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millsmum
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:53 pm

I have been match betting for some time and I really enjoy betting on the horse racing. I am now gubbed from a quite a few of the bookmakers, so I thought I would give this a go!! how hard can it be??
I have watched loads and loads of video tutorials and been reading. I have downloaded the software and I was so excited to give it a go. I have been playing in practice and things were ok, so I gave myself a balance of £100 and as Goodwood is on this week, I was set to make my first million!!

I am back in practice mode. I have lost about £25 which on the face of things is not too bad. I got caught out. the price ran away with me and I couldn't close it. The thing is I am rubbish at this. I know its a numbers game and I need to keep going.

I look at the market and see that the horse is pushing in or out, I can see that sometimes this has an effect on the other runners. I place orders and wait for them to be filled. I am ok at this bit, but I think I keep pushing as there is no profit in my pot! I am using £1 tick size with offset bet with greening. I am using the ladder on reverse. I find the one tick make market ok but I don't feel I am in control and have enough information, I like the ladder. Am I trying to push too much profit out of tiny clicks?

I think I need a mentor!! I have so many questions. especially when things go not to plan!!
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Derek27
Posts: 23469
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

I shouldn't really advise you to do things I don't do myself, but many people recommend recording your trading screen and reviewing your trading later. With a fresh pair of eyes and without the pressure of trading you'll have time to think about your reasons for opening a trade, observe activity in the market that you may not have done at the time and consider what may have worked better. I know it seems a bit like after-timing but it would give you a chance to see the market from different angles.
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FingersCrossed
Posts: 43
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2017 4:36 pm

I agree with Derek and I use OBS Studio to record - Have fun!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Problem is in the first sentance "I really like betting on the horse racing". You're hard wired to enjoy risk and combine that with matched betting and you just see a situation where you lose as being a bad thing. In trading (like professional gambling) winning or losing on an indivual race or day is irrelevant. A bad win is worse than a good loss.

How hard can it be? Very, not many people crack it in under a year, only 5% ever do, and bearing in mind that a gambling/matched betting background might be a disadvantage rather than an asset you should aim for at least that time frame. I'd have you down as a solid 25/1 shot to be breaking even or better by Xmas, 12s to be in profit 12 months from now if you do structed learning and practice everyday. What price do you put on your chances?

£1 a tick with £100 Bank is way too high. You're risking 1% of your capital on every tick. Losing 1 or 2% total on any given market is probably too big at your stage. And losing £25 you say "on the face of it that's not too" bad but it's actually terrible. 1/4 of your bank gone in a few days. Even if you're good then long losing runs can happen and you wouldn't last a month with money management like that.

Start with £2 stakes and try to make pennies, if you can't make a profit over the month with £2 then you certainly aren't going to make money with £1 a tick. Being a gambler through £2 won't be enough for you and you'll struggle to stick to it. If you're a natural then you'll soon be staking bigger but your initial aim should be to have the disciple to stick to £2 until you can show consistant profits week on week.

The other troubling part is "the price ran away with me and I couldn't close it". You could have closed it. You're blaming the market for a mistake you made. Running away is what markets do and you didn't respond correctly. If you couldn't close it you were obviously still trying to make offers and hoping they'd be filled. Sometimes taking a price is the right choice and your aversion to losing a couple of ticks cost you dearly. If it runs away just get out and consider that as being a trade well made. There's not really any such thing as "can't get out" unless you're staking beyond the size of the market.

Good luck and I hope you have fun. But dial down your expectations.
millsmum
Posts: 19
Joined: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:53 pm

thanks you so much.
when I say I love betting on horse racing. I think I meant that I love horses!! but its because it is done and dusted in a few minutes. I don't have time to hang around waiting to see what happens during a football match and pay attention at the same time!! I am not really into gambling, just manipulating the situation to suit me!!

Also I am trying to make something happen on little amounts of cash, so I am pushing for more to happen. I don't really need to make a million over night (not that I would say no!) I want something to do for fun and if it makes enough money to pay for a holiday or even a pony!! no I would then need to spend time looking after something else.

tomorrow I am going to start a clean sheet. still on practice, but I aim to a green number rather than a big number. If I can do that for another couple of weeks I might return to cash!!

Thanks, I will be back here with loads of questions.
I think with the practice mode, when it goes a bit wrong I try to undo the wrong, and when it gets too deep, I click control and N and off I go!!
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Forget cash amounts and just look at something like your pl divided by how much you've staked during the day. If you can make say 1 or 2% then you're doing well. So maybe 50 x £2 trades in the day and see if you can make £2. Your stakes when trading are much higher than straight betting because you only risk a small percentage of it. So translate that into 50 x £200 trades for £200 profit (a turnover of about 10k on the day) and that's a damn good income.

But remember you're not trying to win £2, it's going to be +20p -15p +25p - 5p - 10p etc though the day. Long term over 1000s of trades all you need is avg win > avg loss.

Basically trading needs to be as dull as hell, no big loses, probably no big wins and no emotion whether you're up or down. Make a tenner lose a fiver and repeat. Then go get your kicks some other way because if trading is exciting you're probably doing it wrong. Not saying making money isn't a buzz but that comes at the end of the month rather than in one race.
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ShaunWhite
Posts: 9731
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Once you know how the software works forget practice mode. Excessive use will get you suspended by Betfair and it's meaningless if there's no consequence to what you're doing. Use min stakes, even if you screw up bad the day shouldn't cost more than a fiver. That's cheap as lessons go.
Vladimir CC
Posts: 88
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 1:13 pm

FingersCrossed wrote:
Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:52 pm
I agree with Derek and I use OBS Studio to record - Have fun!
yep
or shareX, that's the one I use. they're both free and full of different options
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