Martingale Revisited

Example spreadsheets and comments on example spreadsheets.
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Dr Ginhog
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:10 am
Location: Ballygarvan,Cork Ireland T12D2VR
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Hi Shaun,
Im not sure how its come to this but I suppose I have Blind spots.
There is one way to settle and end the anger and resentment about my views on "Martingale" I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
If i see the thing working on a yearly back-test why should I not be stubborn about it.
If Peter is not interested which I suspect he might not be then thats the end of it and we all agree to disagree and respect each other.

Grindhog
( I sent STUCKINAGALE on holidays to Brazil :D )
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
Hi Shaun,
Im not sure how its come to this but I suppose I have Blind spots.
There is one way to settle and end the anger and resentment about my views on "Martingale" I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
If i see the thing working on a yearly back-test why should I not be stubborn about it.
If Peter is not interested which I suspect he might not be then thats the end of it and we all agree to disagree and respect each other.

Grindhog
( I sent STUCKINAGALE on holidays to Brazil :D )
:lol: :lol: take two fingers and pinch yourself!
Dr Ginhog
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:10 am
Location: Ballygarvan,Cork Ireland T12D2VR
Contact:

Thanks Jamesg46 That worked! I think!
What was supposed to happen.Anyway? I did not smell any roses?
jamesg46
Posts: 3769
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:05 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
Hi Shaun,
Im not sure how its come to this but I suppose I have Blind spots.
There is one way to settle and end the anger and resentment about my views on "Martingale" I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
If i see the thing working on a yearly back-test why should I not be stubborn about it.
If Peter is not interested which I suspect he might not be then thats the end of it and we all agree to disagree and respect each other.

Grindhog
( I sent STUCKINAGALE on holidays to Brazil :D )
On a side note about "Respect each other" I'm sure we all do respect each other (to a certain extent) we all seem to have very different social views though when it comes to the way we perceive what's wrong or right, you only need to look at the Covid thread to see that.... one thing is a certain though, when experienced people give advice to those that are experimenting with ideas, it's not because they're trying to steal their new & upcoming Martingale Strategy, its because they're genuinely trying to stop people from losing a tonne of money.

Some see it as advice & some see it as a battle to prove themselves. Most of these guys giving you advice on this forum have been through every market battle possible and can show the scars to prove it, Martingale being one of them... if you're not listening then that's your loss, the advice has been given, you choose what to do with it, as for your strategy, nobody really gives a shit,.they just wanted to slap you around the face with it until you realised it doent work.
Dr Ginhog
Posts: 260
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 2010 12:10 am
Location: Ballygarvan,Cork Ireland T12D2VR
Contact:

Very Fairly put and I will take it on board. Enough of Martingale. Im done with discussing it and there was an element of wanting to be proved right which i regret. Its probably best not for me not to be involved in the site anymore except for browsing. I might have to start up my own club of 1. :D
Emmson
Posts: 3363
Joined: Mon Feb 29, 2016 6:47 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 9:33 pm
Its probably best not for me not to be involved in the site anymore except for browsing. I might have to start up my own club of 1. :D
Most of us have had experiences here where it feels like we're drawing fire for no good reason.
Bear's The Name
Posts: 61
Joined: Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:04 am

Reading this Martingale thread brings back memories of an early betting folly, many moons ago.

It was the hot summer of 1989 and myself and a couple of pals were getting into racing. We came up with the foolproof and original plan to double up on the favourites in the betting shop. We had looked at the racing results each day and noticed that there was normally at least one winning favourite at each meeting. We couldn't lose - as long as the favourite wasn't odds on - if it was we would skip that race.

I should point out that we had never heard of the term "Martingale" and thought we had invented this amazing system that no-one had ever thought of before.

Anyway, we set off for the local Ladbrokes on a sunny afternoon, intending to start with a fiver on a six race card, I don't know where it was, all set to make our fortune.

The first couple of races the favourite lost. OK, we thought, we didn't want to win on the first races anyway, third or fourth would be better with larger stakes.

