US Presidential Election 2020

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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Naffman
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God bless you virtue signalling NFL, that's another boost for Trump's campaign
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Naffman
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Paul definitely isn't biased :lol: :lol:
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Vaz0202
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Some professor was on LBC with Iain Dale and claims Trump will lose in November.

This professor has called every US election since the 80’s.

To paraphrase ’The Thick Of It’, are LBC finding the ‘right’ experts?
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wearthefoxhat
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Vaz0202 wrote:
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:41 am
Some professor was on LBC with Iain Dale and claims Trump will lose in November.

This professor has called every US election since the 80’s.

To paraphrase ’The Thick Of It’, are LBC finding the ‘right’ experts?
That reminds me...

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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Latest episode of The Circus very intresting - https://www.sho.com/the-circus-inside-t ... w-on-earth

Focused on postal ballots and made the point (also made earlier in the thread) about a strong performance by Trump on election night, to possibly be eroded by mail in ballots.

As avid US political students no doubt knnow - each State does it differently with different procedures. Some states like Colorado are a well oiled machine on postal votes, others not so much and some don't allow postal votes.

Also very relevant for trading is the possiblity of legal challenges from either side, a la Florida, if the result is close enough - Trump rhetoric clearly laying the ground work for this.
Trader Pat
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I'm a little surprised that Biden isn't trading a bit lower in the market. A lot of polls have been released in the last couple of weeks showing him with a healthy lead but his price hasn't budged. The polls are expected to narrow down the stretch so should be a good indicator that Trump's price will come in as we get closer to election day.

As for the mail in voting apocalypse it might not be as big a deal as Trump and his supporters want it to be. While Trump is warning that mail in ballots will result in widespread fraud he's also actively encouraging Florida voters to vote by mail in ballot! Why? In 2016 nearly 30% of all votes cast in Florida were by mail and Trump needs to win Florida to have a realistic chance of another 4 years.

I've got my green weighted in favour of Trump with the expectation of his price coming in so I can lay him again come election day. :mrgreen:
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Naffman
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE

Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.

One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%

Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s

Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
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Kafkaesque
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Naffman wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:04 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE

Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.

One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%

Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s

Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
Small sample, but I did live in a West Texas city for a year once upon a time. As republican a city as you'll ever find, and which proudly proclaimes to be a former city of residence for George Bush. Of the 25ish people I'm still in contact with, they to the last man and woman voted Trump in 2016. About 3/4 are not voting this time round. They regret voting Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat, and they tell me that's what they see and hear around them. The remaining 1/4 bar one are on the fence. Trump will likely take Texas again, but it'll be by default over aversion to democrats.
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Naffman
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Thanks Kaf good insight :)

One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
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Kafkaesque
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 am
Thanks Kaf good insight :)

One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
My point, just to clear, wasn't - just - in response to your Texas assertion/assumption. In a narrow perspective, yes I do believe your dismissal of polls just on the basis of it being left media and/or Texas being Texas would be faulty. In broader terms, what I meant to say was, I don't think anyone can call this one. Not the media, not polling companies and certainly not us. There's such a huge swell of people not usually voting that might now, and people who usually vote that might not due to Covid that it's up in the air like never before. You simply cannot tell how many will vote Trump, be it as a supporter or in protest against whatever, just like four years ago. This time around it's also in the mix that it's impossible to know how many would have voted Trump that'll now stay away or even swing to democrats. It shouldn't be underestimated how much some folks will feel them and theirs have been put in, unneccessarily big, perile by Trump's Covid incompetence. Don't forget that the, Texas or elsewhere, gunswinging attitude is in its core a "I have a God-given right to protect me and mine." Trump's loose canon approach might be fun and impressive when it's China, Trade agreements, Mexico/the wall, but when he's putting people's families lives and livelyhood in jeopardy, the fun stops. That's what I - again anecdotally - am hearing is spreading like wildfire among votes, Trump needs.
Trader Pat
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Naffman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 am
Thanks Kaf good insight :)

One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.

As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.

I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
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gazuty
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I wish JibJab would make another election parody ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Q-sRdV7SY
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Naffman
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 am
Thanks Kaf good insight :)

One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.

As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.

I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
If you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.
Trader Pat
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Naffman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:44 am
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 am
Thanks Kaf good insight :)

One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.

As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.

I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
If you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.

Biden probably isn't as sharp as he was 10 years ago but he was never that sharp to begin with! There are plenty of examples of him putting his foot in his mouth when he was VP so saying he's losing the plot now is a bit OTT, and if Biden is losing the plot then Trump has lost the whole graveyard.

Anyway that wasnt the point I was making, I was pointing out that its Trump who'll be to blame if Biden wins the debate not the media, because Trump himself has set the bar so low for Biden's cognitive ability. All Biden has to do is say his ABC's and he'll have proved Trump wrong. But you know yourself that's true which is why you didn't respond to it. Just like you didnt respond to my point about Trump and OANN.
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Naffman
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Trader Pat wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:39 pm
Naffman wrote:
Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:44 am
Trader Pat wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pm


The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.

As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.

I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
If you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.

Biden probably isn't as sharp as he was 10 years ago but he was never that sharp to begin with! There are plenty of examples of him putting his foot in his mouth when he was VP so saying he's losing the plot now is a bit OTT, and if Biden is losing the plot then Trump has lost the whole graveyard.

Anyway that wasnt the point I was making, I was pointing out that its Trump who'll be to blame if Biden wins the debate not the media, because Trump himself has set the bar so low for Biden's cognitive ability. All Biden has to do is say his ABC's and he'll have proved Trump wrong. But you know yourself that's true which is why you didn't respond to it. Just like you didnt respond to my point about Trump and OANN.
We will have a chat after the 1st debate 👍
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