Hi All
I Traded some horse races last night with a little success which is good but I still do not fundamentally understand how the market works in sport betting. Perhaps someone can explain. I was always under the impression that a horses price is governed by the amount of money backed on the horse. The more money the shorter its price. However last night I noticed that the more money that was matched on a horse it either flew up or flew down in price. I am assuming that this was because it depended on whether money was being layed or backed. Price goes up if layed and down if backed. Is that a correct assumption ?
Also on the betangel ladder lay and back columns the amounts showing in these columns are unmatched bets( please correct me if i am wrong)
So we have all this money in the market waiting to be matched and sometimes I have noticed there is a large build up of funds on one side as opposed to the other if this is evident then what does that suggest the price is going to do ?
Im obviously very new to all this so hope someone can help
Cheers
Some basic questions
With bookies, the more money placed on a horse the more it shortens, the less money placed the more it lengthens.garydodge wrote: ↑Sun Feb 23, 2020 1:35 amHi All
I Traded some horse races last night with a little success which is good but I still do not fundamentally understand how the market works in sport betting. Perhaps someone can explain. I was always under the impression that a horses price is governed by the amount of money backed on the horse. The more money the shorter its price. However last night I noticed that the more money that was matched on a horse it either flew up or flew down in price. I am assuming that this was because it depended on whether money was being layed or backed. Price goes up if layed and down if backed. Is that a correct assumption ?
Also on the betangel ladder lay and back columns the amounts showing in these columns are unmatched bets( please correct me if i am wrong)
So we have all this money in the market waiting to be matched and sometimes I have noticed there is a large build up of funds on one side as opposed to the other if this is evident then what does that suggest the price is going to do ?
Im obviously very new to all this so hope someone can help
Cheers
But on the exchange, for every back bet there's an equal lay bet, and unlike with bookes you can place 'offers' at a higher price. When people back at, for example, 4.5, all the money at 4.5 disappears, the next available price is 4.4 and when that money gets taken the price will get shorter and shorter. Conversely, if nobody's backing at 4.5 but people are laying it at 4.6, all that money goes and the next lay price is 4.7, so the horse drifts. Obviously, if one horse is getting backed and shortening one or more others have to drift to balance the book.
When there's a large buildup of money on one side of the book (known as weight of money) it does suggest that the price will move in the opposite direction but that's certainly not always the case and shouldn't be taken for granted. It can sometimes be a static market, spoofers, etc.
yes
To some extent although it's more complicated than that. It's only a snapshot, so the money on the otherside may not have showed up or may be showing up in batches. So it doesn't really tell the whole story.garydodge wrote: ↑ Also on the betangel ladder lay and back columns the amounts showing in these columns are unmatched bets( please correct me if i am wrong)
So we have all this money in the market waiting to be matched and sometimes I have noticed there is a large build up of funds on one side as opposed to the other if this is evident then what does that suggest the price is going to do ?
- ShaunWhite
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Only three things determine the probability of a price moving. The rate the new offers are being made, the rate those offers are being filled (taken by someone) and the rate that existing offers are being cancelled. When the rate of new offers = fill rate + cancelation rate then the market is static. Any imbalance and it will move.
It's the same in any market, it's all about supply and demand. Eg how many apples are being put up for sale at 2.5, how many apples are being bought at 2.5 and how many sellers are taking their apples at 2.5 off the market. In that regard there's nothing unusual or special about sports markets, but instead of buying and selling apples, people are buying and selling the probability of an outcome, and the market forces described above determine what that probability (aka price) is generally considered to be fair at any given moment in time.
It's the same in any market, it's all about supply and demand. Eg how many apples are being put up for sale at 2.5, how many apples are being bought at 2.5 and how many sellers are taking their apples at 2.5 off the market. In that regard there's nothing unusual or special about sports markets, but instead of buying and selling apples, people are buying and selling the probability of an outcome, and the market forces described above determine what that probability (aka price) is generally considered to be fair at any given moment in time.
