a computer to be improving my trading. (I'm shocked it took me so long to realise this)
  • 6.5k - 7k Begun implementing new behaviours to eliminate bad habits, perfected trading plan (accounts for all possible scenarios) and finally starting to follow it without any major mistakes, realisation that overstaking on any one trade is very inefficient and puts an entire set of results at risk:
    e.g. going past 2x the kelly criterion guarantees failure over the long term
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [--------x-------------] Impossible
  • 7k - present New found confidence in my trading ability due to at last seeing a difference in my results, really focusing on following the process correctly at this stage and eliminating all mistakes. My current goal is for a streak of 500 markets with zero mistakes (around a month's worth of markets). Profit/loss is irrelevant to this goal but it does look likely that I'll end up profitable after 500 mistake-free markets, at which point I look forward to slowly scaling up.
    If not... then, well, I'll be surprised. In that case I'll look to be more selective with my trades until I'm profitable before scaling
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it is for me to eventually trade full time:       Possible [------x---------------] Impossible

It's still relatively early days to see if I can keep my mistakes at bay, but when actively trading it feels much calmer now, I've been using a visualisation technique after every single market which ends in a loss and I no longer have big urges to chase my losses (particularly noticeable during strings). Between that and measuring my tiredness before each market, pretty much all mistakes have disappeared. Getting organised away from the markets has helped too. There's probably a lot more to it behind the scenes than that but those are the recent prevalent factors. Much to nobody's surprise coming from a gambling background has most definitely been to my detriment as after a quick taste of initial success I quickly fell into bad habits and thought it was OK to recover trading losses by taking on more and more risk through overstaking or just straight gambling at times.

I've come to believe that the traits of a successful trader and the traits of a useful human being are not too dissimilar... Combine that with the deep fascination I've developed for these markets it's hard to see me walking away from trading at any point in the near future. I had some pretty terrible experiences where I lost everything I had at times and those were some of my darkest moments, but they are in the past now and have become tangible reminders of why sticking to the process is so absolutely vital. Thankfully my mistakes these days aren't anywhere near as dramatic... I do feel like I've turned a corner in some sense and if I'm honest it's just been naive stubbornness and a growing disinterest in pursuing a traditional working life which has kept me going.

Typing this is beginning to feel like I'm writing a success story or something, but I'm under no illusion that I've still got some ways to go and I find typing things up is a great way to reflect. That being said, it is beginning to feel like the most challenging aspects are behind me which has filled me with promise.


If newer traders only take one thing away from this let it be that there's no amount of knowledge that can fix your behavioural problems. I cannot tell you the sheer number of times I would bust a bank and go on to watch hours upon hours of trading psychology webinars trying to understand why. Thinking back I became aware of all my issues long ago but if you don't change how you act during that moment when you are in a live trade, you will always repeat your mistakes.

I would love to hear how many markets you guys have traded, and any key turning points in your journey, such as how you went from loser to break-even, break-even to profit, or just some realisation you had that really made a difference to your results.

- 8
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

Or "The Neverending Story"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geVYIHOat5o
:P
Read the advice (you'll get it for free - my favourite price.)
You'll need a thick skin, if you can handle "DICKHEAD!!!!!) - you should be ok.
And remember the old mantra:
"This time next year we'll be millionaires Rodney"
-"Only fools 'n horses"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SKAqmqVQ700
Have fun & make money.
;)
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

eightbo wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 3:20 am
This was originally just going to be a quick "How many markets have you traded?"  thread but I've decided to share a brief version of my story so far.
If nothing else I hope it can provide some idea for new traders of what they could be in for (and how not to do it... ;)).

I'm around the 7,500 markets mark now [6k live, 1k+ practice] -- still significantly down £ overall.

It might seem obvious that this game is about eliminating mistakes but due to the lonely nature of trading, if you're not accountable to anyone but yourself then you can begin to develop bad habits, keep reinforcing them and get yourself in a right mess.

