General discussion : Question for Arbers

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nikigatrell2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 3:47 pm

Wed May 16, 2018 1:12 pm

I've been running a successful horse racing system since last year and we currently have 27 members with balances ranging from £1k (starting balance) up to £2.5k and stakes from £12.50 to £25. The system has anywhere from 3-20 selections a day and we work off an 80pt bank per month, either upping stakes or paying out if bank is over £2.5k at the end of it. This may change however but we had £25 as a max stake.

At the start we used the 3 early bookmakers and utilised their BOG. Over the months we've lost the main 3 and are now onto our next set of BOG but we're starting to struggle to get bets on and will be soon using none BOG bookies and just taking the price the night before. We're going to have to split this between multiple accounts and with 27 members this is going to become very time consuming. So I've have had an idea and would like to know your thoughts:

Instead of taking none BOG bookies and spreading stakes across multiple bookies as our stakes increase I'd like to centralise the entire fund and use the exchange, but the night before has very little liquidity and I'm going to need £1k matched per selection and this will go up as banks increase and new members are added.

My idea was at 6pm when SkyBet, bet365 and Betfair release their prices I drop my £1k into the market on all of my selections at a lower price than the bookmakers, creating an Arb.

If I did this what kind of Arb would be required in order to make it worthwhile for Arbers based on below bookie prices for example.

7/4
5/2
4/1
6/1
8/1
12/1
16/1
20/1
33/1
50/1
100/1

Would using just 3 bookies attract enough arbers and which Exchange would you recommend?

I'm hoping to use the 3 main ones early as theirs more value and if arbers have BOG they will also catch more value on the drifters, of which, there are many.

nikigatrell2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 3:47 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 11:46 am

Any opinion on this?

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BetScalper
Posts: 770
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 11:56 am

Market makers do this already 24 hours before the start of the market. In general they offer very poor odds, hoping that some mug punter makes a mistake and takes one of their bets. Sometimes though they do overprice a selection but normally the value seekers will find them and take the bet.

I think you joined the game about 10 years too late mate.

Goodluck,

nikigatrell2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 3:47 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 12:08 pm

Thank you for the reply. Every single one I put in will be value.

Bookie is offering 9.0 I will look to take 8.50. I want the bets matched and let my system make the profit.

spreadbetting
Posts: 1616
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 12:22 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 11:56 am
Market makers do this already 24 hours before the start of the market. In general they offer very poor odds, hoping that some mug punter makes a mistake and takes one of their bets. Sometimes though they do overprice a selection but normally the value seekers will find them and take the bet.

I think you joined the game about 10 years too late mate.

Goodluck,
He's not looking for mugs, or competing with mm's, he's looking for arbers to take his bets by offering under bookies odds.

Been a long time since I've done any arbing as maintaing accounts is too much hassle. I'd say your best bet is to start dipping your toe in the waters and sticking some bets into the markets to see what sort of prices arbers will currently bite for. A lot of people will ARB for pc as well so you may we'll find you don't have to go as low as you might imagine.

weemac
Posts: 298
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 8:16 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 12:28 pm

If they won't take your bets at their price when there isn't an arb, why on earth would they take bets from arbers, who they despise with a passion, at the same price when there is an arb?

Derek27
Posts: 2563
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:44 am
Location: UK

Thu May 17, 2018 2:21 pm

nikigatrell2 wrote:
Wed May 16, 2018 1:12 pm
I've been running a successful horse racing system since last year and we currently have 27 members with balances ranging from £1k (starting balance) up to £2.5k and stakes from £12.50 to £25. The system has anywhere from 3-20 selections a day and we work off an 80pt bank per month, either upping stakes or paying out if bank is over £2.5k at the end of it. This may change however but we had £25 as a max stake.

