Football trading : Always most vulnerable after you score?

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brimson25
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:12 am

I have long suspected this is nonsense, but there was (what I believe to be) a rare event last night:

Cardiff - 8th minute goal
Fulham - 9th minute goal

The ultimate double jab for unders traders (under 2.5, FWIW was the tip in the Racing Post) and wasn't massively unreasonable to expect, given that Fulham had an incentive to try to park the bus.

I can't remember the last time I was involved in a game that this happened, but memory is a weird thing. That's why data matters I guess.

So is there any truth in the saying?

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Kafkaesque
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Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:12 am

Don't have the data, if that's what you're asking. But I'd agree with your assumption that it's nonsense. In all likelyhood it's instead as clear an example of confirmation bias, as you'll ever see.

I'd wager good money that the number of goals by a team just after having scored is aligned with the number of goals in the same phase without the goal. If anything, my logic would tell me that the numbers might be slightly the other way around. The team just having conceded will more often than not be okay with letting the match settle in the immidiate aftermath. They need to look to their manager, captain and other leaders on the pitch too see, what now? Does our tactics change? Few teams will just push gungho right after a goal against, unless it's very late in the match and it's clear as day that a response is needed right now.

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Euler
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Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:23 am

It's probably proportional to the scoreline. 1-0 up and you will defend the lead, 2-0 you may fall for a bit of 'we have this game in the bag' at 3-0 you may succumb to showboating. I'm pretty sure I did look at this 20 years ago or something and found little evidence in most matches for being vulnerable.

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wearthefoxhat
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Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 am

brimson25 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:12 am
I have long suspected this is nonsense, but there was (what I believe to be) a rare event last night:

Cardiff - 8th minute goal
Fulham - 9th minute goal

The ultimate double jab for unders traders (under 2.5, FWIW was the tip in the Racing Post) and wasn't massively unreasonable to expect, given that Fulham had an incentive to try to park the bus.

I can't remember the last time I was involved in a game that this happened, but memory is a weird thing. That's why data matters I guess.

So is there any truth in the saying?

I traded the U2.5g on this game and was out by the 3rd minute. (outlined this approach in another thread)

fulvcar.jpg

If I had still been in the trade after the 1st goal, I would have been caught out too by the quick 2nd goal with a loss of 80% of the trade. (If trading out immediately after the 2nd goal)

As you say, the RP had it as a recommendation too, so there would have been more reason to hold on to a trade. I was a bit wary after the BrentfordvSwansea game when the team that was behind in the first leg needed a quick start (1st goal 11 minutes), and with the long throw threat Cardiff had (against Leeds), might provide an early chance. (Also led to their 2nd goal in the 2nd half)

I traded the Brentford game too;

brentvswan.jpg

The quick 2nd goal doesn't seem to happen too often, but is a threat to the Under-Goal backers at all times and stings when it does. Are teams more vulnerable? I've heard that trotted out by the commentators a few times over the years, so there must be some credence to it.

Probably comes down to;

Is/are the team(s) capable of scoring?
What's their motivation to score?
Have either team got history of early goals?
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brimson25
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:13 pm

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 am
brimson25 wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 9:12 am
I have long suspected this is nonsense, but there was (what I believe to be) a rare event last night:

Cardiff - 8th minute goal
Fulham - 9th minute goal

The ultimate double jab for unders traders (under 2.5, FWIW was the tip in the Racing Post) and wasn't massively unreasonable to expect, given that Fulham had an incentive to try to park the bus.

I can't remember the last time I was involved in a game that this happened, but memory is a weird thing. That's why data matters I guess.

So is there any truth in the saying?

I traded the U2.5g on this game and was out by the 3rd minute. (outlined this approach in another thread)


fulvcar.jpg


If I had still been in the trade after the 1st goal, I would have been caught out too by the quick 2nd goal with a loss of 80% of the trade. (If trading out immediately after the 2nd goal)

As you say, the RP had it as a recommendation too, so there would have been more reason to hold on to a trade. I was a bit wary after the BrentfordvSwansea game when the team that was behind in the first leg needed a quick start (1st goal 11 minutes), and with the long throw threat Cardiff had (against Leeds), might provide an early chance. (Also led to their 2nd goal in the 2nd half)

I traded the Brentford game too;


brentvswan.jpg


The quick 2nd goal doesn't seem to happen too often, but is a threat to the Under-Goal backers at all times and stings when it does. Are teams more vulnerable? I've heard that trotted out by the commentators a few times over the years, so there must be some credence to it.

