Greyhound Scalping and Trading

We've gone to the dogs.
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Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

You need to take into account the back book% is before you fire the trades in. I trade every dog in the race, so the odds on all of them cant drop otherwise the book would be totally unbalanced which would lead to all the other bots and manual traders scrambling to take any odds on offer to close out their positions...[/quote]

So you have a condition of back book % being a certain figure? Also what you say about all dogs can't shorten at same time is of course true BUT if you've traded out for one tick on the ones that lengthen but lost a ton on the one or two that have a steam in, it still equals a loss overall.

My biggest issue is also the stop loss triggering far more often than a successful trade : - ()
cybernet69

Crazyskier wrote:You need to take into account the back book% is before you fire the trades in. I trade every dog in the race, so the odds on all of them cant drop otherwise the book would be totally unbalanced which would lead to all the other bots and manual traders scrambling to take any odds on offer to close out their positions...
So you have a condition of back book % being a certain figure? Also what you say about all dogs can't shorten at same time is of course true BUT if you've traded out for one tick on the ones that lengthen but lost a ton on the one or two that have a steam in, it still equals a loss overall.

My biggest issue is also the stop loss triggering far more often than a successful trade : - ()[/quote]

There was a race last night whereby the market went completely mad, with spikes up and down. I still managed to green up for £33.00 on each dog. I posted the screen shot before the race started, which listed all the bets. However, this was removed by moderators here as I wasn't using BA. I have 20 triggers, 3 per dog, LTB, Close, Profit and 2 others to close out 10 seconds before the race starts regardless of overall market position.
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Dallas
Posts: 22671
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Location: Working From Home

Crazyskier wrote:My biggest issue is also the stop loss triggering far more often than a successful trade : - ()
A possible way round this is instead of using a stop loss use the rule type
"Close trade on selection with or without greening"
with the "close trade profit condition"
and set the value you want to close at.

On its own that will be similar to using a stop loss and wil be triggered with price spikes etc
just the same - but if you also add a
"Historical Reletives odds cond"
and configure it so that the price has to of risen over time or traded there a number of seconds this will eliminate stops due to sudden spikes.
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

If you're posting screenshots of other software it's not that surprising the mods will remove it to be fair. You can just as easily post up a screenshot from the Betfair website either the market screen or betting pnl screen.

But I'd have to agree with PeterLe, revealing your winning strategies on a public forum is a sure way to scramble that golden egg regardless of how much you reveal. A few people might pat you on the back but plenty of others will just be looking for winnning snippets and happily undercut you.

Well done for finding an automated winning strategy they're not easy to find but unless you're trying to sell it, or some software, your philanthropic approach might not be the best if you want it to work in the long run.
cybernet69

Dallas wrote:
Crazyskier wrote:My biggest issue is also the stop loss triggering far more often than a successful trade : - ()
A possible way round this is instead of using a stop loss use the rule type
"Close trade on selection with or without greening"
with the "close trade profit condition"
and set the value you want to close at.

On its own that will be similar to using a stop loss and wil be triggered with price spikes etc
just the same - but if you also add a
"Historical Reletives odds cond"
and configure it so that the price has to of risen over time or traded there a number of seconds this will eliminate stops due to sudden spikes.
I agree. Also, because of the spikes in Greyhounds whereby your SL could get blown and just sit there miles away from the current back price you could also fire in a back bet @ 1.01 which would makesure you at least close the trade at the current best price.

Another strategy I also use is part manual whereby I goto the RP website and on each card look for the least fancied dog. Then 2 minutes before the race starts I will LTB the dog WHEN the back book% is < 110, back odds < 10 and it does have some volume traded. This works very well but cant be completely automated as you need to look at each race card. I guess you could just automate the dog with the highest back odds but that doesn't always correspond to what the RP is saying about the dog(s) or race. I use a 0 tick SL and 3 tick offset. But to close the trade I will fire it in @ 1.01, so I know my SL will always work/get matched. Hope this helps some traders/scalpers here.
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Crazyskier
Posts: 1157
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

I agree. Also, because of the spikes in Greyhounds whereby your SL could get blown and just sit there miles away from the current back price[/quote]

YUP - that's what I see most races and the stop loss only seems to be set by ticks not asking price?
cybernet69

Crazyskier wrote:I agree. Also, because of the spikes in Greyhounds whereby your SL could get blown and just sit there miles away from the current back price
YUP - that's what I see most races and the stop loss only seems to be set by ticks not asking price?[/quote]

YES. That's the biggest problem. Personally I think you should be able to set your SL by ticks or price. That way you could build a trigger to say if back_price <= x send a trade in @ 1.01 because most of the time setting or having a SL is useless especially on Greyhounds. Much better to close it out with the best price the market will offer. Maybe this could be a suggestion for the BA team ?
PeterLe
Posts: 3715
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm

This is easily done with Excel.
I often have both Guardian and Excel working in conjunction on the same market.
Guardian seems to have the edge where speed is needed, so I use that for bets that are speed dependant and then excel does the tidying up. for eg closing and greening at reverse price
cybernet69

I am not allowed to post my results here anymore.

