Bookies odds and support / resistance
I’m trying to understand the way that bookies odds can act as support / resistance. Before starting to learn about trading I never had any interest in racing so am not even sure which fractions bookies use. I found this list in another topic, but have also seen a list elsewhere that contained far fewer fractions. Are there some odds which bookies tend to skip over as a price moves or are all the ones in this list equally likely to act as support / resistance points?
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what if the support/resistance is not at those decimal odds that correspond to fractional odds?
cant see any point in memorising a list of numbers that will only be of little benefit (if any) "before learning to trade".
you will be better off keeping your mind clutter free of all such lists while you learn to control your emotions.
cant see any point in memorising a list of numbers that will only be of little benefit (if any) "before learning to trade".
you will be better off keeping your mind clutter free of all such lists while you learn to control your emotions.
- ruthlessimon
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It's difficult, because let's say the low is consistently 2.46, is that a hold of 6/4?
..Or is it a hold of 2.46
..Or is it a hold of 2.46
- ShaunWhite
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That was just my full list Johnedale. The ones I take notice of are much more like Dallas' list, maybe even a shorter list actually.
They're definately significant but it's not set in stone, market noise will tend to blur the boundaries a bit. It's good that you're thinking about how the real betting world works away from the ladders and numbers.
- ShaunWhite
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If in doubt, then start with the round or 'nice' easy to remember numbers. x.0, x.5, x.25 etc, 2.0 is a world of it's own and well worth watching.
Understanding how punters think is key to trading imo. So is your average guy in street going to want to back something down to 2.5 or to 2.412754 ? And if they're old school or not especially bright, (ie most punters), then they'll be thinking in terms of what they're used to & can work out easily, 6/4, 7/4, 4/5 etc.
If you watch racing on the telly you'll soon see what increments the bookies usually use.
As I said it's not set in stone, but without some milestones that ladder is just a smudge of meaningless decimal numbers.
Understanding how punters think is key to trading imo. So is your average guy in street going to want to back something down to 2.5 or to 2.412754 ? And if they're old school or not especially bright, (ie most punters), then they'll be thinking in terms of what they're used to & can work out easily, 6/4, 7/4, 4/5 etc.
If you watch racing on the telly you'll soon see what increments the bookies usually use.
As I said it's not set in stone, but without some milestones that ladder is just a smudge of meaningless decimal numbers.
- ShaunWhite
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It's just a guide.
btw the overround, it's spread over all the selections, so a 140% on a 10 horses is about on 4% each. Noise in the market is more than that usually.
I know lots of ex-bookies will pop up to explain that it's different for favs and a book is never perfectly balanced, but as a rough rule of thumb it's not far off.
It's why backing individual horses on the exchange at 100%, doesn't give you a 40% better return than the bookies, if only, but dutching all runners does.
The fewer the number of runners the more the overround affects each one.
...well that's how I understand it anyway.
btw the overround, it's spread over all the selections, so a 140% on a 10 horses is about on 4% each. Noise in the market is more than that usually.
I know lots of ex-bookies will pop up to explain that it's different for favs and a book is never perfectly balanced, but as a rough rule of thumb it's not far off.
It's why backing individual horses on the exchange at 100%, doesn't give you a 40% better return than the bookies, if only, but dutching all runners does.
The fewer the number of runners the more the overround affects each one.
...well that's how I understand it anyway.
In markets with higher liquidity and widely available TV coverage would you expect there to be a higher ratio of regular punters to traders, and therefore bookies odds would play a greater role? Are there other factors you could use to estimate this, for instance if the price had lingered around the next fractional odds up the list on its way down to 2.46? As others have said, I know nothing is set in stone and you would need other indicators as well.ruthlessimon wrote: ↑Sat Jul 28, 2018 2:18 pmIt's difficult, because let's say the low is consistently 2.46, is that a hold of 6/4?
..Or is it a hold of 2.46
- ruthlessimon
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Devil's advocate incoming
That's the irony I've always thought when it comes to S&R levels - a proper S/R level will hardly do any volume
Wouldn't that make it "current fair value"; not "support/resistance"?ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Sat Jul 28, 2018 3:05 pmUnderstanding how punters think is key to trading imo. So is your average guy in street going to want to back something down to 2.5 or to 2.412754 ? And if they're old school or not especially bright, (ie most punters), then they'll be thinking in terms of what they're used to & can work out easily, 6/4, 7/4, 4/5 etc.
That's the irony I've always thought when it comes to S&R levels - a proper S/R level will hardly do any volume