Chill Out Area : When the gods are against you!!!!!!!

Relax and chat about anything not covered elsewhere.
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mhorro
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:22 am

I trade on horse racing but also gamble on horses This has to be the most frustrating week of my life from a gambling perspective. I just keep on getting 2nds and being mugged on the line the usual hard luck stories. So I analysed my results last night and was trying to work out what was going on here. We all have a bad run but this was getting ridiculous! Even my wife was getting frustrated as I screamed at the TV!!!! So I rechecked the races to see if I would pick the same selections or should I say my own software that I wrote many years to analyse form and my selections were exactly the same!

I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )

:D

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LeTiss
Posts: 3964
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:27 am

Why is your wife frustrated?

If you keep coming 2nd, she should be having the time of her life

mhorro
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:28 am

Cheers! :D

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 1897
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:01 am

mhorro wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:28 am
Cheers! :D
If your gambling rather then trading, the first thing you need to accept is are you picking winners or are you picking value bets?

When you are picking winners your far more likely to be emotionally effected as your aim to profit is from winning. However, if your picking value, the purpose is not to win but to find value. Value betters win because of thier margin and is more about turn over.

If your taking value it simply doesnt matter if your selections get beat because your not betting what you think will win but something that is over priced, in this scenario your losing streak is irrelevant because they are not your winning thoughts and just the noise of the variables.

If you want to pick consitant winners just back odds on horses.

Change your mentality. If your picking winners, know that you will have lomg losing runs. Or learn to bet value only and you will the have already accepted i am betting long term because i am not betting my most likely winners and am looking to profit over the year not today

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SeaHorseRacing
Posts: 1897
Joined: Fri May 20, 2016 7:06 pm

Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:02 am

LeTiss wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:27 am
Why is your wife frustrated?

If you keep coming 2nd, she should be having the time of her life
:D :lol:

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ANGELS15
Posts: 47
Joined: Wed Mar 22, 2017 9:57 am

Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:50 am

I remember many moons ago was having a really bad day. last fiver on a horse. It fell in the stalls as the gates opened! lol. I recall backing 13 consecutive seconds one day. About 15 years ago I switched to looking for value and found that it transformed my betting, learning to identify overpriced horses on the exchange. had many 25/1, 33/1 50/1 winners but having backed them on the exchange was getting winning odds from 150 all the way up to 1000. Nowadays I've used that experience to learn to trade them. If I absolutely think a horse is an outright bet I will still try and place an offset bet in running at say 1.33. You can end up losing a small part of your win but can save your bacon when they get headed in the last few yards having looked the winner 100 yards out.

mhorro
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:30 pm

Hi, Thanks for that certainly a eye opener. I normally bet around 6/1 or under. My method is based on the VDW Method ( Van Der wheil ). I automated these ratings by writing code to interrogate a database that contains all of the horse racing results across the world and is updated everyday. I then data mine using native SQL in stored procedures. It basically slices and dices he data for that day's declarations. I use it also to look for patterns i.e. weight, unexposed horses drop in class. I only back on Handicaps as I love punishment!!!!!! :D

mhorro
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:23 am

Hope the god's favour me today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

mhorro
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 1:16 pm
Location: Cheshire

Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:15 pm

One good winner and a None runner!!!!!

:D

Derek27
Posts: 837
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:48 am

mhorro wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:22 am
I trade on horse racing but also gamble on horses This has to be the most frustrating week of my life from a gambling perspective. I just keep on getting 2nds and being mugged on the line the usual hard luck stories. So I analysed my results last night and was trying to work out what was going on here. We all have a bad run but this was getting ridiculous! Even my wife was getting frustrated as I screamed at the TV!!!! So I rechecked the races to see if I would pick the same selections or should I say my own software that I wrote many years to analyse form and my selections were exactly the same!

I think when your luck is down you have to just put up with it as it will end sooner or later! ( Let's hope! )

:D
If you're getting angry, whether you're gambling or trading, it's best to stop. You cannot make money on the exchange unless you are calm, focused and thinking straight. It's a psychological problem that everybody has experienced at some time. If somebody's losing money, it's not necessarily the case that his luck's down - he could be using a strategy that consistently loses!

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