Here's a quick rundown of my journey:
  • First 1k markets I picked things up quickly (ended up with 63% strike rate), had some really good streaks in places during this time but 2 or 3 significant moments here meant overall loss of money
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [--x-------------------] Impossible
  • 1k - 4k Went downhill from here, I discovered all the psychological barriers + became aware of all the problems that I had. Lots of time in the markets (and analysis outside market hours) translated into a good amount of knowledge. Never really managed to change my behavioural patterns despite this though so tended to have good streaks followed by busting the bank (this would happen over and over)
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:  Possible [-------------x--------] Impossible
  • 4k - 6.5k Refining my strategies/trading plan etc., expectancy per trade on the rise but main psychological problems persist, I held the incorrect belief that more time in the markets meant I must be getting closer to righting my wrongs, generally good money management during trading until the right brain took over when facing significant losses (amygdala hijack), created various documentation and began to put together a trading plan and define working processes
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [-----------x----------] Impossible
Had a long break away from the markets here as I realised I didn't need to be at a computer to be improving my trading. (I'm shocked it took me so long to realise this)
  • 6.5k - 7k Begun implementing new behaviours to eliminate bad habits, perfected trading plan (accounts for all possible scenarios) and finally starting to follow it without any major mistakes, realisation that overstaking on any one trade is very inefficient and puts an entire set of results at risk:
    e.g. going past 2x the kelly criterion guarantees failure over the long term
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it was for me to eventually trade full time:   Possible [--------x-------------] Impossible
  • 7k - present New found confidence in my trading ability due to at last seeing a difference in my results, really focusing on following the process correctly at this stage and eliminating all mistakes. My current goal is for a streak of 500 markets with zero mistakes (around a month's worth of markets). Profit/loss is irrelevant to this goal but it does look likely that I'll end up profitable after 500 mistake-free markets, at which point I look forward to slowly scaling up.
    If not... then, well, I'll be surprised. In that case I'll look to be more selective with my trades until I'm profitable before scaling
    Rough estimate on how possible I thought it is for me to eventually trade full time:       Possible [------x---------------] Impossible

It's still relatively early days to see if I can keep my mistakes at bay, but when actively trading it feels much calmer now, I've been using a visualisation technique after every single market which ends in a loss and I no longer have big urges to chase my losses (particularly noticeable during strings). Between that and measuring my tiredness before each market, pretty much all mistakes have disappeared. Getting organised away from the markets has helped too. There's probably a lot more to it behind the scenes than that but those are the recent prevalent factors. Much to nobody's surprise coming from a gambling background has most definitely been to my detriment as after a quick taste of initial success I quickly fell into bad habits and thought it was OK to recover trading losses by taking on more and more risk through overstaking or just straight gambling at times.

I've come to believe that the traits of a successful trader and the traits of a useful human being are not too dissimilar... Combine that with the deep fascination I've developed for these markets it's hard to see me walking away from trading at any point in the near future. I had some pretty terrible experiences where I lost everything I had at times and those were some of my darkest moments, but they are in the past now and have become tangible reminders of why sticking to the process is so absolutely vital. Thankfully my mistakes these days aren't anywhere near as dramatic... I do feel like I've turned a corner in some sense and if I'm honest it's just been naive stubbornness and a growing disinterest in pursuing a traditional working life which has kept me going.

Typing this is beginning to feel like I'm writing a success story or something, but I'm under no illusion that I've still got some ways to go and I find typing things up is a great way to reflect. That being said, it is beginning to feel like the most challenging aspects are behind me which has filled me with promise.


If newer traders only take one thing away from this let it be that there's no amount of knowledge that can fix your behavioural problems. I cannot tell you the sheer number of times I would bust a bank and go on to watch hours upon hours of trading psychology webinars trying to understand why. Thinking back I became aware of all my issues long ago but if you don't change how you act during that moment when you are in a live trade, you will always repeat your mistakes.

I would love to hear how many markets you guys have traded, and any key turning points in your journey, such as how you went from loser to break-even, break-even to profit, or just some realisation you had that really made a difference to your results.

- 8
Interesting read.

I decided early on it was worth taking a short cut by paying for advice/guidance on trading.

Decision 1; Bought a paperback ( by wayne bailey) Didn't realise the content was good until I tried real money trades.

Decision 2; Invested in Bet Angel and Peter Webb's Masterclass course. With the right software and mentoring I quickly found out by eliminating bad habit/errors and focussing on certain markets/set ups, I improve my chances of success overall. (no guarantees, but all paid for and on a freeroll)

Decision 3; Develop my own style and market preferences. ie: In-Play (B.A has some very good resources for this) Also dutching on certain markets has been consistent too.

