A question for newbies & beginners

The sport of kings.
Jukebox
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Ironically the odds of a commentator making a mistake in the heat of the action should be considerably lower than 1000 - but it doesn't stop gamblers acting on their information and offering 1000.
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Dublin_Flyer
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Jukebox wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 8:22 pm
Ironically the odds of a commentator making a mistake in the heat of the action should be considerably lower than 1000 - but it doesn't stop gamblers acting on their information and offering 1000.
Dessie Scahill was notorious for doing this on the Irish racing. In his defence there was often 5 or more horses in the JP McManus colours. He commentated on the Irish National this year, 11/30 in Gigginstown colours, what could possibly go wrong?? Nothing, he called a tight finish in bad weather right!
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Allan R
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Thanks for all your replies..
to just check i understand...."IF" u looked at a horses form, and decided it was a loser, so to speak...and u checked with a bookie it was 100/1 to back but when u checked on betfair the odds were 1000/1 to back (the next price was 100/1) but no lay price had arrived in the market at that point...u would back this horse to lay it when the lay price arrived?

am i thinking correctly here, or is it past my bedtime :lol:
thx again
Jukebox
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I'm not sure a bookie would necessarily offer as high as 100/1 even if they knew it had only three legs and a hangover.
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Allan R
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Jukebox wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:50 pm
I'm not sure a bookie would necessarily offer as high as 100/1 even if they knew it had only three legs and a hangover.
:lol: :lol: :lol:
Jukebox
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If a runner is already available to back at 1000 then there can be no lay price on offer unless or until all the money has been taken by backers or withdrawn by the layers because its not possible for a backer to ask for more than 1000.
As to hoping that a runner available on BF at 1000 would shorten just because a bookie is offering 100/1 is unlikely as bookies tend to have limits - setting prices for the main runners and a price for any one of the rest and all well withing their comfort zone for balancing the book. You'd be lucky to get 100/1 from a bookie even on a 5000/1 chance. (if you've listened to racing prices you'll have heard the latest price rundown finish with 33/1 bar or something along those lines)
Only on the exchange can the market be so precise that it determines that one runner can be at 600 while another at 700 and two others at 1000

IF you were to back a 1000 horse you would have to have a good reason to believe its odds would shorten other than the bookies price.
Jukebox
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I do remember seeing a race where a pace horse was entered (I think it set the pace for Frankl) it was well known that it was the pace horse in that particular race (and by well known I mean the tv pre race interviews, radio commentators and newspapers all mentioned it - it wasn't just some industry secret)and it was priced at 1000 in the exchange and did its job of leading the way for its super stablemate early in the running - and on the exchange IP backers blindly backed the leading horse in - seemingly unaware of its role which was to use up all its own gas setting the pace.
Last edited by Jukebox on Sun Jul 29, 2018 10:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Allan R
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Jukebox wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 12:14 am
If a runner is already available to back at 1000 then there can be no lay price on offer unless or until all the money has been taken by backers or withdrawn by the layers because its not possible for a backer to ask for more than 1000.
As to hoping that a runner available on BF at 1000 would shorten just because a bookie is offering 100/1 is unlikely as bookies tend to have limits - setting prices for the main runners and a price for any one of the rest and all well withing their comfort zone for balancing the book. You'd be lucky to get 100/1 from a bookie even on a 5000/1 chance. (if you've listened to racing prices you'll have heard the latest price rundown finish with 33/1 bar or something along those lines)
Only on the exchange can the market be so precise that it determines that one runner can be at 600 while another at 700 and two others at 1000

IF you were to back a 1000 horse you would have to have a good reason to believe its odds would shorten other than the bookies price.
Thanks for your replies..My reason for thinking the odds will shorten are because its a maiden and not really a stand out horse in my amateur opinion :?: :D ..( And maybe u could tell me, in your opinion if i am looking at this as a gambler or a trader)..
so im thinking if they are all about average, how can the odds not shorten.
if u have a second, it may be clearer if u popped over to betfair and had a quick look..horse is called maximum vision, 2.50 at wolverhampton today.
Either way, thanks again.
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Derek27
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Location: UK

Allan R wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:25 pm
Thanks for all your replies..
to just check i understand...."IF" u looked at a horses form, and decided it was a loser, so to speak...and u checked with a bookie it was 100/1 to back but when u checked on betfair the odds were 1000/1 to back (the next price was 100/1) but no lay price had arrived in the market at that point...u would back this horse to lay it when the lay price arrived?

am i thinking correctly here, or is it past my bedtime :lol:
thx again
Back to lays at 1000 generally are not a good idea because if the price doesn't move you may not be able to close trade at all.
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Allan R
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Derek27 wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 1:31 am
Allan R wrote:
Sat Jul 28, 2018 11:25 pm
Thanks for all your replies..
to just check i understand...."IF" u looked at a horses form, and decided it was a loser, so to speak...and u checked with a bookie it was 100/1 to back but when u checked on betfair the odds were 1000/1 to back (the next price was 100/1) but no lay price had arrived in the market at that point...u would back this horse to lay it when the lay price arrived?

am i thinking correctly here, or is it past my bedtime :lol:
thx again
Back to lays at 1000 generally are not a good idea because if the price doesn't move you may not be able to close trade at all.
thx for your reply
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ShaunWhite
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Not that I had even a penny on it, but that 1000 shot ran exactly like it did last time, a 5000/1 shot.

I've run out of hot hide glue in the shed, it looks like the shops will be restocked soon. Either that or steaks rather than stakes races.
spreadbetting
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Hot hide glue, what are you fixing , your penny farthing or something?
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ShaunWhite
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spreadbetting wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:58 pm
Hot hide glue, what are you fixing , your penny farthing or something?
:lol: No, I just love making anything from software to sawdust, so I've done a bit of hobby marquery & furniture making in my time. Heat/cold will unset & reset it even after 100s of years to make repairs, nothing better. Smells as terrible as you'd expect.

Off topic or a new horse upcycling thread? :)
Last edited by ShaunWhite on Mon Jul 30, 2018 1:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Allan R
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Sun Jul 29, 2018 3:02 pm
Not that I had even a penny on it, but that 1000 shot ran exactly like it did last time, a 5000/1 shot.

I've run out of hot hide glue in the shed, it looks like the shops will be restocked soon. Either that or steaks rather than stakes races.
:lol:
Jukebox
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Hot hide glue is still very much used in the musical instrument making world
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