Bet Angel for newbies / Getting started : Stratagies

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gptuk
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:01 pm

Afternoon All,

Has anyone or the group collectively done a list of race types / distances / market and suitable strats That could work or defiantly dont work around those conditions ?

For example i have never had any success with laying the first to trade @ or lay the field strats at any meeting ever, but it must work somewhere surely ?

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Tuco
Posts: 362
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 1:43 pm

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:15 pm

*Strategies

Personally I don't believe in 'strategies' as every market has it's own dynamics - what might work for one event/race/market may not work in another - a stopped clock shows the correct time twice a day - if there was a simple strategy that always produced a profit, everybody would be doing it! Trading is a zero sum game - for every winner there is a loser.
Last edited by Tuco on Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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ShaunWhite
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Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:24 pm

gptuk wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:01 pm

Has anyone or the group collectively done a list of race types / distances / market and suitable strats That could work or defiantly dont work around those conditions ?
No such thing exists. Even if you said a particular style of trade was effective the actual setup/parameters/execution would make so much difference it wouldn't be meaningful.

wrt openness generally you need to remember that the idea of this is for me to take money from you, and for you to take money from me. We're not trying to take money from a bookie we're trying to take it from each other. With sports markets being pretty small, helping someone to take the money someone has spent months or years working out how to get just isn't going to happen.

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:28 pm

Tuco wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:15 pm
for every winner there is a loser.
For every winner there's about 19 losers according to the generally accepted success rate. Or at least I hope someone making 6 figures plus isn't taking it from one other person :)

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:55 pm

gptuk wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:01 pm
For example i have never had any success with laying the first to trade @ or lay the field strats at any meeting ever, but it must work somewhere surely ?
This has the potential to work anywhere at anytime, but it will depend on your ability to read the race and the speed at which you can act compared to everyone else doing it. Unless you're automating based on sound principals then whether or not a strategy "works" is more to do with your skill in executing it rather than just picking an 8f AW maiden race up north or something.

Perhaps start with a strategy that makes the most of your abilities first, that could be race reading, or gauging what horses punters will fancy or reading the order flow, data analysis or something else. Then work on that one approach for a few months until you get better at it than enough other people for you to find a profit. There's no easy markets because every market is populated by the best in the business so to get anything out of them regularly you need to practice practice practice until you're good enough. Sadly just giving you a pair of football boots isn't going to get you to the World Cup.

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Tuco
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:02 pm

For every winner there's about 19 losers according to the generally accepted success rate. Or at least I hope someone making 6 figures plus isn't taking it from one other person :)
...yes, 1 winner to 19 losers will be about right :)

Atho55
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Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:37 pm

Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:03 pm

Get yourself some BF data then you can look at every combination possible. No guarantee that what`s happened in the past will happen again but it will give you an idea what might work where.

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Tuco
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:27 pm

Sadly just giving you a pair of football boots isn't going to get you to the World Cup.
...at least not to play :lol:

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ShaunWhite
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:30 pm

Atho55 wrote:
Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:03 pm
Get yourself some BF data then you can look at every combination possible. No guarantee that what`s happened in the past will happen again but it will give you an idea what might work where.
Do you do out of sample tests, eg find something in the last 12 months data and then see if it was the same in the previous 12 months?

If you just use all of the data all of the time then you're backfitting and you let personality into the equation which is a cardinal sin. Being a natural follower or a natural contrarian can skew your interpretaion, but by using a rigourous method that can be ruled out of the equation. Data is great if you use it properly but a curse if you use it the wrong way.

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gptuk
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Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:35 pm

where is the BF data located ? ive seen it referenced a few times but never stumbled across it

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