Sceptical

[Dallas]

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work" - Edison

Always liked that quote - but for some reason always think it was Tesla who said it

[MemphisFlash]

"I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work" - Edison

Always liked that quote - but for some reason always think it was Tesla who said it

you been watching that series on tv about electricity called "shock and Awe"

[rik]

Capture.JPG


see it can be done if you persevere

No Ascot trading? Dogs are better?

[airtomoreira]

I’ll add my own personal contribution to this thread. I’m a small-time player. I’ve dabbled with trading on Betfair several times in the past, invariably lost money each time. My circumstances now (lack of work over the past few months, plus having reached an age where I want to at least “semi” retire) mean that I have time on my hands that I never really had before to take a good look at what I believe is a way of going about things that could yield a modest consistent profit.

I’m playing live, not in Practice Mode (I’ve used BAP in the past, so am familiar with as many of the tools as I need to be able to test out my “system”, if that’s not too grand a word to use), with £5 stakes per race I trade on. Over a two week period I’ve turned £500 into £520. Way way below minimum wage levels, but way way higher than my High Street bank would be paying me. Despite my modest success so far, I’m encouraged to continue, and invest more time in learning, because I’m learning every day – mainly from my errors. I have a growing list of a) pitfalls – situations that I should probably avoid at all costs, or at the very least be wary of, and b) opportunities to be exploited that I believe will prove profitable more often than not.

My failures in the past have been based on the false belief that I need to win every time, whereas I now understand that the only thing that matters is winning more times than I lose (provided that the amounts won or lost are of the same monetary value on either side of the equation). If I lost on a trade, I’d get annoyed / frustrated, and try to chase my loss straight away, which is the worst thing I could have done. Some days over the past two weeks, I’ve ended with a net loss (today being one example), however I know why I lost. Today, I made a basic error, overlooking some information that, had I been aware of, I would never have played that market (or if I did, it would have been a BTL, rather than a LTB!) This is a mistake which I’d like to think I won’t make again.

Above all, what is needed is discipline, which I’ve never had before. The only automation that I’m using at present is a Green Up 10 seconds before the start time, though I can see that I may well introduce more elements of automation as I refine my trading. I agree with a comment made earlier in the thread that many people probably try the exchange but give in too soon because, like 99.9% of newbies, they start off by losing money, whereas, if they persevered, they may be just one step away from finding something that works for them.
Baby steps so far, but the main thing is, I’m positive, not negative. Hope this might help the OP, as it’s written not by a “high roller”, but just an Ordinary Joe trying to make a few bob.

[Anbell]

- No help is given to newcomers on ideas. Its more like a protection racket.
- Any help that is offered is soon dismissed, ridiculed or shouted down.

lol -it was Archery1969 that started and curated that thread

And the reason he was shouted at in that thread was because he posted a winning recipe and people were trying to save that recipe for him

[Derek27]

- No help is given to newcomers on ideas. Its more like a protection racket.
- Any help that is offered is soon dismissed, ridiculed or shouted down.

lol -it was Archery1969 that started and curated that thread

And the reason he was shouted at in that thread was because he posted a winning recipe and people were trying to save that recipe for him

I reckon Archery was pissed when he wrote that.

[wearthefoxhat]

Maybe I should have said, "believe in what direction the price is heading".

There is no Holy Grail...however....

Football - Choose a game that you believe will be a low scoring encounter. Back Under 2.5goals Pre-Off, trade out In-Play.

1. You know the direction the price will go with absolute certainty. What can go wrong?

Well...an early goal, a sending off, betfair freezes, poor choice of game with no liquidity, you spill coffee on laptop (did that recently)....

Now you have to decide, when to enter the market and when to exit the market.

That'll be £2000 squid via paypal...recurring payment - Monthly



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There you go... 1 minutes work (as I write its dropped 4 more ticks)


1 min.jpg


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Rinse/Repeat...

rinserepeat.jpg

[Derek27]

There is no Holy Grail...however....

Football - Choose a game that you believe will be a low scoring encounter. Back Under 2.5goals Pre-Off, trade out In-Play.

1. You know the direction the price will go with absolute certainty. What can go wrong?

Well...an early goal, a sending off, betfair freezes, poor choice of game with no liquidity, you spill coffee on laptop (did that recently)....

Now you have to decide, when to enter the market and when to exit the market.

