Newbie, am i on the right path with my thinking

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:29 pm
4k woohoo. i can do that in a week
I'm jelous of no one.

You earn so much that instead of chilling and enjoying your life your acting tough on forums. Hahahahaha.

Everyone's brave online aren't they?
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

MemphisFlash wrote:
Thu Sep 13, 2018 4:17 pm
2 years and you don't know the difference between trading and gambling. just give up before you lose more money!!!
Helpful and encouraging as always. ;)
davidjren
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue Sep 11, 2018 7:27 am

northbound wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 12:13 pm
My view is that football markets are efficient for the most part, so you're unlikely to find an edge betting that way.

https://betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 69#p166269
thanks for links. That's what i found
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

Glad I am nt a newbie on here its full of bullies and arrogant people who cliam to be raking in thousands a week ..I suggest they get off to the bahamas and leave newbies alone ..
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Kolop
Posts: 14
Joined: Fri Jan 03, 2014 5:02 pm

That's the problem I'm afraid. Many of these forums have mug punters purporting to be experts, majority of them live in dingy flats , and have six quid to their name :)
Wouldn't it be great, just for 24 hours to see their profit and loss. That would be fun..... :) :) :)
K
swanst1991
Posts: 17
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:53 am

threedogs wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:01 am
Glad I am nt a newbie on here its full of bullies and arrogant people who claim to be raking in thousands a week ..I suggest they get off to the Bahamas and leave newbies alone ..
Yep, after digging through 95% of this forum I've noticed a trend in egos.
I don't want to take anything away from the people who have made great threads and provided great answers but unfortunately, there seem to be some people who make so much that their only kick is to act super cool on threads titled Newbie.
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:11 pm
threedogs wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:01 am
Glad I am nt a newbie on here its full of bullies and arrogant people who claim to be raking in thousands a week ..I suggest they get off to the Bahamas and leave newbies alone ..
Yep, after digging through 95% of this forum I've noticed a trend in egos.
I don't want to take anything away from the people who have made great threads and provided great answers but unfortunately, there seem to be some people who make so much that their only kick is to act super cool on threads titled Newbie.
We've all been newbies once! I made some shocking errors in my early days, and it's only due to my stubborness as an individual that I managed to stay with it. My advice is simple - you will make mistakes, but don't be put off by them, just analyse what you did wrong and make sure you don't replicate that next time. I used to make notes, lots of them - they helped hugely. This trading lark is difficult to succeed in, but it's especially difficult if you're constantly looking to be lead to pots of gold. To be successful, you need a certain amount of individual ideas, otherwise you'll never have an edge
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

threedogs wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:01 am
Glad I am nt a newbie on here its full of bullies and arrogant people who cliam to be raking in thousands a week ..I suggest they get off to the bahamas and leave newbies alone ..
"full"?

There's one or two who occasionally express things in less than diplomatic ways but the advice is often still valid. The vast majority are actually very patient and generous with their help. Like every other form of social media, just ignore the posts you don't like. Bottom line threedogs is that this isn't mumsnet, it's work, and like all work, not everyone in the office will be to your liking.

Perhaps you'll think this is arrogant too but I'm just trying to say that if you can turn the other cheek, then you won't find a better source of trading knowledge anywhere on the entire internet than this forum. I used to be sensitive about replies but the more I shook that off the more I learned.

It's also not entirely surprising that the trading scene has a few arrogant players. Spend time in any city dealing room and you'll have spent time with some of the biggest ****s on the planet. Sports trading is a kindergarten compared to that.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

At the end of the day no one's giving away free lunches or has time to walk you to school, you'll just have to grow a thicker skin and start reading between the lines if you want to learn anything worthwhile. Most of the people giving away advice freely aren't giving away anything worthwhile anyway and are probably just as clueless as the newbies themselves :)
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

Why not have a look at whether, immediately after a goal, we get the following pattern.

Image

I haven't got a clue how I'd exploit this (never looked in depth at a footy market), but I swear I've seen this pattern a lot - the market will undervalue a team who just conceded - for a very short time.

Here's the pattern in a game going on atm:

Image
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

spreadbetting wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 3:22 pm
At the end of the day no one's giving away free lunches or has time to walk you to school.

