Coronavirus - A pale horse,4 men and ....beer

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alexmr2
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We seem to be seeing confirmation of the concepts from Thinking Fast and Slow

As traders you will know humans naturally think with sentiment and emotions yet struggle to think in probabilities i.e. Scotland had ONE Covid death in a week yet half the country is being put in lockdown because someone died and that's very sad, but then if you were to look at the bigger picture of death rate statistics this is just the norm and the knockon effects (and deaths) from the restrictions could very well be worse than the problem they are trying to solve (availability cascade)

Someone on here also posted a nice Alan Watts lecture which also comes to mind that we can't change things and most bad things came from good intentions
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Derek27
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Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day, beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Last edited by Derek27 on Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Archery1969
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 2:17 pm
Naffman wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:48 am
Boris has lost the plot if he goes for a new lockdown
Another lockdown would be better than going back to 1000 deaths a day', beginning to look more likely and might stop people getting complacent. People caught blatantly ignoring it should be retrospectively barred from the furlough scheme.
Fully agree Derek,

Don't know about other places but where I live people are totally ignoring the rules and did through most of the 1st lockdown. Everynight in a nearby park we have upwards of 20 youths drinking, smoking something rather potent and playing loud music well into the night. The Police have been informed (not by me) but so far have done fcuk all.
spreadbetting
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1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.
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Derek27
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spreadbetting wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:34 pm
1,257 hospitals in the UK, Derek, I'm sure they can cope with one death a day. The government have long lost the public's confidence so can't see many adhering to another lockdown. We'll just have to go with their first idea of herd imunity like Sweden for now.
They can cope with the odd death but the person who dies can't. :lol:

I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't. But why take the risk? It's not simply a case of young people catching it and spreading it to elderly friends/relatives. It's a case of young people catching it, spreading it amongst themselves tenfold and increasing the likelihood of it getting back into care homes. I haven't seen my mother since Christmas and when I see her next month (if she remembers me) it will just be 10-20 minutes. It's pretty selfish ignoring social distancing just to enjoy yourself.
jamesg46
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Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate. We've had plenty of time to get any hospitals adequately supplied for this flu season, but then again... we can't even get a test thats accurate so I doubt it.

Oh well, here comes inflation, another round of mass job losses and people not being able afford to eat. Do we lock down for good, or until we have a vaccine? How many industries can survive and is our system of mass produced food going to survive, we were already on the brink of inflation,

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... e-covid-19

I suppose I took voluntary redundancy at the right time because a second lockdown is gonna completely wreck the aviation industry.

Fooked if we do, fooked if we don't. What does it matter to us every day minions though, not like we have a choice.

I'll certainly not live in fear though Derek, I shoved their furlough money right where the sun doesn't shine back in July, I mean i would only have to pay it back in future taxes with a 30% pay reduction to boot and for what? No flipping choice. No thanks.
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Derek27
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jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:10 pm
Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate.
All the more reason to have a lockdown. :D

We're really stuck between a rock and a hard place.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:30 pm
jamesg46 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:10 pm
Another lockdown is surely suicide for Boris to even contemplate.
All the more reason to have a lockdown. :D

We're really stuck between a rock and a hard place.
We certainly are & at this point in time I'd love nothing more than to have one of those log cabins out in the middle of nowhere :lol: 2020 has been ruthless and it doesn't look like 2021 is a year of new prosper.
spreadbetting
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm


I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't. But why take the risk? .....................
We all take risks everyday, their's just have bigger consequences . I was at one of the bigger, and previously busy, London hospitals yesterday, was pretty much empty, the staff almost looked embarrassed at their lack of work.
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superfrank
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The medical establishment has a vested interest in a cautious approach and minimising infections. But they get paid 100% whatever happens while hundreds of thousands of others who rely on a functioning economy face unemployment. Early on it was correct to be cautious, but this thing could be around for years. Time for more personal responsibility and fewer state diktats imho.

Teaching unions didn't want their members to go back to work (the members probably fancied another 6 months off on full pay). It's a good job the public sector isn't responsible for our food supplies - we'd have starved to death.
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alexmr2
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm

I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't.
I watched a video breaking down the statistics and apparently it's just because of more testing and the building up of historical cases that the infection rate looks to be rising. The other main points made were that the Covid death wave was just a normal regression to the mean after a particularly low death rate season in the months coming up to it, compared to every other year it was barely any more deaths in total

I do believe the virus is real but places like pubs were reopened 2 months ago and there has been tens of millions of social interactions between people without masks yet the Covid death rate is down to single/low double figures in a country where 1,500+ people die every day (normal death rate in the UK)
jamesg46
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alexmr2 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:49 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:02 pm

I admit I'm a bit baffled as to why the infection rate has risen over the last few weeks but the death rate hasn't.
I watched a video breaking down the statistics and apparently it's just because of more testing and the building up of historical cases that the infection rate looks to be rising. The other main points made were that the Covid death wave was just a normal regression to the mean after a particularly low death rate season in the months coming up to it, compared to every other year it was barely any more deaths in total

I do believe the virus is real but places like pubs were reopened 2 months ago and there has been tens of millions of social interactions between people without masks yet the Covid death rate is down to single/low double figures in a country where 1,500+ people die every day (normal death rate in the UK)
This one?

https://youtu.be/8UvFhIFzaac
jamesg46
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superfrank wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:20 pm
The medical establishment has a vested interest in a cautious approach and minimising infections. But they get paid 100% whatever happens while hundreds of thousands of others who rely on a functioning economy face unemployment. Early on it was correct to be cautious, but this thing could be around for years. Time for more personal responsibility and fewer state diktats imho.

Teaching unions didn't want their members to go back to work (the members probably fancied another 6 months off on full pay). It's a good job the public sector isn't responsible for our food supplies - we'd have starved to death.
100% agree its time for more personal responsibility, problem is that its been a political weapon now for months and there is no chance of this going away anytime soon.

I have this image in my mind that we have a society that's now brimmed with people that I imagine are like a kid at their first swimming lesson.... imagine if the teacher just kicked the kid into the pool and said something like "get on with it child, you have armbands"

Its a political dream for the opposition and a nightmare for any current administration, they'll either get accused of murder or of destroying the econamy.... goverments now have to gently persuade society back to some sort of normal while being drilled from every angle. Society is literally destroying itself.
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Derek27
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If nine responsible people and one irresponsible person sail across the ocean with a modest food supply, the food larder needs to be under lock and key - you can't leave it to personal responsibility.
jamesg46
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Derek27 wrote:
Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:25 pm
If nine responsible people and one irresponsible person sail across the ocean with a modest food supply, the food larder needs to be under lock and key - you can't leave it to personal responsibility.
Which responsible person do you trust with the key & how do you know that your choice of person isn't secretly irresponsible. We cant lock up society Derek, there are people who do irresponsible things all the time but we don't lock everyone up because of it.
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