Your perfect market

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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Here's a few simple questions that anyone can try answering if they want to, big traders or small, manual or auto, bettors or gamblers too and so on.

The answer can be as simple or as complex as you like, as vague or as direct as you want them to be, you can either post here or just answer the questions privately to yourself if you want.

1. Do you have a perfect market? (by perfect I mean your favorite type of market, your ideal market circumstances, the near perfect storm of opportunity that you love to trade)

2. What makes your market so perfect? (the question can be as tricky or as simple as you like, if you are able to quantify and explain what makes your market so suitable for your trading approach then you can decide whether it's something you want to share with the forum, partially or fully or not at all)

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market? (for example, if you say you are 90% confident this could imply that your so-called strike rate is usually around 90%)

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market? (on a daily or weekly basis)
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

This has a scent of you pushing people in the direction of a trading plan, be it your intention or not it's a good thread to start, I'm going to enjoy following this one!
rik
Posts: 1583
Joined: Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:16 am
Location: London

not sure there ever is a perfect market but horse racing for me,

as balanced a field as possible with no clear favourite
average amount of runners around 10 being ideal, whereas rather have 15 than 5
higher turnover the better

In running the longer the distance the better, high turnover and balanced not too large field

with the lockdown at the moment id say closest thing to perfect would be the big Saturday Australian races at Randwick, Caulfield, Flemindton, Rosehill that fit the criteria. If I was approaching conservatively would be rare to lose in those.
Archery1969
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Joined: Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:25 am
Location: Newport

rik wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:43 pm

as balanced a field as possible with no clear favourite

+ 1
Diacritical Quark
Posts: 175
Joined: Tue Jan 28, 2020 10:55 pm

Kai wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:38 pm

1. Do you have a perfect market? (by perfect I mean your favorite type of market, your ideal market circumstances, the near perfect storm of opportunity that you love to trade)

2. What makes your market so perfect? (the question can be as tricky or as simple as you like, if you are able to quantify and explain what makes your market so suitable for your trading approach then you can decide whether it's something you want to share with the forum, partially or fully or not at all)

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market? (for example, if you say you are 90% confident this could imply that your so-called strike rate is usually around 90%)

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market? (on a daily or weekly basis)
1. Horse racing, handicap, 8-12 runners, fave between 3.5-4.5, 5th fave under 12.0, flat or hurdle between 5f-1m if flat, under 2m if hurdle, one of the first 5 ideally in an outside(ish) stall (if on the flat) with a slight draw bias on the track

2. Makes picking a winner a very hard prospect which comes in handy when I have a laying strategy,

3. My system is predominantly automated but if I'm about during a session and I spot one of these I tend to trade it manually, identify my selection and double my stake.

4. Hard to say without looking at my data, on average I'd say every other day, the draw bias part doesn't happen often, for instance according to most stats there is no draw bias at Tampa however having watched hundreds of markets over the last few weeks/months the races under 8f come off a very tight bend with a short home stretch giving what appears to me a very slight advantage to those nearest the rail.

** 30 day PnL max £2 stakes and I'd say 90% fully automated;

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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

1&2) My perfect market is where you can lay a horse at 4.1, back it a split-second later at 4.3 and repeat the process. It's like having an orgasm. ;)

3) 100%, but just like sex, you don't know it was perfect until it's finished.

4) It used to be every Saturday at Randwick or Rosehill but this year they've gone off the boil. Hoping they pick up again in the autumn.
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

1) pre race horse racing, a predominantly two horse race (though not necessarily a two runner race), where as the front of the market looks priced wrong and a flip flop of the favourites is expected.

2) usually plenty of liquidity at the front of market, so getting matched not usually a bother. Like to see a slight move in the direction I’m expecting, though still with plenty of juice left in the prices before they flip flop.

3) never confident. As soon as the trades are in place I start to doubt myself, thinking I have missed something, thinking I’ve got something badly wrong. Any move into the red immediately multiplies those fears. Never confident until I have the green numbers in front of me.

4) rarely. There is nearly always something not quite right, a little bit of doubt, something that is less than ideal. And when everything does line up, I often find that they are never the best trades anyway. The best ones are usually when there is a little bit of doubt, though it still warrants the risk, and ends up paying off.
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wearthefoxhat
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Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Horse Racing - Any race that has an odds on favourite

Football - Any game where the team in the Top 4 is playing at home and is odds on

Greyhounds - Any race where a clear favourite is running from T1 or T6 and has early pace

Specials - Any where the sentiment goes against the norm
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MemphisFlash
Posts: 2126
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

Not a perfect market, but a perfect day 31/31 Boom!!!
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ruthlessimon
Posts: 2094
Joined: Wed Mar 23, 2016 3:54 pm

1. Do you have a perfect market?
Any market that contains a stable generic quantifiable bias

2. What makes your market so perfect?
Emotion & instinct are no longer relevant.

3. How confident are you of getting a positive result on your perfect market?
55% - 60%

4. How often do you get the opportunity to trade your perfect market?
Not enough ;)
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:32 pm
Not a perfect market, but a perfect day 31/31 Boom!!!

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Blimey! Perfect trading MemphisFlash.

Inspiring.
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Kafkaesque
Posts: 886
Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am

1.

A football match where:

- Where both teams have an equal motivation/both teams need a result, ie. there's no chance of the market moving significantly against me, based on market assumption that one of the teams will not show up or they'll rest players.
- Where I have a strong confidence in what the prices should be, and they're off when I enter the market, giving a strong starting position
- Both teams have a starting 11 they'll in all likelyhood go with, but one or two key players are questionable. AND I know from experience how said player's absence is reflected in the prices by the market. AND I know when the market will know about said player's availability (I don't need to be the first to know, but rather to know when someone else is, so that I can react in time, both "defensively" by pulling unmatched in time, and "offensively" by catching the movement in time and/or catching a reverse if the market overreacts).
- The market is stable after the above to be able to maximise with small further investments, and has enough liquidity for final, position, adjustments.
- Probably missing something, that you'll add Kai :)

2.

Feel that's implied in 1.

3.

95%+

4.

Almost never on all the parameters, but close enough on a weekly basis (pre-Covid obviously).
Anbell
Posts: 2004
Joined: Fri Apr 05, 2019 2:31 am

This thread is incredible.

Good work Kai.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

There are meetings, races, race types, distances that can be condensed to a single set of actions....
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Never perfect...but not sure if that`s good or bad yet
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Kai
Posts: 6092
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 12:21 pm

Some very interesting replies, thanks to those that answered the questions so far.
jamesg46 wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:51 pm
This has a scent of you pushing people in the direction of a trading plan, be it your intention or not it's a good thread to start, I'm going to enjoy following this one!
Not really, I had no intention of going anywhere specific with the thread, it's just something to potentially discuss while everyone waits for most of the markets to return, the questions are basically just a template of sorts and the forum itself decides which direction it wants to go, if any, figured it can go anywhere really depending on feedback. I think people on here do have the ability to help, inspire and improve each other, if they chose to do so that is, or under the right circumstances I guess.

But I do see it as an opportunity for everyone to have a little peek at what others are doing and what they're actively looking for, and I had a feeling it may especially be helpful for newbies without an edge since they can use it as an opportunity to both see where others have found theirs and to see just how diverse edges can actually be.
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