Today's Horse Racing

The sport of kings.
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FrogThimble
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:26 pm

Korattt wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:18 pm


scalping?
Lay to Back inrunning trades. Races of 9 furlongs or longer only (the last 3 days all are anyway).
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:59 pm
If your handicaps were profitable why did you ditch them? ie why were you looking at the loses without looking at the bottom line.
I'm not one for stagnation. We've all gotta be working & improving on our edges 24/7 isn't that right? Or they'll be stolen from under our noses by Mr. Lightwing? :)

Euler: "So I then developed a strategy that didn't trade at random and noted where the big losses came from. I then started working on striking them out."

(basically, I took that statement literally - maybe I could blame curse of knowledge ;) )

But what I found was that by fiddling around (incorrectly), & trying to improve, can irreparably damage a strategy (either by lack of trades as the edge improves, or lack of scale, or both) - to the point where the time would've been better spend in the sun! 8-) Just how does one know the true limits to a strategy? - massive question that one

Someone like Crazyskier is the perfect example (along with me). Just why can't he solve those scalability problems, & become a top top trader? & when he does try to solve those problems, the edge completely erodes.

I'm very much pro (pre-trade) psychology (i.e. hours prior - analysing data, survivorship bias) - but what you'll find is there's nothing on how to protect yourself from these data biases.
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SeaHorseRacing
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:40 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 6:28 pm
I learnt something from that.
Np :) I remember a while back looking at just my losing races, & noticed a huge proportion came from Hcaps. So I decided to not trade Hcaps; seemed logical. What I noticed was that my results actually got worse. What I failed to see was that the majority of my winners were coming from handicaps (my trade frequency tanked massively) - massive survivorship bias that one.

Yeah can be done if you share the vid (vid description).
I find handicaps very easy to trade usually... but weak class 5/6 where favs are 5+ i just do not bother trading.

Maybe check your results see if the class of the handicap and if the average price of fav makes a difference.
Those race types of mention will sometimes struggle to get 400k matched before the off. Just a waste of time.
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Derek27
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 9:10 pm
Korattt wrote:
Sat Jun 16, 2018 3:18 pm
I just don’t understand why the BHA place races only 5 mins apart when it’s quite obvious it doesn’t work?, I mean it doesn’t really help anyone in the industry does it?
It helps the racecourses, if only 3 per day were allowed to put meetings on, when would they get any paying public through the gate and when would the racecouese staff earn a wage? It's only an issue anyway if you want to watch everything, exclude the rubbish and you're lucky if there's a half decent race every 20mins.
The issue is really the sheer number of horses in training. When planning the racing calendar they have to provide enough fixtures to accommodate the horses, which is why we have so many meetings. I remember back in the early eighty's when we had just two six race cards most weekdays.
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Naffman
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Blame syndicates and racing clubs - amazing how they let 30 'owners' into the parade ring as well
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Derek27
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The worrying thing about sharing a horse with 30 people is - would it just take one idiot to bet against the horse to have the horse or syndicate disqualified?
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
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In order to sort racing to from every level it has to start from the bottom up. There are practically no regulations on breeding. There are a lot of mares out their who can barely get on a walker, who can’t even be saddled which are being bred.

It wouldn’t be acceptable for two humans who cannot even feed themselves to have children and it’s the same in racing. There are too many poor horses.

Most horses who can’t win a race are a result of poor beeeding. If they changed this it would stop the override of too many races imo.

It’s the 21st century and it’s amazing how so many things have changed, but so many things haven’t. Just like schools and prisons with a few exceptions we’re still doing the same things we did 100s of years ago.
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

MOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED] :|
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

mobius wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:41 pm
MOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED] :|
rant corner’s over there.. 👉🏻
mobius
Posts: 203
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 10:15 am

It's not a rant - it's a MOAN. There is a difference. I've bought an electric paint scraper, makes scraping easier, downside it makes using a keyboard/mouse lethal - ten minutes using that thing could cost me more than the house is worth. Oh ye of non-existent sympathy - what's the phone number for the samaritans? :(
Korattt
Posts: 2405
Joined: Mon Dec 21, 2015 6:46 pm

sacratched the 16:10 that many times I’ve now got a rash, SO frustrating, 6 tick green back to scratch several times
FrogThimble
Posts: 124
Joined: Mon Dec 11, 2017 6:26 pm

mobius wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 2:41 pm
MOAN MOAN MOAN...............
Just a random moan, yesterday there were too many races with too little time between them. Today there are too few races with the wrong time between them. Net result I've got too much time to do anything other than make too much coffee and try to think up something else to moan about - still scraping paint and I hate it. Next big thrill is repainting an' I don't like that much either. Thank god for automatic washing machines and rain. It's p*ssing down hre so I won't have to hang up the washing or worry about the gardening.
[MOANING PAUSED] :|

There are/were only 5 races on today suitable for my trading methods so I've been getting stuck into a pile of ironing that needed doing. I've had 4 of my 5 races already so there's nothing else for me now until the Doncaster 5:10pm. Tomorrow will be thin pickings for me too.
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Derek27
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 9:30 am
Most horses who can’t win a race are a result of poor beeeding. If they changed this it would stop the override of too many races imo.
The worst horses will always struggle to win races. If the standard of horses improve, the worst horses would get better but they would still be the worst horses - some horses have to be the worst. So nothing would change!
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Derek27
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mobius wrote:
Sun Jun 17, 2018 3:54 pm
It's not a rant - it's a MOAN. There is a difference. I've bought an electric paint scraper, makes scraping easier, downside it makes using a keyboard/mouse lethal - ten minutes using that thing could cost me more than the house is worth. Oh ye of non-existent sympathy - what's the phone number for the samaritans? :(
Perhaps we should have a moaning room, to compliment the rant corner. :)
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Got a piece of information today guys. Will get it up soon, quite a big price! Will win.
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