Cheltenham 2016

The sport of kings.
Post Reply
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

I was just looking through some of the results from last year and thought Id share this (as I know a few people are running the "Lay the first to trade under 2" bot recently created by Dallas.
Data taken from Betfair Results (Timeform)
Of the 27(?) races, only 3 races had three runners that traded under 2 (NB: Empahsis on UNDER, many traded at 2).
There were 6 races that had two that traded under 2 *ie you would have broke even or thereabouts).
18 races where only the winner traded under 2 (thats high)
2 low losers at 1.05 and 1.07, Highest winner 240 in play

Maybe there is an automated strategy to trade back the first horse to trade under 1.98 (backing at 1.01 to make sure you get matched and maybe fire a lay bet in at 1.1 for eg to hedge..)

Just a though; but good luck eitherway!
Regards
Peter
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I was looking at data last night and it seems that 3 or under is the magic number at Cheltenham. Not many at 2 or under, it seems the market is more certain at Cheltenham than other courses.
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

Yep, I just thought that if anyone was using that particular BOT, it may save them a few quid.

Even in my Auto heyday; Chel never really lived up to expectations, perhaps the quality of the horses/jockeys etc..

If I get chance Ill have a look at 2014 if I can get the data
regards
Peter
icarus121
Posts: 259
Joined: Mon Nov 16, 2009 10:07 pm

Very nice heads up Gents.Thanks
User avatar
Dublin_Flyer
Posts: 688
Joined: Sat Feb 11, 2012 10:39 am

Haven't been active much at all lately, but best of luck to all the forumites for Cheltenham. May your backs all win, your lays all not win, and your trades all be the greenest of green!
User avatar
megarain
Posts: 2040
Joined: Thu May 16, 2013 1:26 pm
Contact:

Yeah, thx for the info.

I will be in the Betdaq box, on Day 1 .. if anyone going.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I was invited but I'll still be behind my trading screen this year. I'm condemned to attending duff racing for hospitality still :)

Please tell Betdaq how great our free Betdaq software is and how they need to provide us with much more funding to upgrade it!
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Here is the data graphed from 09-15, I remember 2013 being good.

https://public.tableau.com/views/Chelte ... showTabs=y
hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

That's very interesting research, I'd imagine there's a decent chance those sort of findings would be replicated at other big meetings / races.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Good stuff.

I stuck up a video on what the Cheltenham markets tend to look like from a pre-off trading perspective :-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrXumEhY_ZI
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Here are the charts from last year, to post time: -

http://www.betangel.com/betfair-charts/ ... heltenham/
oscar123
Posts: 404
Joined: Fri Apr 24, 2009 10:18 am

Many thanks for posting those charts. A great way to prepare and get ready for this years festival.
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Would anyone like the Betfair raw data for previous festivals / would anyone object to me posting it if some folk would like it?
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24700
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

I'm sure that would be welcome to the community
ricardodeano
Posts: 205
Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:03 pm

Euler wrote:I'm sure that would be welcome to the community
In which case, here's the Betfair win data. I've also put in the selections rank in terms of favouritism so knock yourselves out.

CAVEAT: If you spot any dodgy data or duplicate lines, let me know so I can give the data a good cleanse. Should be good though.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Horse racing”