One thing I have changed is to only trade during the last 60 seconds of each market. This seems to make it much more consistent with regards to price matching. Makes sense as this is the period when most of the money comes in. It also helps me cut down on the number of TX(s) so as to not incur any charges from betfair. :D

Cheers,
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

I dont think there is any objections to you posting results if there from your Betfair P&L page
guy333
Posts: 52
Joined: Sun Aug 16, 2015 9:47 am

PeterLe wrote: Look; Ill probably not be too popular saying this; but if you detail exactly what your doing in a public forum, your strategy will most probably stop working overnight as everyone will attempt to do the same thing.
Personally I think it is quite refreshing for someone to be willing to help other users.

Do you really think that a handful of copycats are going to affect a strategy when thousands of pounds are traded on each race?

Surely it is the interest of all users for as many fellow Bet Angel users as possible to find a winning strategy.

I am still plugging away but will have to cease my subscription if I cannot make it work soon.
LinusP
Posts: 1871
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

guy333 wrote: Do you really think that a handful of copycats are going to affect a strategy when thousands of pounds are traded on each race?
100%
guy333 wrote: Surely it is the interest of all users for as many fellow Bet Angel users as possible to find a winning strategy.
Its a zero sum game (almost), we are all against each other when it comes to the markets.
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Dallas
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Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

guy333 wrote:
PeterLe wrote: Look; Ill probably not be too popular saying this; but if you detail exactly what your doing in a public forum, your strategy will most probably stop working overnight as everyone will attempt to do the same thing.
Personally I think it is quite refreshing for someone to be willing to help other users.

Do you really think that a handful of copycats are going to affect a strategy when thousands of pounds are traded on each race?

Surely it is the interest of all users for as many fellow Bet Angel users as possible to find a winning strategy.

I am still plugging away but will have to cease my subscription if I cannot make it work soon.
Everyone would like to see fellow forum users making a profit but if everyone done exactly the same stratergy all would end up losing.

For example in horse racing dozens of users will be using some sort of IR stratergy looking for low odds but each will be using there own combination of triggers, staking and conditions like book%, WOM, latest prices & tick movements etc with all making some level of profit.
(PeterLe has previoustly posted how he himeself uses 3 variations on a stratergy on the same races each with slightly different settings - all which are profitable)

But if everyone started using exactly the same criteria any edge and profitablity has gone immedietly.

The forum is full of users all helping each other in one way or another and PeterLe in particular has handed out more than his fair share of help and advice to other users but there is a line between helping and guiding people and publically sharing the exact details of a stratergy which will benefit no one once copied by all.

As the saying goes there more than one way to skin a cat
cybernet69

guy333 wrote:
PeterLe wrote: Look; Ill probably not be too popular saying this; but if you detail exactly what your doing in a public forum, your strategy will most probably stop working overnight as everyone will attempt to do the same thing.
Personally I think it is quite refreshing for someone to be willing to help other users.

Do you really think that a handful of copycats are going to affect a strategy when thousands of pounds are traded on each race?

Surely it is the interest of all users for as many fellow Bet Angel users as possible to find a winning strategy.

I am still plugging away but will have to cease my subscription if I cannot make it work soon.
Hi,

Don't be put off if you are struggling to find something that works long term. We have all been there. Some of us for many years. More than 90% of people don't make a profit on Betfair or placing speculative bets at the local bookmakers. It's true that it is a zero sum game. But that doesn't mean you can't find an edge to any market. Yes, it takes time, unless you are lucky enough to know someone who is willing to share some knowledge. It took me 8 years to come up with something which works. The problem is you need to do allot of research, try it out, modify it, scrap it and usually start again. Most think/want a way of giving up their day job, press a button, walk away and come back to $$$$$ in their BF account. If everyone achieved that then nobody would offer odds on BF and alike of large financial institutions would just blow all the small people out of the water with stupid amounts both sides of a market. Some do by the way on certain horse races!!!. If you can't afford the BA subscription then take a break for a couple of months, do some research and paper trade ideas for awhile. Best of luck and keep your chin up, you will get there, it just takes allot of time and effort...

The best advice I can give you is NEVER EVER take the back or lay odds on offer. Look at the other prices available well away from the current market offers!!! ;) Depending on the market there will always be someone or a bot that will take YOUR offers when they are trying to close out their positions!!! ;)
xitian
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

cybernet69 wrote:The best advice I can give you is NEVER EVER take the back or lay odds on offer.
Isn't using a stop-loss taking odds which are on offer?
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