CallumPerry wrote: ↑
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:07 pm
I personally think at this stage you just go in with small stakes and try it out. Otherwise you run the risk of over-fitting. That's looks as good of an indicator to give it a go with a couple of quid you don't mind losing as anything I can imagine. Track everything when you go live and then after a few hundred markets you should see whether it looks promising, after a few thousand if it still works you've cracked it!
May I ask, what programmes do you lot use to back test? I'm just using excel. Say I use a one second logger and record all of the key information in the spreadsheet from 20 minutes out until 00:00:00 that's 1,200 rows of data per market. If I record thousand like you lot have and try and get excel to create charts and stuff it would just freeze. I've seen a video before, I think it was on Nigelk's YouTube channel where there was a loading bar. Is this something you lot use or is it a completely different programme? Point me in the right direction please!
I've written a suite of programs.
First one is the Logger; every half second it logs pretty much everything it gets from the Betfair API starting at 30 mins pre-scheduled off, until the race is suspended after going in-play. So the amount of data is vast - hence slow to process.
Then I have the Simulator that mimics the Betfair API and can replay the data logged by the Logger.
Finally a Strategy-Runner calls the Simulator as though it was Betfair to get data and allows me to test strategies. The strategy receives the data one row at a time, does the processing and then places the bets. The bet matching is simulated to mimic real-life as closely as possible. My simulator outputs a results file that I load into excel to do charts and other stuff.
I've tested loads of strategies but have only managed to get one that is profitable so far- I'm hoping this one will be my second. The beauty is that once the strategy is coded, it's a one-line code change to make it use the real API .. and the 'bot' is born