Trading Politics : EU Membership Referendum (Brexit)

Punting on politics
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LeTiss
Posts: 4437
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Sat Feb 20, 2016 2:08 pm

This is going to be an IMMENSE market

We've seen in recent years that Politics has become really huge on BF. The Scottish Independence vote was an absolute stonker

June 23rd £810k already matched

I thought I'd start a thread so we can all post our thoughts where we think this market will go

Currently

1.43 Stay
3.25 Leave

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Crazyskier
Posts: 459
Joined: Sat Feb 06, 2016 6:36 pm

Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:20 pm

Stay will SHORTEN by at least 15-20%

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LeTiss
Posts: 4437
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Sat Feb 20, 2016 5:30 pm

You're right, the price is shortening

However, I wouldn't be surprised to see that price bounce as we get nearer to June - this is what happened with the Scottish vote

Don't forget, UKIP won more votes than any other party at the last European Elections, so there's enough support to suggest it will be a competitve market


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Euler
Posts: 17152
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Sun Feb 21, 2016 6:50 pm

It should be a good market

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LeTiss
Posts: 4437
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:01 am

Already the bounce back for LEAVE - exactly what happened in Scotland

I'm interested in connected markets, I'm especially looking at the market for 'Next Conservative Leader'

Boris Johnson has been well fancied for 2 years. However, if LEAVE is the winner, then Cameron is finished. He cannot continue as Prime Minister having failed to convince the public on such an important issue.

This will lead to a leadership contest. Realistically, the only people that could run for it would be those who backed the LEAVE campaign, and therefore would now have the job of dealing with the transition. Johnson has pinned his colours to the LEAVE mast, making him the overwhelming favourite to take over from Cameron

The price for Johnson could be an interesting sideline to keep your eye on!

22nd Feb
Matched £1.1 Million

1.51 Stay
2.94 Leave

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Dallas
Posts: 10943
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
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Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:52 am

I have to applaud your angles on these markets LeTiss

hgodden
Posts: 1759
Joined: Thu Apr 16, 2009 2:13 pm

Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:12 am

LeTiss 4pm wrote:Already the bounce back for LEAVE - exactly what happened in Scotland

I'm interested in connected markets, I'm especially looking at the market for 'Next Conservative Leader'

Boris Johnson has been well fancied for 2 years. However, if LEAVE is the winner, then Cameron is finished. He cannot continue as Prime Minister having failed to convince the public on such an important issue.

This will lead to a leadership contest. Realistically, the only people that could run for it would be those who backed the LEAVE campaign, and therefore would now have the job of dealing with the transition. Johnson has pinned his colours to the LEAVE mast, making him the overwhelming favourite to take over from Cameron

The price for Johnson could be an interesting sideline to keep your eye on!

22nd Feb
Matched £1.1 Million

1.51 Stay
2.94 Leave
Love the 'unintentional' subliminal messages in there LeTiss, wouldn't want to LEAVE things to chance now would we! ;) :lol:

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superfrank
Posts: 2293
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Mon Feb 22, 2016 2:33 pm

Hopefully it will become a tight race despite all the mainstream parties, big business and the BBC all wanting to stay in.

Fascinating stuff.

Expect the pollsters to bolux it up again.

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Euler
Posts: 17152
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ
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Mon Feb 22, 2016 3:17 pm

From a personal perspective I would like to stay in the EU because I want the right to travel, live and work where I wish without a problem.

However I don't think the EU has brought much of the way in benefits as it's supposed to. Just look at the betting industry. When we started we serviced all EU countries. One by one they have all gone. So much for a free market.

So I'm not convinced by either argument.

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