Horse Predictor

Discussion regarding the spreadsheet functionality of Bet Angel.
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

If you're really determined to prove that it works just post your P/L for the last month or three?
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

stellabot im not sure how to use this spreadsheet can you not do a video showing how you use this to predict please :)
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Dont Know ELOFAN
Other people know more

pm me on here
elofan0
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 13, 2017 4:44 pm

pmed you stellabot :)
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Hi
For anyone who downloaded my excel sheet, I will show a working example for today
The horse runs later.
Should win
Thought this may be the best way forward for anyone interested.
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Runs in over 2 hours so plenty of time
My bets on
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

How much you had on stellabot?
StellaBot
Posts: 818
Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:52 am

Almost 4 figure sum.
But recouped a bit.
chunky86
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat May 23, 2020 1:33 pm

StellaBot wrote:
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:37 pm
Almost 4 figure sum.
But recouped a bit.
Hi StellaBot
Intriguing thread. Very informative. Trying to DM you. Send us one if you have 5 mins
Cheers mate
chunky86
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat May 23, 2020 1:33 pm

SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:00 am
bobs71 wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:17 am
StellaBot wrote:
Wed Sep 26, 2018 10:12 pm
tell u what
Tell the average to go somewhere
Was ready to swear there
Consider the fastest
StellaBot - trying to decipher your incomprehensible posts is much harder than trying to put a figure on a handicap winner at Chelmsford on a wet and blustery Thursday night - if you had bothered to read my post , i did say "averages don't work" - standards are created by comparing a dataset of past times against expected to actual ability , and the use of statistical techniques involving standard deviation and variable percentiles - It is easier to run faster at 5f than it is to run faster at 16f , so that basic fact of equine bio-mechanics has to be factored in , along with normalisation in relation to the factors that effect times - This process of benchmarking has to be done in the first place to "consider the fastest" otherwise you are working with smoke and mirrors. There is also an ongoing calibration process ,simply because new data is added every single racing day. One aspect that nobody has mentioned is the amount of "false" published or official times that get passed through as if they are accurate - the video analysis (which i know Timeform do as well) is a necessary - to give you an example , have a look at a horse called Promote - who won recently at Newcastle in an "official" time of 71.02 - video analysis shows that was out by ~2.00 full seconds which would equate to around 40 odd lbs at that distance using modern estimates (25lbs per second at 5f) - or that at Chelmsford the timer is calibrated wrongly and "undersells" every time by ~0.20 to 0.50 depending on the distance - these kind of errors are common place in the game and not many people know about them.Promote.PNGPromote 2.PNG
As we know this is the case... what I’d like to know.. how accurate are the finishing distances from the winner.

Have you researched any of this?

If they can get simple race times wrong. How wrong are the actual finishing positions in lengths?

Dm please SHR
Cheers
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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

chunky86 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:58 pm
Dm please SHR
Cheers
Have you seen the date on his last post?
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:02 pm
chunky86 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:58 pm
Dm please SHR
Cheers
Have you seen the date on his last post?
SHR was quality
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Derek27
Posts: 23468
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Naffman wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:02 pm
chunky86 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:58 pm
Dm please SHR
Cheers
Have you seen the date on his last post?
SHR was quality
Especially on a full moon. ;)
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Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

Derek27 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:14 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:02 pm

Have you seen the date on his last post?
SHR was quality
Especially on a full moon. ;)
:lol:
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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 2893
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Naffman wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:03 pm
ShaunWhite wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 3:02 pm
chunky86 wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:58 pm
Dm please SHR
Cheers
Have you seen the date on his last post?
SHR was quality
Still about Naffman... Appreciate the kind words. Very occasionally trade... But business interest takes up all my time and I actually have a bit of a social life now haha.

Do miss the forum, (finally hit the 7 out of 7 last year, 18 months ago..)
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