That'll be £2000 squid via paypal...recurring payment - Monthly



hat.gif

There you go... 1 minutes work (as I write its dropped 4 more ticks)


1 min.jpg


graph.jpg

Rinse/Repeat...


rinserepeat.jpg

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

[wearthefoxhat]

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

Approx £20. (hasn't happened yet)

The real danger would be a quick 2nd goal. If there's only 1 goal in the first half, a profit is still achievable.

The trick is the getting a decent entry price Pre-off, in the first 2 minutes they're just doing their stretches and their shoelaces...

It's noticeable that in the 1st half it's more "pace yourself" then in the 2nd half, "pick up the pace," up to 5 subs, more goals likely.

[jamesg46]

There you go... 1 minutes work (as I write its dropped 4 more ticks)


1 min.jpg


graph.jpg

Rinse/Repeat...


rinserepeat.jpg

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

How often do we see a goal in the opening 5 mins of a game with SP for the unders so low... I was thinking along the same lines as you just a few mins ago. I dont trade footy so i'm not about to pick fault but if 4.2% comes that easy then i'd automate it depending on how often that goal is likely to come.

[wearthefoxhat]

Rinse/Repeat...


rinserepeat.jpg

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

How often do we see a goal in the opening 5 mins of a game with SP for the unders so low... I was thinking along the same lines as you just a few mins ago. I dont trade footy so i'm not about to pick fault but if 4.2% comes that easy then i'd automate it depending on how often that goal is likely to come.

Not sure about the overall stats on that. (5 minutes would be too long to stay in the trade, would scratch if that happened)

I wouldn't do every game though..game coming up looks a good candidate. (egg on face coming up)

earlymins.jpg

[jamesg46]

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

Approx £20. (hasn't happened yet)

The real danger would be a quick 2nd goal. If there's only 1 goal in the first half, a profit is still achievable.

The trick is the getting a decent entry price Pre-off, in the first 2 minutes they're just doing their stretches and their shoelaces...

It's noticeable that in the 1st half it's more "pace yourself" then in the 2nd half, "pick up the pace," up to 5 subs, more goals likely.

Is there a time period building up to a match that is more liquid on average or does money just arrive over longer periods of time? i'd imagine that unlike horse racing where people wait to see the horse, most people would just log on and place their bets whenever they feel like it, meaning the money is more of a trickle rather than a flood.

[jamesg46]

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

How often do we see a goal in the opening 5 mins of a game with SP for the unders so low... I was thinking along the same lines as you just a few mins ago. I dont trade footy so i'm not about to pick fault but if 4.2% comes that easy then i'd automate it depending on how often that goal is likely to come.

Not sure about the overall stats on that. (5 minutes would be too long to stay in the trade, would scratch if that happened)

I wouldn't do every game though..game coming up looks a good candidate. (egg on face coming up)


earlymins.jpg

There is no egg on face moments, some trades lose.

[wearthefoxhat]

How much are you risking to make £4 if a goal goes in?

Approx £20. (hasn't happened yet)

The real danger would be a quick 2nd goal. If there's only 1 goal in the first half, a profit is still achievable.

The trick is the getting a decent entry price Pre-off, in the first 2 minutes they're just doing their stretches and their shoelaces...

It's noticeable that in the 1st half it's more "pace yourself" then in the 2nd half, "pick up the pace," up to 5 subs, more goals likely.

Is there a time period building up to a match that is more liquid on average or does money just arrive over longer periods of time? i'd imagine that unlike horse racing where people wait to see the horse, most people would just log on and place their bets whenever they feel like it, meaning the money is more of a trickle rather than a flood.

It seems a trickle overall, although some better prices were available earlier today.

pre-Bourne.jpg

[Archery1969]

Approx £20. (hasn't happened yet)

The real danger would be a quick 2nd goal. If there's only 1 goal in the first half, a profit is still achievable.

The trick is the getting a decent entry price Pre-off, in the first 2 minutes they're just doing their stretches and their shoelaces...

It's noticeable that in the 1st half it's more "pace yourself" then in the 2nd half, "pick up the pace," up to 5 subs, more goals likely.

Is there a time period building up to a match that is more liquid on average or does money just arrive over longer periods of time? i'd imagine that unlike horse racing where people wait to see the horse, most people would just log on and place their bets whenever they feel like it, meaning the money is more of a trickle rather than a flood.

It seems a trickle overall, although some better prices were available earlier today.


pre-Bourne.jpg

Do the odds move much on overs when the team sheets come out ?