Trading What I see !?

Learn sports betting strategies and discuss key factors to consider when placing a bet.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Kai wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:56 pm
iambic_pentameter wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:35 pm
goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 01, 2020 7:58 pm
Hcap's, directional bottom/top of range
Scalping at these points in the market is very dangerous.

The markets are more volatile generally these days as well, so you need to pick your scalping battles carefully.

Iambic
+1 Although probably scalping everywhere is dangerous at that phase.

Sorry to hear you're giving up so soon Mr Goat.

Scalping may look simple in videos but it's an advanced skill imho. Because not only do you need to know how to scalp (which everyone more or less knows), but also when and where as well which is far more important, like you've probably experienced firsthand :|
I had a bad day yesterday, was in a bit of a grumpy mood, compounded by a good start!
I should not have been trading in that mood...
So give up was a knee jerk.... I shall continue on my small stakes.
I'm routing around these forums, there's lots of awesome information which helps put into better context all Peter's videos.
Mr Goat
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Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

It's best to start with a base strategy and expand from there once you feel you have mastered things.

So, for example, I'm going to look for a drifting favourite. These are the things that will cause this drift that I am looking for. I expect it to start drifting roughly here and I will get out of my position here.

Then hunt for those opportunities. If you don't see them, then don't trade. Just wait for one to come along.

It's all about putting some structure into your trading.
TraderFred
Posts: 194
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:55 am

Just say what you see.

Once you progress, and get good at it, you then advance to the Ready Money round.
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wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

Euler wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:21 am
It's best to start with a base strategy and expand from there once you feel you have mastered things.

So, for example, I'm going to look for a drifting favourite. These are the things that will cause this drift that I am looking for. I expect it to start drifting roughly here and I will get out of my position here.

Then hunt for those opportunities. If you don't see them, then don't trade. Just wait for one to come along.

It's all about putting some structure into your trading.
That's golden info right there...simple but effective.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:21 am
It's best to start with a base strategy and expand from there once you feel you have mastered things.

So, for example, I'm going to look for a drifting favourite. These are the things that will cause this drift that I am looking for. I expect it to start drifting roughly here and I will get out of my position here.

Then hunt for those opportunities. If you don't see them, then don't trade. Just wait for one to come along.

It's all about putting some structure into your trading.
I'm going to work at this sort of structure, however one thing I struggle with is not understanding what causes a drift...?!
I am going to define a set of rules to myself of what setups might lead to a drift, eg. Fav stuck at top of range, near odds boundary, and 2/3rd favs are trending lower.
Get out if 2/3 rd don't support move.
Something like that maybe..?
Thanks
Euler
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goat68
Posts: 2019
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:53 pm
Location: Hampshire, UK

Euler wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:21 am
It's best to start with a base strategy and expand from there once you feel you have mastered things.

So, for example, I'm going to look for a drifting favourite. These are the things that will cause this drift that I am looking for. I expect it to start drifting roughly here and I will get out of my position here.

Then hunt for those opportunities. If you don't see them, then don't trade. Just wait for one to come along.

It's all about putting some structure into your trading.
Thanks for your suggestions Euler and Kai and James, i've gone back and watched the PW videos some for the 3rd/4th time! and i've got a better idea, and also got a hunch on a possible "edge", probably only the finest edge! hence I need all the discipline and care etc.. I've only been running it 3 days but so far very good, although i've had a lucky start, so far 1 loss and 14 wins.
Cheers!
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ANGELS15
Posts: 844
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

goat68 wrote:
Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:32 pm
Euler wrote:
Sun Aug 02, 2020 8:21 am
It's best to start with a base strategy and expand from there once you feel you have mastered things.

So, for example, I'm going to look for a drifting favourite. These are the things that will cause this drift that I am looking for. I expect it to start drifting roughly here and I will get out of my position here.

Then hunt for those opportunities. If you don't see them, then don't trade. Just wait for one to come along.