Decision 4; Continue learning through the process and from other mediums.

Number of markets would include, Horse Racing; (I.P and dutching..not so much Pre-trading). Football: (Correct Scores, Match odds, O/U, all IP). Tennis (plan to look at more, although will tread carefully).

Main mantra is; Enjoy the process. I don't mind a grind but if it becomes a chore, take a break.

I noticed you're in my neck of the woods (South West).
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 9:18 am
I noticed you're in my neck of the woods (South West).
WSM/Bristol. Don't know any sports traders in the area at the moment. Theres a trading society at my uni but they just focus on financials. How mundane, right?
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

I see trading Pre Race as puzzle solving to which I’ve made costly mistake after costly mistake, however I’m hopeful I’m nearly there now, with what I’ve learnt so far I don’t think I would be able to trade with any other software, when used to it’s potential I think it’s potent, the trick is how to get the best out of it, I think I’m missing one final piece of that puzzle, however after today I think I may have stumbled across it - not sure but tomorrow should tell me or not.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Korattt wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 5:49 pm
I think I’m missing one final piece of that puzzle, however after today I think I may have stumbled across it - not sure but tomorrow should tell me or not.
There was a great video about a proposed merger of two hedge funds (I'll try & find the vid); but cutting to the chase, the deal didn't go ahead.

Everything had been agreed; however the investment banker brought in to broker the deal couldn't nail down the business model of "hedge fund b". Basically, the traders at hedge fund b couldn't predict how they'd be trading in 3mths time ("this is what we did last year, here's what we do today - totally the opposite").

Was such a fascinating video; & tbh, I think fits exactly with Peter's approach & why he's managed to remain top of his game for so long.

So Korattt, the idea that there's a last piece to the puzzle is wrong.. the puzzle moves! :?
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Ah yes, here's the wiki on the whole concept:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concept_drift

Wish Peter would do an entire video series on this type of stuff!
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

ruthlessimon wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 6:16 pm
Ah yes, here's the wiki on the whole concept:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concept_drift

Wish Peter would do an entire video series on this type of stuff!
Not sure I fully understand this, definitely shoot me a link via PM if you stumble across the video again :)
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

eightbo wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 4:42 pm
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 9:18 am
I noticed you're in my neck of the woods (South West).
WSM/Bristol. Don't know any sports traders in the area at the moment. Theres a trading society at my uni but they just focus on financials. How mundane, right?
I recently watched a you tube documentary on quants. (posted up 5 years ago)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OINqYdkhOAw

That explains things more fully, but I believe there's room in sports trading for a similar approach. You just need a forward thinking university to allow their premises to be used for educational training. I'm sure a lot of the maths is the same, it's just allowing for human behaviour...the unknown.
arbitrage16
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:27 pm

eightbo wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 3:20 am
  • 7k - present New found confidence in my trading ability due to at last seeing a difference in my results, really focusing on following the process correctly at this stage and eliminating all mistakes. My current goal is for a streak of 500 markets with zero mistakes (around a month's worth of markets).
"Amateur traders think losses and being wrong are threats to their well-being. Professionals see them as an opportunity to learn" Yvan B.
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

Le tiss just posted this from Dan Weston
excerpt
FROM DAN WESTON TWEET.jpg
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

arbitrage16 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 9:01 am
"Amateur traders think losses and being wrong are threats to their well-being. Professionals see them as an opportunity to learn" Yvan B.
Indeed. Can't remember who said this but someone I follow referred to successful traders as "professional losers". I loved that statement.

It's all well and good knowing losses aren't a threat but it's a separate part of the brain which gets activated when you actually have to stomach one! :mrgreen:
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 9:55 am
I recently watched a youtube documentary on quants. (posted up 5 years ago)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OINqYdkhOAw
I've just opened this and looking forward to watching it, cheers :)
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

a great watch, thanks for sharing,

as for my journey so to speak it has been one long roller coaster, although it is something I absolutely love doing,

Apologies for the exhaustive post but here goes,

I can't remember when I started looking at trading but it was due to stumbling across both BFBOTMANAGER & Caan's blog & video's on YT, bought CB's Pre Race Guide & Video Pack after earning £100 on BFBM through backing & laying at SP one Saturday, until then I hadn't a clue on horse racing but thought to myself, "it can't be that easy can it?", so I didn't pursue that method through scepticism & looked more to trading manually.