By the time it got to the fourth race, we were getting uneasy and what was worse was that there were joint favourites at 3/1. We picked the one at the top of the price list - it drifted to 7/2 and lost, and you've guessed it, the other one went into 11/4F and won. We had backed the wrong horse.

After the fifth race went down, we were seriously sweating and out of cash. An argument ensued but we felt we had to see it through and all had to go to the cashpoint and get money out to scrape together the £160 we needed. This was a huge amount for three 19-year-olds at the time - I think I was earning about £2.50 an hour or thereabouts. On top of what we'd already lost we were looking at a week's wages each.

The shop staff didn't have any problems accepting our bets and probably had us marked down as mugs - which we were.

I said sweating, it was more like panicking during the race which seemed to be going badly, but somehow the 5/4f got up on the line. After tax we barely scraped a profit, realised we'd had a very lucky escape and vowed never again!

And I never did.

I don't regret that day - it was a valuable lesson learned, and some years later when I heard all about the Martingale I realised many had been down that same road.
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jimibt
Posts: 3641
Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm
Location: Narnia

Bear's The Name wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 9:51 am
Reading this Martingale thread brings back memories of an early betting folly, many moons ago.

It was the hot summer of 1989 ............

I don't regret that day - it was a valuable lesson learned, and some years later when I heard all about the Martingale I realised many had been down that same road.
lovely little real life summary of the emotion and ultimate despair that can ensue in just getting back to evens... (and you were the LUCKY ones)

nice tale!
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
Peter's probably the last person you'd want to send a working martingale system to, he'd milk it to the hilt. Send it to me or simply exploit it at will and gloat from your yacht every so often.

Many of us are winning money from things we're told won't work just get on with it there's little to be gained by proving a point. The market will ultimately tell you if it works.
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

The real irony here is having a "strategy" that's designed for or needs the Martingale to work!
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LeTiss
Posts: 5386
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Anyone interested in Martingale has an aversion to losses

If you have an aversion to losses, you will FAIL at trading
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Derek27
Posts: 23471
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

LeTiss wrote:
Wed Jun 24, 2020 4:04 pm
Anyone interested in Martingale has an aversion to losses

If you have an aversion to losses, you will FAIL at trading
It's not necessarily loss aversion but an inability to find an edge and looking for an easy alternative.

According to psychologists, the reason most people get conned out of their life savings isn't stupidity or gullibility, but greed, which takes over rationality.
Atho55
Posts: 637
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm
Location: Home of Triumph Motorcycles

Make it easier to find...

Martin Gale.jpg
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eightbo
Posts: 2154
Joined: Sun May 17, 2015 8:19 pm
Location: Malta / Australia

Imo for long-term success in betting you need 2 things — you need an edge, and you need to stay in the game (so you can continue producing returns from that edge). Any variant of Martingale does not help you with one of those.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

grindhog wrote:
Tue Jun 23, 2020 8:33 pm
Hi Shaun,
Im not sure how its come to this but I suppose I have Blind spots.
There is one way to settle and end the anger and resentment about my views on "Martingale" I would be prepared to send my sheet to an independent arbitrator "Peter" and let him decide on whether Martingale worked or not. I would have to trust that he not reveal my strategy.
If i see the thing working on a yearly back-test why should I not be stubborn about it.
If Peter is not interested which I suspect he might not be then thats the end of it and we all agree to disagree and respect each other.

Grindhog
( I sent STUCKINAGALE on holidays to Brazil :D )
I've never said a martingale can' never work. I'm just saying that there will come a day when it doesn't. Maybe that's a 500/1 chance but the thing about 500/1 shots is that they can happen the 1000th time or the first time.

And as I said, it's little more than a parlour trick that takes a pretty big bank to earn harldy any money. I don't trade for fun so I prefer to spend my time working on stuff that actually pays the bills.

If people refuse to believe that a martingale doesn't work long term, then maybe they'll accept the arguement that there's much better ways to make a lot lot more, so why waste time looking at a dodo?
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