It's all about putting some structure into your trading.
Thanks for your suggestions Euler and Kai and James, i've gone back and watched the PW videos some for the 3rd/4th time! and i've got a better idea, and also got a hunch on a possible "edge", probably only the finest edge! hence I need all the discipline and care etc.. I've only been running it 3 days but so far very good, although i've had a lucky start, so far 1 loss and 14 wins.
Cheers!
In addition to the useful pointers already given, some traders have suggested in other posts that it would be a good idea to record your trades and play them back. That way you may start to understand why things went the way they did and what you could have done. I assume you may have to watch these recordings many many times before you spot things. It sounds like you're in the very early stages of your journey to understanding trading. Maybe the recordings will help you gain experience and insight.

Another thing that I believe many aspring traders forget is when they join Bet Angel they tend to be focused on scalping as often videos make it appear easy and obvious.

Sometimes the answers lie closer to home. Do you have good knowlege/skills relating to other areas of sports betting? In my own case I've never really delved much into scalping but I do a lot of 'back to lay' trading on racing and have developed automation along those lines.

If you know how to spot value then you can trade it. If you can it do profitably on a consistent basis then you will be making something on the side while you learn other areas of trading etc.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Today was an interesting day, probably over traded, 22 trades
- 16 wins : Average £6
- 6 losses : Average -£15
Net: +£2.58 !
Had a bad start, also my losses tend to be large when I get it wrong... but win rate is good, still breakeven for the day :-)
NickH
Posts: 174
Joined: Tue May 21, 2019 7:54 am

goat68 wrote:
Sun Aug 09, 2020 7:37 pm
Today was an interesting day, probably over traded, 22 trades
- 16 wins : Average £6
- 6 losses : Average -£15
Net: +£2.58 !
Had a bad start, also my losses tend to be large when I get it wrong... but win rate is good, still breakeven for the day :-)
With the losses being that big compared to your winnings, it might be interesting to take a look at stop loss moments in your strategy. It worked for me to ensure I was not holding a position too long.
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Another one of those good days, 15 wins, 1 loss
However that one loss was a big'n, zoomed off past my manual stop in seconds by a factor of 2! So my target risk:reward is £20:£10, that one loss was -£41 !!
However the 15 wins still left me with a healthy £65 profit, I'm glad I psychologically got over that bad loss.
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Euler
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Sounds like you are turning a corner.
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beermonsterman
Posts: 522
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Location: Birmingham UK

I've worn that T shirt more than once
Goat heading to the bust bank lobby sorry to say
take it easy Goat them numbers spell disaster my friend lower stakes to save the heart ache
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goat68
Posts: 2019
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Location: Hampshire, UK

Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
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ShaunWhite
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:11 pm
Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
If you're seeing some that "suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid" then they should be balanced by those that do the opposite unless you're good at picking just those (which would be a good thing). From your posts you seem a bit fixated on strike rate, counting winners vs losers. That's likely to be making you snatch at small profits to clock up a win, but perhaps your losers are even the right size but your wins are too small? There's a human tendancy to dwell on the loses rather than to analyse the wins and that's fed by this 'eliminate the losers' ethos, when infact maximising the wins is equally important. Rather than strike rate, simply measure avg win & avg loss, it really doesn't matter if your strike rate is 10% or 90% (to a degreee).

And the same with £4.....measure your performace another way, maybe % of avg stake or % of turnover or something, using a cash amount is likely to make you target cash amounts on the ladder. I don't know what you're staking but if you've managed even 4% on the total of all your back stakes it's been a decent days work. Scaling isn't linear but when you start putting a grand through each market that 4% return on stakes would be a very comfortable living.
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Euler
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goat68 wrote:
Sat Aug 15, 2020 8:11 pm
Another rough ride of a day! 9 wins & 5 losses, again those losses wipsaw'd me to larger losses than I should have, net +£4 for the day! seems a lot of work for £4 ! I need to get out of losing trades earlier, but some of my wins are when it goes against me then comes right back, so it's hard to know when to cut it, until it suddenly drops -£20 in the bat of an eyelid!! I guess my entries need to be better, but not sure how!
Lots of heavy backing around today, that was the theme of the day. Well, some of that was triggered by laying on a specific runner, but you have to be looking for something the laying was quite heavy so it was sending lots of prices in. Hope that makes sense?!?
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