Wednesdays Dobbers & Cards can be downloaded from here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/37v9rqn89w3w ... RfUoa?dl=0
Have tightened up the dobbing criteria as your previous post:-
Min 10 Runs
Won at least 1
Dob % >=75%
Pace >=6
you will still need to check BSP to see if it meets your criteria
Dobbing - Today's DOB's
- BetScalper
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm
Nice one. Much appreciated.Eyesnack wrote: ↑Wed Jun 20, 2018 2:32 amWednesdays Dobbers & Cards can be downloaded from here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/37v9rqn89w3w ... RfUoa?dl=0
Have tightened up the dobbing criteria as your previous post:-
Min 10 Runs
Won at least 1
Dob % >=75%
Pace >=6
you will still need to check BSP to see if it meets your criteria
Just thinking out loud but I wonder what these dobs would be like to trade pre-off. Might have a tinker with that while I wait for them to go off. Worst case would be making small losses and then hopefully making it back if they dob in-running. Unless of course they run backwards.
- northbound
- Posts: 737
- Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:22 pm
It’s called mean reversion. A few coin flips went your way, now they all go against you.
I know the feeling, a couple of my non-DOB strategies which looked very promising in the past few weeks, now are not working as well anymore.
Just had a frightening near miss. I selected a horse to DOB in the 5.45 Hamilton (Xpo Universel). I was expecting it to be a big price and my DOB bet of £12 was matched at £50. Just as they were loading the last runner one of the 2nd favourites burst through the stalls but was very quickly caught and withdrawn. not sure what it's price was but last show on betfair was 5.0. As the horses jumped my DOB bet was matched almost immediately which was unusual for a longer distance race (1m 4f) I woudn't normally do a DOB bet over long distances however the selection had certain things going for it and it actually ran well justifying the choice.
Just prior to the race my balance was £157. I looked at my matched bets and noticed my £12 back bet had been rematched at 38.41, I assumed my lay bet would have been reset at 19 but it wasn't, it was still matched at 25.0! Suddenly my balance was £91! it looked as if the £24 lay bet had a liability of £576! far more than what I would have won.
Suddenly the balance readjusted to £166 as the horse had lost but I woud have been in deep **** had it of won.
I've seen this happen before, I assumed betfair don't adjust the lay bet as the in-running market is not privy to the 'rule 4'. However I could have sworn I've seen it where they have adjusted the lay bet.
Just prior to the race my balance was £157. I looked at my matched bets and noticed my £12 back bet had been rematched at 38.41, I assumed my lay bet would have been reset at 19 but it wasn't, it was still matched at 25.0! Suddenly my balance was £91! it looked as if the £24 lay bet had a liability of £576! far more than what I would have won.
Suddenly the balance readjusted to £166 as the horse had lost but I woud have been in deep **** had it of won.
I've seen this happen before, I assumed betfair don't adjust the lay bet as the in-running market is not privy to the 'rule 4'. However I could have sworn I've seen it where they have adjusted the lay bet.
It doesn't matter when a bet was 'placed', it's when it was 'matched' that affects whether the stake is adjusted by the rule 4 or not.
e.g. A lay bet placed before the start and kept, but only matched after the race starts, is the same as just placing it after the race has started - neither bet will be adjusted when the rule 4 is processed. The same rules apply to a back bet.... it's all about when it gets matched in the market.
e.g. A lay bet placed before the start and kept, but only matched after the race starts, is the same as just placing it after the race has started - neither bet will be adjusted when the rule 4 is processed. The same rules apply to a back bet.... it's all about when it gets matched in the market.
Thanks Dallas. Maybe a good practice would be to quickly cancel any unmatched offset lay bets if there's time once you become aware that a hefty rule 4 may be applied. Then to resubmit them manually if there's time. Also I think I've mentioned this before elsewhere but Betfair's 'rule 4' is a little harsher than conventional bookies as they base their deduction on the whole return including your stake!
Following on from the point Dallas made I just remembered something else interesting from today's incident. When I logged in to see the race in addition to the DOB placed by the software I also placed a £2 win bet on Xpo Universal and then placed a lay bet to go in running as a keep bet £30 @ 1.33 in case the horse ran really well and either won or nearly won. When I checked my matched bets as I stated earlier, my offset bet was unaffected by the rule 4, however my lay bet placed manually before the off as a keep bet had been reset as £30 @ 1.02?
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- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm
When Betfair apply the reduction factor it applies to the pre off bets, because your £30 was still up and placed pre off the RF would be applied to it. If that bet had been matched in running no RF would have been applied to it, it was only shown as the bet was still on the exchange and unmatched.
If they'd removed the runner before the off and after your bets placed then the RF would apply to them before the race went in running
If they'd removed the runner before the off and after your bets placed then the RF would apply to them before the race went in running
Thursdays Cards & Dobbers can be downloaded from here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/8gudhaxurxd6 ... 4FqOa?dl=0
Saturdays Racecards & Dobbers available here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/2ui3m8brbwqg ... HQ6Ca?dl=0
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Many thanks for these, much appreciated.Eyesnack wrote: ↑Sat Jun 23, 2018 1:01 pmSaturdays Racecards & Dobbers available here https://www.dropbox.com/sh/2ui3m8brbwqg ... HQ6Ca?dl=0