US Presidential Election 2016

Betfair trading & Punting on politics. Be aware there is a lot of off topic discussion in this group centred on Political views.
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Trump is a value lay - IMHO

He chance of being the Republican nominee is about 1% and yet he is priced in at an 11% chance.
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marksmeets302
Posts: 527
Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

Looking at the spread (8.4 - 10.5) I'd say you just put your money where your mouth is and took at all the backs :lol:

I backed him at 12 a couple of months ago. Didn't expect him to win, but with his charisma I assumed the price would shorten.
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Naffman
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Hope he wins.
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marksmeets302
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Just noticed that Jebb Bush is no longer the favorite as republican nominee; marco rubio is.

And you can still lay Joe Biden (though at odds > 250). He announced he will not run for president.
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gazuty
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marksmeets302 wrote:Just noticed that Jebb Bush is no longer the favorite as republican nominee; marco rubio is.

And you can still lay Joe Biden (though at odds > 250). He announced he will not run for president.
Jebb's not raising enough money from the bush donor base at the moment.

Bidens odds factor in something goes wrong with Clinton (illness, death, massive scandal) and he gets drafted by the party back in.
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marksmeets302
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Bidens odds factor in something goes wrong with Clinton (illness, death, massive scandal) and he gets drafted by the party back in.
Something involving a cigar?
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marksmeets302
Posts: 527
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Trump now has the best odds to become the republican nominee. Who would have thought. I definitely traded out too soon.
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Euler
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Started at 350, which is quite amazing.
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CLOWNSHOES
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Joined: Sun Dec 28, 2014 8:04 pm

Naffman wrote:Hope he wins.
+1

Being Scottish i find it laughable that Nicola Sturgeon stripped him of his business title ... a person who based scotlands independence on Oil selling at $110 per barrel stripping a self made billionaire of his business title just as oil reached around $30 per barrel a mere 16 months down the line. farcical.
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LeTiss
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Let's be honest here, there are too many people who want to be judged kindly, through this modern day obsession with Political Correctness

There will many people who have condemned Trump publicly, who actually agree with him privately

I suspect he will gain much support, as the ordinary man & woman will like the cut of his jib. In difficult times people like straight talkers, not pussy footing tree huggers
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gazuty
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Location: Green land :)

Maybe the biggest wrong call I've ever made - when Trump was at 10 I drank the cool aid with a fire hose that an outsider who spent most of his life as a Democrat couldn't win the GOP nomination :shock: and built a massive (for me, maybe small for others) position against Trump.

If it all goes pear shaped then I guess I won't be paying PC for a month. :oops:
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LeTiss
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He hates Muslims gazuty

Whether you agree with him or not, that's currently a vote winner in most parts of the Western World
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Euler
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Zenyatta
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Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2010 4:17 pm

Might be worth firing in a Lay on Hillary Clinton, she's pretty short in the Presidental market now ($1.75 to win the Presidency).

Clinton's a competent and intelligent politician, but she lacks the 'likability' factor.

Bernie Sanders isn't far behind her in the polls, there's still a signficiant chance he might beat her to the democratic nomination.

If Clinton gets past Sanders , she will likely have to face Trump in the election. Whatever you may say about Trump, he knows how to win over a crowd. Clinton will have a fight on her hands, and the outcome is unpredictable.

LAY Clinton at $1.75.
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