Most of the people giving away advice freely aren't giving away anything worthwhile anyway and are probably just as clueless as the newbies themselves :)
Psst! Simon...I think he's talking about us ;)

But I think sb's message is, be careful who offers you sweets and walks you to school. :?
ruthlessimon wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:24 pm
Why not have a look at whether, immediately after a goal, we get the following pattern.
All news based markets tend to have an overreaction. (Don't ask me to qualify 'tend')

Think dampers and coils on a car and their reaction to the 'news' of a bump. Adjust the rating of either and the ride is affected; one controls the amplitude of the change and the other controls the duration of the oscillations. The same two parameters are exhibited in everything from football to political markets.
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:59 pm
Psst! Simon...I think he's talking about us ;)
For a long time I've thought there's a negative correlation between the quality of the trader, & the amount they post

We're an exception of course :D
threedogs
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon Jan 20, 2014 10:24 am

LeTiss wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:46 pm
swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 2:11 pm
threedogs wrote:
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:01 am
Glad I am nt a newbie on here its full of bullies and arrogant people who claim to be raking in thousands a week ..I suggest they get off to the Bahamas and leave newbies alone ..
Yep, after digging through 95% of this forum I've noticed a trend in egos.
I don't want to take anything away from the people who have made great threads and provided great answers but unfortunately, there seem to be some people who make so much that their only kick is to act super cool on threads titled Newbie.
We've all been newbies once! I made some shocking errors in my early days, and it's only due to my stubborness as an individual that I managed to stay with it. My advice is simple - you will make mistakes, but don't be put off by them, just analyse what you did wrong and make sure you don't replicate that next time. I used to make notes, lots of them - they helped hugely. This trading lark is difficult to succeed in, but it's especially difficult if you're constantly looking to be lead to pots of gold. To be successful, you need a certain amount of individual ideas, otherwise you'll never have an edge
I fully agree and cant understand people who get a kick out of it so I assume they have always been bullies and dont know any betterc ..
max_usted
Posts: 133
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

swanst1991 wrote:
Wed Sep 12, 2018 10:28 am
Hi all,

i have a few strategies but the one showing promise is an over 1.5 IP strategy betting at 30 mins and 50 mins with stop loss at 70 if no goals which i am using automation to complete, i have now calculated my average profit per trade, strike rate etc, across 120 bets so far.

after trading for 2 years i have really been around the houses, won a lot lost a lot more etc and I have now dialed it back and am using small stakes and making sure it is profitable before i scale up.

i am now looking to refine this strategy and my first thought it to remove any leagues that are minus profit i have also looked at prices but there appears to be no correlations between price and the trade winning, is this how anyone would refine their strategy? or does anyone have any advice in refining a strategy?

i'm not expecting anyone to feed me their steps but thought it would be worth asking considering the knowledge this forum has.

Thanks in advance

Conor :D
Obviously you are just putting money in a market where the movement of the odds will be roughly-speaking accurate (in general, averaged over time).

So this is just the same as betting on any outcome at any period of time, in-play.
Therefore you need additional determination of how likely the outcome you are wagering on is in relation to the odds. That would be the usual indicators which show the teams' past behaviour, and their current behaviour.

But basically I think this is the right approach. I think it's good to be very familiar with the odds in the markets you're interested in over certain periods of play, and to understand that these odds are basically a representation of the average match with conventions governing how they move (although skewed depending on the team's playing, etc). Then you can recognise when these odds are very inaccurate (often due to convention), this given the events of the game in question. But I think you need many strategies and time-periods you're familiar with, otherwise you start over-relying (and over-using) the one you feel most familiar/comfortable with.
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bennyboy351
Posts: 332
Joined: Sat Jun 07, 2014 6:01 pm
Location: West Midlands, England.

It's also not entirely surprising that the trading scene has a few arrogant players. Spend time in any city dealing room and you'll have spent time with some of the biggest ****s on the planet. Sports trading is a kindergarten compared to that.
[/quote]

'****s on the planet'

Wonder if we could get Betfair to set up a market on what the stars stand for? :lol:
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