Think this was around October 2014 when I first discovered trading through Caan & during this time I didn't take it that seriously as I was running an online business which was growing & looked to set up a B&M set up to accompany the online set up, things were going quite well as I was doing this the for some reason I started to lose interest in running the business, the B&M idea fell through with the estate agent & the house started looking like a tip what with the stock (Christmas was a nightmare) so I wrapped the business up & looked to trade full time to which I attended a course at Bet Angel HQ down in Hook, rented an office out & basically took the bull by the horns, I'm pretty much a do now & think later kind of guy, in hindsight I took the wrong course, I should've attended the Masterclass instead of the Horse Racing Workshop.

I was pretty stupid really, well very stupid, why?, well because I thought that after going on the course I'd cracked it, the thing is I hadn't taken into consideration all the other stuff that goes into daily trading Pre Race, if I'm honest I think that particular day course could be improved, no disrespect to Dave or Peter but I think more could've been discussed on the mechanics of the markets better, however that's why I think I should've gone on the other course as I think this is gone into more detail there.

There are things with trading that are I think overlooked or easily forgotten about, like for example looking for opportunities that aren't there, getting overconfident, totally misreading markets with similar "fabric" which turn out to be a totally different material, how two days are never the same, how Betfair works in tandem with exchange software, in fact there's loads of stuff that only come to light with experience, so that's why I say use low stakes to start off with, there are so many variables to daliy Pre Race Trading.. so many.

The office idea was a disaster, too much going on in the building, frequent false fire alarms, being able to hear telephone conversations in the corridors, was asked to be moved but it didn't work out so I sacked that off to continue trading from home.

Since leaving the office I've gone back to work twice & quite to do this full time & as I type in a full time job but off sick with I think damaged tendons in left foot, just waiting an MRI Scan so ATM in a position to sit behind my desk full time which has been useful as I have picked up on things during this time.

If I can give anyone any advice to anyone looking to get involved with trading it would be this.

Don't quit your job, save a bundle of cash, say £2k to 3k (or what ever you're comfortable with) & learn HOW the markets work, don't just GUESS where the way the price will go, DON'T get in because you WANT to be RIGHT, if you persist with this you WILL learn HOW the markets move & why, & for gods sake use SMALL stakes because you will be able to learn how the markets move with small stakes, you need to fully understand why things happen.

Trading has at times been incredibly frustrating for me & I've fell in & out of love with it numerous times, however whenever I've come back to it I've learned a little bit more each & every time,

Have to be honest & admit that I've lost a small fortune with pursuing this, more than the aforementioned £2k~£3k, however it's not the amount that bothers me, what does bother me is the amount of time it's taking me to get to a level where I'm able to do this fulltime, and that's why I think I have to travel back down to Hook sometime to confirm what I think what I've learnt from when I was last down there.

Thanks for reading.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Korattt wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 5:27 am

in hindsight I took the wrong course, I should've attended the Masterclass instead of the Horse Racing Workshop.
You probably know more than you realise. I think the brain can reach information overload and if some ideas/thoughts aren't written down or logged somewhere, can be lost in translation or morph into something else.

Some of my better ideas have been produced when I've switched off completely from all things to do with that subject. The brain somehow resets and by reviewing previous notes/work helps me move forward with more juice.

In your case, I'd approach Peter to see if a 121 trading session could be set up. As a previous customer and B.A user, it could be time well spent. Not sure if it's available but that's how I'd approach it.
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 1:00 pm
Korattt wrote:
Fri May 18, 2018 5:27 am

in hindsight I took the wrong course, I should've attended the Masterclass instead of the Horse Racing Workshop.
In your case, I'd approach Peter to see if a 121 trading session could be set up. As a previous customer and B.A user, it could be time well spent. Not sure if it's available but that's how I'd approach it.
I have asked the question but unfortunately he doesn't have the time
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