US Presidential Election 2020
- wearthefoxhat
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That reminds me...
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Latest episode of The Circus very intresting - https://www.sho.com/the-circus-inside-t ... w-on-earth
Focused on postal ballots and made the point (also made earlier in the thread) about a strong performance by Trump on election night, to possibly be eroded by mail in ballots.
As avid US political students no doubt knnow - each State does it differently with different procedures. Some states like Colorado are a well oiled machine on postal votes, others not so much and some don't allow postal votes.
Also very relevant for trading is the possiblity of legal challenges from either side, a la Florida, if the result is close enough - Trump rhetoric clearly laying the ground work for this.
Focused on postal ballots and made the point (also made earlier in the thread) about a strong performance by Trump on election night, to possibly be eroded by mail in ballots.
As avid US political students no doubt knnow - each State does it differently with different procedures. Some states like Colorado are a well oiled machine on postal votes, others not so much and some don't allow postal votes.
Also very relevant for trading is the possiblity of legal challenges from either side, a la Florida, if the result is close enough - Trump rhetoric clearly laying the ground work for this.
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I'm a little surprised that Biden isn't trading a bit lower in the market. A lot of polls have been released in the last couple of weeks showing him with a healthy lead but his price hasn't budged. The polls are expected to narrow down the stretch so should be a good indicator that Trump's price will come in as we get closer to election day.
As for the mail in voting apocalypse it might not be as big a deal as Trump and his supporters want it to be. While Trump is warning that mail in ballots will result in widespread fraud he's also actively encouraging Florida voters to vote by mail in ballot! Why? In 2016 nearly 30% of all votes cast in Florida were by mail and Trump needs to win Florida to have a realistic chance of another 4 years.
I've got my green weighted in favour of Trump with the expectation of his price coming in so I can lay him again come election day.
As for the mail in voting apocalypse it might not be as big a deal as Trump and his supporters want it to be. While Trump is warning that mail in ballots will result in widespread fraud he's also actively encouraging Florida voters to vote by mail in ballot! Why? In 2016 nearly 30% of all votes cast in Florida were by mail and Trump needs to win Florida to have a realistic chance of another 4 years.
I've got my green weighted in favour of Trump with the expectation of his price coming in so I can lay him again come election day.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE
Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.
One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%
Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s
Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.
One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%
Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s
Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
- Kafkaesque
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- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
Small sample, but I did live in a West Texas city for a year once upon a time. As republican a city as you'll ever find, and which proudly proclaimes to be a former city of residence for George Bush. Of the 25ish people I'm still in contact with, they to the last man and woman voted Trump in 2016. About 3/4 are not voting this time round. They regret voting Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for a democrat, and they tell me that's what they see and hear around them. The remaining 1/4 bar one are on the fence. Trump will likely take Texas again, but it'll be by default over aversion to democrats.Naffman wrote: ↑Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:04 pmhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3xeb6a1JjE
Really enjoyed this - Andrew Neil + guests covering all bases.
One thing I find amazing is the left think Texas is a toss-up because the polls have Trump just 1 ahead, in 2016 most of the polls were leaning towards Trump in TX so I'm guessing it was about the 1pt lead too, Trump beat Clinton by 9%
Also - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksXir3Z ... dex=7&t=0s
Shows why polls are skewed and how Biden is struggling to get voters to the polls (like Corbyn and Shorten - they are too PC and have no charisma) - is a right leaning channel though before anyone points it out
Thanks Kaf good insight
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
- Kafkaesque
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- Joined: Fri Oct 06, 2017 10:20 am
My point, just to clear, wasn't - just - in response to your Texas assertion/assumption. In a narrow perspective, yes I do believe your dismissal of polls just on the basis of it being left media and/or Texas being Texas would be faulty. In broader terms, what I meant to say was, I don't think anyone can call this one. Not the media, not polling companies and certainly not us. There's such a huge swell of people not usually voting that might now, and people who usually vote that might not due to Covid that it's up in the air like never before. You simply cannot tell how many will vote Trump, be it as a supporter or in protest against whatever, just like four years ago. This time around it's also in the mix that it's impossible to know how many would have voted Trump that'll now stay away or even swing to democrats. It shouldn't be underestimated how much some folks will feel them and theirs have been put in, unneccessarily big, perile by Trump's Covid incompetence. Don't forget that the, Texas or elsewhere, gunswinging attitude is in its core a "I have a God-given right to protect me and mine." Trump's loose canon approach might be fun and impressive when it's China, Trade agreements, Mexico/the wall, but when he's putting people's families lives and livelyhood in jeopardy, the fun stops. That's what I - again anecdotally - am hearing is spreading like wildfire among votes, Trump needs.Naffman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 amThanks Kaf good insight
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
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The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.Naffman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 amThanks Kaf good insight
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.
I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
I wish JibJab would make another election parody ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Q-sRdV7SY
If you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pmThe reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.Naffman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 amThanks Kaf good insight
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.
I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
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Naffman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:44 amIf you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pmThe reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.Naffman wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 6:31 amThanks Kaf good insight
One other thing to mention is the first debate is just over a week away now, as was outlined on the AN podcast the media have already given Biden the win as long as he gets up on stage...his expectations are already so low too but he looks genuinely lost without his pre mediated questions and answers.
As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.
I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
Biden probably isn't as sharp as he was 10 years ago but he was never that sharp to begin with! There are plenty of examples of him putting his foot in his mouth when he was VP so saying he's losing the plot now is a bit OTT, and if Biden is losing the plot then Trump has lost the whole graveyard.
Anyway that wasnt the point I was making, I was pointing out that its Trump who'll be to blame if Biden wins the debate not the media, because Trump himself has set the bar so low for Biden's cognitive ability. All Biden has to do is say his ABC's and he'll have proved Trump wrong. But you know yourself that's true which is why you didn't respond to it. Just like you didnt respond to my point about Trump and OANN.
We will have a chat after the 1st debateTrader Pat wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 1:39 pmNaffman wrote: ↑Sun Sep 20, 2020 7:44 amIf you can't see Biden has lost the plot (which a lot of people on the left agree with) then you're the one who's being subjective.Trader Pat wrote: ↑Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:00 pm
The reason expectations are low for Biden on the debate stage is because Trump and his minions have made them that way! Trump and tv ads on his behalf have been saying for weeks that Biden is mentally diminished and unable to string a sentence together. So all Biden has to do is turn up and not put his foot in his mouth, if Trump had kept his mouth shut then the bar would have been higher for Biden.
As for his premeditated questions and answers have you watched a Trump press conference recently? OANN feed him questions all the time, most of which he's probably written himself.
I have to say Naffman your complete lack of objectivity on this subject really is something to behold!
Biden probably isn't as sharp as he was 10 years ago but he was never that sharp to begin with! There are plenty of examples of him putting his foot in his mouth when he was VP so saying he's losing the plot now is a bit OTT, and if Biden is losing the plot then Trump has lost the whole graveyard.
Anyway that wasnt the point I was making, I was pointing out that its Trump who'll be to blame if Biden wins the debate not the media, because Trump himself has set the bar so low for Biden's cognitive ability. All Biden has to do is say his ABC's and he'll have proved Trump wrong. But you know yourself that's true which is why you didn't respond to it. Just like you didnt respond to my point about Trump and OANN.