Spotting spoof money

The sport of kings.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm
I think it's been interesting :D

But it's unfair!! How can I fight the data corner solo when I'm up against yourself & JG???

I need some backup from the proper quants Peter, Dallas, PeteLe, SB, Linus etc :)
I look forward to that.
Now I like quant, and I like pragmatism.....but which ones best?....fight !!!!

Truth is Simon they're bedfellows, queue more Morcombe & Wise imagary :)
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JollyGreen
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:46 pm
I think it's been interesting :D

But it's unfair!! How can I fight the data corner solo when I'm up against yourself & JG???

I need some backup from the proper quants Peter, Dallas, PeteLe, SB, Linus etc :)
PeterLe is another good friend, great guy! I met him when his ideas were in their infancy. He contacted me and asked if I would show him manual trading and help him understand the markets more. He hated manual trading but kudos to him he made the automation pay. Hand on heart, he never showed me what he did and I never asked. He offered to run it for me in privacy but I was happy with what I was doing. He is one of the few people I know who have made automation pay. I am not saying there aren't plenty more, just that I don't know them!
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ShaunWhite
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Can I throw traders' money into the spoof money issue? Those times when everyone's sat with a couple of specultive orders, waiting for a bounce at evens or whereever, sat at what's expected to be support or resistance.....and if it starts getting taken too quickly or something changes....it gets pulled...and bang? Is that a thing? I think I see it and it's a lot more common than straightforward spoofing.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:17 pm
Those times when everyone's sat with a couple of specultive orders, waiting for a bounce at evens or whereever, sat at what's expected to be support or resistance.....and if it starts getting taken too quickly or something changes....it gets pulled...and bang? Is that a thing?
Couldn't this all just be put under the umbrella of "order flow"?

If price is coming down to 2.0, does it matter if the money is pulled or matched? It would mean the same.

My query is in this day & age, is order flow enough - personally I don't think so - however, is certainly a vital component for execution.

Right time to get your dictionaries out lads :D Cue Mr. Stats: depending on how the other runners have reacted to the steam on the fav (& where the fav has come from i.e. mmwap) - does this influence the chance of the fav's price hitting 1.91.

Those are the question I try & answer using data, albeit perhaps not the optimal way to utilise such info.
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:34 pm
If price is coming down to 2.0, does it matter if the money is pulled or matched? It would mean the same.
No.

My head's in footy mode now but my take is ..

If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is sat at 2.0; if they blink and the 5 grand has gone you know where the price is going....1.something.

but,
If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is at at 2.0, and it stays there, they'll all get matched and you'd need another queue of punters to turn up to push it lower.

Ordinary people move the market and their pockets are only so deep, the queue is only so long.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:17 pm
waiting for a bounce at evens or whereever, sat at what's expected to be support or resistance
So I've literally just knocked this up. I took a chunk of data, & had a look at trading a touch of 2.0 (target 1.91, no stoploss).

y-axis: net ticks won/lost
x-axis: fav's initial price

Almost edge material this

It suggests a runner breaking 2.0 coming from above 2.20 is a shite trade.

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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:55 pm
If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is at at 2.0, and it stays there, they'll all get matched and you'd need another queue of punters to turn up to push it lower.
But that's the definition of genuine money (i.e. £5k crossing the spread)
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ShaunWhite
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ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:20 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:55 pm
If there's a queue of punters with a total of 5 grand and 5 grand is at at 2.0, and it stays there, they'll all get matched and you'd need another queue of punters to turn up to push it lower.
But that's the definition of genuine money (i.e. £5k crossing the spread)
Yes but we don't know how long the queue is. We only know what might happen when money is pulled. Maybe nothing if they queue was short. Or maybe it would have happened anyway because the queue is round the block.

Supply and demand?
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ShaunWhite
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We could debate all week, but we're speculating and probably boring people 😊 Others know the answers.
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ruthlessimon
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:55 pm
My head's in footy mode now but my take is ..
There's a game?

Yeahh timeout time ;)

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spreadbetting
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:31 pm
We could debate all week, but we're speculating and probably boring people 😊 Others know the answers.
I only hope you're both coining it in from all the stats you compile as half the time I can't understand half the graphs or words you're both saying and I doubt I'm the only one :)
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ShaunWhite
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:) It's a case of all the gear and no idea sb.
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RoystonVasey
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Terrific thread guys, some really interesting points made JG and I could read shaunwhite’s comments all day.
I often think the orders getting pulled when the price moves too fast are bot related, they all disappear at the exact same time when I’ve watched back in slo mo.
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