At the start we used the 3 early bookmakers and utilised their BOG. Over the months we've lost the main 3 and are now onto our next set of BOG but we're starting to struggle to get bets on and will be soon using none BOG bookies and just taking the price the night before. We're going to have to split this between multiple accounts and with 27 members this is going to become very time consuming. So I've have had an idea and would like to know your thoughts:

Instead of taking none BOG bookies and spreading stakes across multiple bookies as our stakes increase I'd like to centralise the entire fund and use the exchange, but the night before has very little liquidity and I'm going to need £1k matched per selection and this will go up as banks increase and new members are added.

My idea was at 6pm when SkyBet, bet365 and Betfair release their prices I drop my £1k into the market on all of my selections at a lower price than the bookmakers, creating an Arb.

If I did this what kind of Arb would be required in order to make it worthwhile for Arbers based on below bookie prices for example.

7/4
5/2
4/1
6/1
8/1
12/1
16/1
20/1
33/1
50/1
100/1

Would using just 3 bookies attract enough arbers and which Exchange would you recommend?

I'm hoping to use the 3 main ones early as theirs more value and if arbers have BOG they will also catch more value on the drifters, of which, there are many.
I don't mean to be funny but I'm rather surprised you're trusted to run the betting operation if you can't even work out what price would be an arb.

Betting is all about getting a price in your favour. You cannot possibly make money if you let bookies decide what price you take, which is what your idea involves. You also need to consider commission. Arbers need a gap below what bookies are offering to compensate for commission charges and you will get an even smaller price than you are taking after accounting for commission deductions.

LinusP
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 3:48 pm

1k per runner is tricky (very tricky) with 5 minutes to go let alone the night before!

I think you will find bookmakers moving their price way before you even get close to 10% being matched by arbers. Is there no value in your system with 10/5mins to go?

nikigatrell2
Posts: 5
Joined: Mon May 14, 2018 3:47 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 8:54 pm

Derek27 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 2:21 pm

I don't mean to be funny but I'm rather surprised you're trusted to run the betting operation if you can't even work out what price would be an arb.

Betting is all about getting a price in your favour. You cannot possibly make money if you let bookies decide what price you take, which is what your idea involves. You also need to consider commission. Arbers need a gap below what bookies are offering to compensate for commission charges and you will get an even smaller price than you are taking after accounting for commission deductions.
I know what an Arb is :D What I was meant was what sort or % size Arb would be required to make it worthwhile for an arber.

All I'm trying to do is get slightly less than the bookie price the night before via the exchange by creating an Arb.

But I'm hearing that £1k may spook the market, so maybe I need to drip the money in adjusting as the bookie does from 6pm through the night.

There is value in BSP but it's very small in comparison to wrongly priced horses the night before. The value when using BOG is unbeatable, non BOG night before is 20% lower and BSP is 50% lower.

LinusP
Posts: 1394
Joined: Mon Jul 02, 2012 10:45 pm

Thu May 17, 2018 9:48 pm

nikigatrell2 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 8:54 pm
Derek27 wrote:
Thu May 17, 2018 2:21 pm

I don't mean to be funny but I'm rather surprised you're trusted to run the betting operation if you can't even work out what price would be an arb.

Betting is all about getting a price in your favour. You cannot possibly make money if you let bookies decide what price you take, which is what your idea involves. You also need to consider commission. Arbers need a gap below what bookies are offering to compensate for commission charges and you will get an even smaller price than you are taking after accounting for commission deductions.
I know what an Arb is :D What I was meant was what sort or % size Arb would be required to make it worthwhile for an arber.

All I'm trying to do is get slightly less than the bookie price the night before via the exchange by creating an Arb.

But I'm hearing that £1k may spook the market, so maybe I need to drip the money in adjusting as the bookie does from 6pm through the night.

There is value in BSP but it's very small in comparison to wrongly priced horses the night before. The value when using BOG is unbeatable, non BOG night before is 20% lower and BSP is 50% lower.
And 10 minutes out? If you don’t have the data it’s worth collect it.

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