- firlandsfarm
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Unfortunately you also have to factor in 'fake money' within the points already made about price movement. Peter sometimes mentions this in his trading videos. It goes like this … current price 3.00/3.05, WOM equally balanced at 50/50 with say £1,000 waiting on the next 3 prices on both the back and lay sides. A perfect balance. Then Mr Faker comes along and tries to influence the market by suddenly asking to back £1,000 at 3.2. The weight of money suddenly changes to 33/67 and no one wants to be behind the new £1,000 so they put their money in front of it. This causes the price to fall to say 2.94/2.96. Mr Faker now lays at 2.96, the new current market price and withdraws their £1,000 back requested at 3.2 (they never intended for it to get taken). When they remove the £1,000 (and all things being equal) the market returns to it's previous 3.00/3.05 price level enabling Mr Faker to now match off their new lay bet with a back bet at 3.00. Some spot Mr Faker and profitably follow him, others, like me, fail to spot him and lose money trying to trade!
That's one of the reasons why I've grown to really like the inplay markets, there's hardly any spoofing and other types of shenanigans, almost everything you see is real. A trader among a bunch of gamblers can at times feel like a wolf among sheep. But interestingly enough preoff football markets don't really give a damn about spoofers, they're just doing their thing, plus through crossmatching it gets a bit easier to see from what direction the real money comes from.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:45 amUnfortunately you also have to factor in 'fake money' within the points already made about price movement.
That's one of the key things about reading order flow for me, weight of money can randomly flip flop a lot so logically it becomes less relevant just how much money sits there unmatched, the key thing for me in general to watch is how much money is actually getting matched, how and where. The only real metric and indicator that a trader should ever need to trade is the matched column, there's no spoofing that one.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 5:45 amSome spot Mr Faker and profitably follow him, others, like me, fail to spot him and lose money trying to trade!
Spoofers in a nutshell : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-oCHWsNZwI
- firlandsfarm
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I've tried in running horses and found it often moves too far and fast when it's jumping around all over the place! You can blink and it's gone off the ladder (and so has your money!). And in play games I find too unpredictable, in a split second your profit can be a loss because a goal is scored or Ben Stokes is out!
Don't really see how that's a bad thing The jumping all over the place means that there's probably a lot of uncertainty during that period, but the fact that it's actually real (and not fake) is all a trader can really ask for.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:23 pmI've tried in running horses and found it often moves too far and fast when it's jumping around all over the place!
Again, great uncertainty can often translate into great opportunity, depending on how you want to see it I guess.firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:23 pmYou can blink and it's gone off the ladder (and so has your money!). And in play games I find too unpredictable, in a split second your profit can be a loss because a goal is scored or Ben Stokes is out!
- firlandsfarm
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Yes, uncertainty can be a profit opportunity but it depends on the type of uncertainty. Uncertainty in the market with punters backing and laying and odds swinging can be a profitable thing but uncertainty in an action such as a goal is scored or a wicket falls is a random action, cannot be planned and is usually down to luck if you are exposed or not when the ball goes over the line.
It's up to the trader to make sure that any risk he takes is a calculated one, goes without saying. Even though there are many good traders around that accept this sort of "inplay randomness" for lack of a better word, because for them it evens out in the long run, while all the work that they do in between more than makes up for it.
Talking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.
- firlandsfarm
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- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
I share your thoughts Gary which is why I don't trade. I do price watch in an attempt to understand. A typical example for me was a race last week when the price had been steady for a reasonable time then suddenly jumped 10 ticks for no reason I could see. WOM was within 60/40 range, spread of money was reasonably balanced both sides, price history was stable, no new/fake money suddenly hit the market. Maybe it was caused by a sudden crash in the price of the 4th or 5th favourite, I don't know and with bots constantly trawling the markets for over/under books every millisecond such price moves are instantaneous anyway. You don't get the time to say "that one is coming in so this one will probably go out". I just laughed at the absurdity of it!garydodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:17 amTalking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.
I'd guess some of those videos where from a few years ago when the markets were a bit more stable.garydodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:17 amTalking about jumping all over the place, something i've noticed is when viewing the betangeltv videos when Peter enters a position all seems nice and calm, he swings into the green with a minimum of fuss and gently eases out, even when the start of the race is a 60 seconds or so away. When I am looking at the market it always seems that from about 5 minutes before jump the prices start fluctuating quite violently. Last night for instance a few minutes before races in England the price swings were frenetic. No entering gently into a trade like Peter always seems to. From what I have seen so far most of the time this is the case just frantic up and down movement as the race gets closer. Just wondering where Peter gets these gentle moving markets from. Can anyone enlighten me.