Scalping the favorite

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sonaht
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 am

Yes..
this rules sculps nicely but the trick is to find the nicest way of closing the trade in play....
Most of the trades during last week were completed nicely (pre play).
On 3-4 cases the horses drifted significantly PRE play and continued that way also INPLAY...

I think trailing stop or closing the trade if the profit less than -8 should work.
But there are also the sudden spikes on the price on the INPLAY time....

Still trying to find that nice and warm sweet spot..
We'll get there!

ALSO in order to find out what is not working OK on a rule you must be there and spy on it so as to specify the reasons and try to fix it for the next race.
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

Why would you scalp IN-play and not ONLY PRE-play?

P.S: I'm was also trading manually on the second computer so I wasn't able to monitor every race :) I'll be monitoring it in the future if possible...

I guess a stop loss (a couple of ticks distance) would be a great idea - if you'll fix the rule please upload it so we can test it again.

Thanks a lot!
sonaht
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 am

As you can notice it is scalping until 1 min PRE play,
it keeps the unmatched bets so as to close the trade (hopefully) INPLAY.
So it is not scalping INPLAY....

The trick for this upload was to see some team work...
It would be fun to see a shared rule evolve through community work....

;)
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

sonaht wrote:As you can notice it is scalping until 1 min PRE play,
it keeps the unmatched bets so as to close the trade (hopefully) INPLAY.
So it is not scalping INPLAY....
Sorry I wrote it wrong here. I was thinking "Why even keep the unmatched bets IN-play and not just green/red up PRE-play" and not that you are scalping IN-play of course - that would be nuts :D
sonaht wrote: The trick for this upload was to see some team work...
It would be fun to see a shared rule evolve through community work....

;)
Count me in on the teamwork (for horse racing) 8-) I must say I'm a newbie, but I'll do my best to help.

P.S.: And as already said earlier I think the best thing here would be to add a stop loss, but in automation this doesn't work as expected - when you manually place a stop loss (by right clicking) it automatically green/reds up if the stop loss gets triggered, but if you try to do this in automation the stop loss gets triggered, but NO greening/reding up occurs.

I have already spoke to support about this, and here's the explanation :

"With offset betting with greening and stop, the stake is set to green-up evenly if the trade is successful (i.e. it's stake is set based on the price of the offset rather than the stop)..... the unmatched bet can't be left in the market with two different stakes and betfair don't support a one-cancels-other order, so this is the nearest we can get to the ideal solution. If the stake had been set based on the price of the stop loss then it wouldn't properly green-up when the offset is successfully filled.

In the case of the manual stop loss used with the right-mouse click on the ladder, this works based on the current net stake and doesn't have an unmatched bet on offer to the market, so although it has the advantage of redding-up exactly when it is triggered, it requires the manual exit of a successful trade.

An alternative approach is to place all trades without greening so the same stake is used to enter and exit the trade regardless of the price and then green all selections just before the market is expected to turn inplay (perhaps five seconds before the official race start time)."
sonaht
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 am

Today i used
offset bet (1 tick) with greening
and
trailing stop at 18 ticks and place also on 18.

practice mode on all UK and IR races.
only on two of them the price did drift a bit above 18 ticks and so it triggered the trailing stop.
it closed the trade with the correct amount on all over the ladder.

i should have kept the stop at 20 as yesterday....
:(
hard to find this nice sweet spot...

also it would be wise to give some though regarding the requested difference between the 1st and the 2nd runner so as to have a safe choice of auto scalping...
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

sonaht wrote: practice mode on all UK and IR races.
only on two of them the price did drift a bit above 18 ticks and so it triggered the trailing stop.
it closed the trade with the correct amount on all over the ladder.
Because the rule has "Green All Selections" rule in it that worked flawlessly :)
sonaht wrote: also it would be wise to give some though regarding the requested difference between the 1st and the 2nd runner so as to have a safe choice of auto scalping...
Don't know what you mean here exactly - could you please explain a little bit more.

Thanks a lot for sharing all the info!
sonaht
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 am

also it would be wise to give some though regarding the requested difference between the 1st and the 2nd runner so as to have a safe choice of auto scalping...
If the 1st and the 2nd runner have close odds there will be heavy competition in addition to the intention of moving the price around the crossover point.
This has the effect of drifting the price away from our placed bets...trigger the stops and ... red up eventually.

That is why i have placed the condition for the space in between prices of the 2 favourite runners.

Hope this helps.
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

sonaht wrote:If the 1st and the 2nd runner have close odds there will be heavy competition in addition to the intention of moving the price around the crossover point.
This has the effect of drifting the price away from our placed bets...trigger the stops and ... red up eventually.

That is why i have placed the condition for the space in between prices of the 2 favourite runners.

Hope this helps.
Yup, I get it now :ugeek:
Last edited by andrejt on Wed Feb 25, 2015 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
leesnose
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:06 am

I am a bit of a tactical newbie here but I have been toying with a similar but less ambitious strategy.

I tend to lay first directly on the crossover point & make sure I am gone before the real money arrives (I am a very small player).

The bit that might be useful to you is that there was a really good blog entry on here that mentioned how some types of races can be less stable for trading. As a result I avoid national hunt, maidens, novices, beginners etc. That did seem to make a difference to the level of consistency I was looking at & leave the strategy green at the end of every month.
sonaht
Posts: 24
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:37 am

Regarding the stability you are right.
The p.m. races are not stable enough...

And on these races the price tends to move away from our desires.... 8-)
For sure, manual scalping or swing trading is far more efficient to practice even in small bet amounts.

But, on the other side, by applying the rule on all of these markets and while being on PRACTICE mode you have a very nice chance to observe the movement and the momentum of the market.

So from my point of view
- i study the market so as to make better trades
- i keep my minds intelligence on alert while puzzling to make a fun horse automation. Maybe someday this rule will be able to scalp safely by it self (AI style)...
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

leesnose wrote:I am a bit of a tactical newbie here but I have been toying with a similar but less ambitious strategy.

I tend to lay first directly on the crossover point & make sure I am gone before the real money arrives (I am a very small player).

The bit that might be useful to you is that there was a really good blog entry on here that mentioned how some types of races can be less stable for trading. As a result I avoid national hunt, maidens, novices, beginners etc. That did seem to make a difference to the level of consistency I was looking at & leave the strategy green at the end of every month.
Do you have automation set up for this or do you do trade the markets manually?
leesnose
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:06 am

I have been running it with excel but it is about time that I knocked up a BAF file.
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andrejt
Posts: 153
Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2014 2:59 pm
Location: Slovenia

leesnose wrote:I have been running it with excel but it is about time that I knocked up a BAF file.
Any chance for sharing the rule so we can test it? :oops:
leesnose
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2013 10:06 am

My excel template is a bit fiddly but I will upload the baf version when I have finished it. It'd be interesting to get some more eyes on it.
AngusMack78
Posts: 15
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:26 am

Hi,

I had a bash of this rule - version 2 a couple of days ago, and while it greened (or redded in a couple of cases) very well in most races. There where a couple of races where it didn't green out. Presumably because none of the greening criteria were meet. There is a risk with this rule, that one house will face a big loss (with big gains) for all the others). This is ok ifit is on a losing horse but I suspect they were winners (I have not had the opportunity to check results). In any event, given the small sample size (one days racing) The risk of a big loss (150+) in one race) is still there. I recommend having a green all regardless of profit position at some later point in the race.

Other suggestions?

Regards,

Angus
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