Trading Horse racing : New Trader trying to Stop Going In-Play

The sport of kings.
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JollyGreen
Posts: 2020
Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:51 pm

No, I am trying to get people to think more about where they are joining the market and what is causing the price to be at a level when there is no market activity to suggest it should be there. If a price is higher than it was, why is it high? If it isn't there for a real reason i.e. an error where it's overshot and its been chased in which case it will not be there for long and it will revert as this is not a real reason for the position, it is an error and a temporary position. If however, there is an issue with the horse or if another horse is being strongly supported then that legitimate reason (plenty more you can list) makes it a safer proposition. A price is not going to stay in no mans land without good reason, so unless money suddenly floods in to keep it there it will move. If it is 7 points above your "vwap" then there has to be a reason for that and something has to change to substantiate that position.

EDIT: SOrry for the typos, I am trying to do multiple things and I am not doing well. There bets at Cheltenham all placed this morning, THREE BLOODY SECONDS!!!

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JollyGreen
Posts: 2020
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Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:31 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 2:40 pm
JollyGreen wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 1:31 pm
When you are joining a market, ask yourself if you are in new territory or if the market has already ventured that way.
JG
Hi, may I ask, are you advocating being mindful of a reversion to vwap? ...unless there's a reason it shouldn't?
If so the edge must be in being astute enough to recognise those reasons in the moment, because the data in itself doesn't reveal anything conclusive for the general case, well not to me anyway. I hope I'm wrong for obvious reasons and if so I'll sharpen my pencil and keep looking.
Another reply on this subject. You are correct in that there is a fair bit of intuitive behaviour but you need to be aware of why a move is happening. As I said, experience plays a part and I cannot give that to new or novice traders. A lot lose money because their entry point is wrong for most of their activity. They see a move and jump on it without asking why it moved. If they waited and checked why it moved they may prevent themselves from creating an instant loss and then chasing their tails. They may actually spot the true reason (or the wrong reason) and then take advantage of it. They may catch the ongoing drift/steam based on a proper move or they may catch a reversion due to a false move.

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:48 pm

Thanks. I think we agree, context is king. As you say too many people forget the numbers are a window on the world and not just a video game that exists in its own bubble. Every move needs to be accompanied by 'why?'.

I'd taken a hiatus from the forum, but some people are worth quizzing when they show up;)

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JollyGreen
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Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 10:06 am

Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:58 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:48 pm
Thanks. I think we agree, context is king. As you say too many people forget the numbers are a window on the world and not just a video game that exists in its own bubble. Every move needs to be accompanied by 'why?'.

I'd taken a hiatus from the forum, but some people are worth quizzing when they show up;)
We do agree and as you say, context is king!

In these markets there is no free money so if a move occurs and someone made an error it will be swallowed up very quickly. If you are basing your opening order on said error then you will get swallowed up too. Even if you just suspect there is an error and wait momentarily while you decide, you will save yourself money and gain some valuable experience.

iambic_pentameter
Posts: 359
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:12 pm

Great to see you back posting, JG.

Hope you are well and enjoying Cheltenham.

Iambic.

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JollyGreen
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Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:26 pm

iambic_pentameter wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:12 pm
Great to see you back posting, JG.

Hope you are well and enjoying Cheltenham.

Iambic.
I had bets on the first three races at Cheltenham and they all came second!! Wicklow Brave was caught in the shadow of the post at 33/1 (28/1 SP) :?

I didn't bet in the Champion Chase or the Cross Country but I had Cocoa Beach in the Fred Winter and there are no prizes for guessing where that finished :roll:

iambic_pentameter
Posts: 359
Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:53 pm

JollyGreen wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:26 pm
iambic_pentameter wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 5:12 pm
Great to see you back posting, JG.

Hope you are well and enjoying Cheltenham.

Iambic.
I had bets on the first three races at Cheltenham and they all came second!! Wicklow Brave was caught in the shadow of the post at 33/1 (28/1 SP) :?

I didn't bet in the Champion Chase or the Cross Country but I had Cocoa Beach in the Fred Winter and there are no prizes for guessing where that finished :roll:
A friend of mine was on Wickow Brave as well so I can understand how you feel there!

luckytrader
Posts: 10
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:07 pm

Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:54 pm

stockdale51 wrote:
Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:14 am
hi i got shot down in flames by some poster that said i can not possibly make 10.00 per trade with stakes of 10.00 pound . but i agree with you i have started useing a bank of 150,00 and i have doubled it within a week. so 100 % profit on my out lay is pretty good imo . but your right even if your liability is your whole bank 30 seconds before the off you still get out . i have set myself between 5.00 and 10.00 loss then i get out regardless of my gut feeling that when race starts inplay it will hit my close trade if its just a few ticks. and am back in green . you learn by your mistakes but it is possible to make 10.00 per race with 10.00 stakes but is there any rule to say thats bad trading useing your whole bank ?
hi
I have been trading for just over a year now and have to confess I have tried the in play after a trade has gone wrong in the early days several times and i think i got away with it maybe twice out of 6 or 7 times the last one cost me over half the bank.

I now can make around 15 pounds per day from a 300.00 bank so not planning retiring just yet. I would say lower your stakes setup a simple excel sheet so you can see your strike rate and average win and loss. If your average win is for example £4.00 then obviously if you are letting your losses go to £20.00 plus that's a lot of trading to get back on an even keel not to mention the anxiety. Cut it out at least £8.00 except the small loss and move on in trading remember you will LOSE some.

I'll bet (No pun intended) if you look at some daily records from an excel sheet as described above you will wonder what the hell was I doing with that kind of money its not till its in black and white in front of you do you realise I'm a trading god or not as good as I thought.

Good Luck

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brimson25
Posts: 387
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:07 pm

ShaunWhite wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 3:48 pm
Thanks. I think we agree, context is king. As you say too many people forget the numbers are a window on the world and not just a video game that exists in its own bubble. Every move needs to be accompanied by 'why?'.

I'd taken a hiatus from the forum, but some people are worth quizzing when they show up;)
I have a new post-it on my desk, saying: "WHY is this happening?"

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