Probably comes down to;

Is/are the team(s) capable of scoring?
What's their motivation to score?
Have either team got history of early goals?

Thanks for sharing.

The motivation is an interesting one.

FWIW, you'd have to imagine Brentford in the EPL next year (I hope they make it, having visited Griffin Park a few times (although of course, they are moving I think).

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brimson25
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:15 pm

Kafkaesque wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:12 am
Don't have the data, if that's what you're asking. But I'd agree with your assumption that it's nonsense. In all likelyhood it's instead as clear an example of confirmation bias, as you'll ever see.

I'd wager good money that the number of goals by a team just after having scored is aligned with the number of goals in the same phase without the goal. If anything, my logic would tell me that the numbers might be slightly the other way around. The team just having conceded will more often than not be okay with letting the match settle in the immidiate aftermath. They need to look to their manager, captain and other leaders on the pitch too see, what now? Does our tactics change? Few teams will just push gungho right after a goal against, unless it's very late in the match and it's clear as day that a response is needed right now.
I think you're right. A team having conceded feel like they might need a moment to gather themselves.

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brimson25
Posts: 492
Joined: Sat Apr 08, 2017 11:42 am

Fri Jul 31, 2020 1:18 pm

Euler wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 10:23 am
It's probably proportional to the scoreline. 1-0 up and you will defend the lead, 2-0 you may fall for a bit of 'we have this game in the bag' at 3-0 you may succumb to showboating. I'm pretty sure I did look at this 20 years ago or something and found little evidence in most matches for being vulnerable.
Interesting. in Rugby League, particularly the NRL, there is HUGE store set by nilling a team (is that a verb?). I guess because it's so rare that a team just fails to score. In football, teams seem less bothered by conceding if it doesn't affect the match result.

I'd personally consider a 6 - 0 to be a bigger trouncing than a 7 - 1

NickH
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:20 am

wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 am

I traded the U2.5g on this game and was out by the 3rd minute. (outlined this approach in another thread)
Fox, could you tell me which topic/post this was? Can’t seem to find it, but sounds like a topic I would be interested in to read through a bit and see the opinions of others!

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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 1523
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:31 am

NickH wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:20 am
wearthefoxhat wrote:
Fri Jul 31, 2020 11:36 am

I traded the U2.5g on this game and was out by the 3rd minute. (outlined this approach in another thread)
Fox, could you tell me which topic/post this was? Can’t seem to find it, but sounds like a topic I would be interested in to read through a bit and see the opinions of others!
It was buried in the Today's Football thread, around July 4th/5th, not in a seperate one, although may do one next season.

In essence; (with some additions)

Check;
1. U2.5g prices, no bigger than 2.20 (any bigger, goals are very likely at anytime)
2. Either team score/concede a goal in first 10 minutes last game. (leave alone)
3. Price movement 15 minutes or so before the off. (sometimes a small drift can occur)

Back U2.5g and place a Lay U2.5g (keep) to aim for a 3%-4% return at the same time. This ensures a fair price in the queue.

Example: (although not an actual trade today)

example.jpg

Alternatively, use the Betfair cash out and set a specific target/profit and allow their software to complete the trade.

Getting a fair entry price is the key, with momentum, as the trade will then be in profit pre-off, and drops sharply in the first 2-3 minutes in-play.

If there is an early goal before the trade is complete, trade out and take the loss. Some prefer to monitor the game for a while and hope the game reaches half-time without a second goal. The trade will either be in profit or a very small loss in you do this. If there is then a 2nd goal.. :?

Your skillset will improve with experience. Certain teams are very defensive, when you get both teams with same mindset, easy money. I had a trade this year, posted the result somewhere, I got stuck in early doors, and traded out over the course of the day as the price continued to drop. Also, watching the game you might decide to let it ride as the game may not produce any shots on target, until there is one, and then trade out.

All this isn't new information, some have been doing this for many years, but it still holds up well.

Remember;

never lose.jpg
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NickH
Posts: 80
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:46 am

Thank very much. Interesting post for me as I have a strategy quite similar and was indeed looking for a nice discussion on this type of trading. Do you automate it? Because what I am struggling with is the fact that some of my criteria (such is in your case regarding the no goals scored in first 10 minutes) are not something you can let the bot check..

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