Trading Horse racing : Betfair charts of the day

The sport of kings.
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weemac
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Fri May 11, 2018 8:58 pm

eightbo wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:15 pm
Can't speak for anyone else but mine was intended as a pretty picture.

What would you have done with the context?
[/quote]

I'd have looked at the runner, its connections, price action, race type, context and race result later in greater detail to try and learn from it. No-one can do these things without knowing what the chart depicted.

It wasn't an unreasonable request, surely?

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eightbo
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Fri May 11, 2018 9:27 pm

weemac wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:58 pm
It wasn't an unreasonable request, surely?
not at all, unfortunately as I didn't end up trading that market, the only information I can give you is that it must've been from the 17:20, 17:25, or 17:30 race and that the image was captured over 5mins out to post. the price didn't move much from what the image shows. Feel like it was the 17:20 at Curragh, might be able to work it out based on SPs.

I've saved countless graphs that I find interesting but have never followed them up with analysis, have you been able to apply anything useful to your trading based on what you've found from exploring the details you mentioned relating to a chart?

weemac
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Fri May 11, 2018 9:58 pm

Well, yes and no. My learning has mostly come from sources other than charts, but it's frustrating not knowing which horse(s) produced the charts in question on this thread, but anyway I've found that studying chart action, even only the chart action on this thread, has been a valuable additional tool.

Seeing the same patterns repeating time and again was how I started to understand the habits of certain trainers, jockeys and trainer/jockey combos, and how these habits relate to the betting markets in particular race types and situations. I have nothing written down but it's all somehow lodged in my peanut-sized brain over the years. I've learned a lot about the habits of many people in racing simply by watching the price action of their horses. Money talks. And the betting public, and traders, and loads of other people all have their peculiar habits too which end up being represented on these charts. That's why I'd like to know the name of a horse when a chart is posted.

When you see a pretty picture, don't you long to understand at least some of the mechanics behind what produced it?

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jimibt
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Joined: Mon Nov 30, 2015 6:42 pm

Fri May 11, 2018 10:01 pm

weemac wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 9:58 pm
Well, yes and no. My learning has mostly come from sources other than charts, but it's frustrating not knowing which horse(s) produced the charts in question on this thread, but anyway I've found that studying chart action, even only the chart action on this thread, has been a valuable additional tool.

Seeing the same patterns repeating time and again was how I started to understand the habits of certain trainers, jockeys and trainer/jockey combos, and how these habits relate to the betting markets in particular race types and situations. I have nothing written down but it's all somehow lodged in my peanut-sized brain over the years. I've learned a lot about the habits of many people in racing simply by watching the price action of their horses. Money talks. And the betting public, and traders, and loads of other people all have their peculiar habits too which end up being represented on these charts. That's why I'd like to know the name of a horse when a chart is posted.

When you see a pretty picture, don't you long to understand at least some of the mechanics behind what produced it?
i totally agree, i sometimes see a chart, with no runner name and unless you've been in the thin=ck of it, there is no context to allow you to determine which runner it is. this is course is MOSTLY a betfair issue, due to how charts are presented as png's, but a small additional bit of info from the poster would go a long way, especially when reviewing long after the event and only having the time of the post to somehow home in on the race/runner...

let's make it law :D

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eightbo
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Fri May 11, 2018 11:21 pm

Makes sense. I'm happy you've asked actually as I've never really given it much thought.

For me, I've come to genuinely expect nothing from any individual runner (and the chart they produce), no matter what their connections are, who the jockey is, time of day, and so on.

Whilst I'm sure there are definitely patterns to be found and exploited there, this helps in making sound decisions which aren't skewed by any biases such as, say, expecting a horse to have a higher chance of being backed in late given its connections or something like that.

So when I see a chart -- no I don't have any urge to know what got it to that point. In fact the way I see it is as follows in my amazing drawing that shows 3 differing outcomes where the start is the same, and at the point of the blue line any of these outcomes (and more) are possible:
random-ex1.JPG
and whilst all the possible outcomes are not going to be equally likely, it makes sense to me to treat them that way and to just deal with what's in front of you in each specific instance, as you are not dealing with solely that runner and its connections etc, but there are other variables which will affect it as well (conditions, who is gambling that day, trainers intentions, all the other runners in that race and all the variables that come with them, etc.)

If somebody posted either of these 3 charts, I genuinely see the one single instance as just a [nearly] random outcome -- one where there is wayyyy too many variables at play to look for a pattern which you can justify having an affect your decision-making in the long-term. So for me, evaluating chart #1 is really not so different from evaluating chart #2 or #3, and as such, any chart posted up on this thread could easily have been different which might lead you to different conclusions.

Further to that, if you're looking to evaluate a chart someone posts, what's the point unless you are going to be looking at all of the data, all of the variables? Any patterns you find might just in fact be spurious correlations, for example if you are not even considering the other selections from that race there are simply too many possibilities as to why that single specific outcome has occurred. That's really the key here, one chart is just one instance of what could have happened, and without some large and carefully documented dataset I just think the effort taken to evaluate the charts is wasted if you can't quantify exactly why it is, and how likely it is, that these moves occur.
e.g. Let's say you feel like you've identified some patterns from looking at charts of runners and their connections and maybe some other variables etc. and that you have started to alter your trading (decision-making) because of these patterns and are enjoying some further profitability because of this. If/when that pattern disappears temporarily and you can't quantify all the details of the pattern, or a new pattern appears that contradicts your existing pattern, then how can you move forward with any confidence? You'll likely just get in your own head and end up confused and mentally you could be back at square 1.

...And if you did have a large dataset to back up your change in decisions, then, well... all power to you.
But in that scenario, the question now becomes whether the time and effort spent on quantifying everything justify the additional profit that it brings (and maybe it does).

I think there is definitely value in knowing what tracks/meetings are more likely to produce which kinds of graphs, just don't expect anything from the individual runners.

No right/wrong way here of course but that's how I see it.

Congrats if you read all that ... :D
What do you think? Am I talking sh*te for the sake of it? Or is that making some sense?
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Derek27
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Fri May 11, 2018 11:55 pm

I always identify the horse and race when posting charts even if it's a US race that nobody would know or care about, for the simple reason that without an identity it is nothing more than a meaningless squiggly line!

In fact, I can now understand why my teachers would get so angry when I handed in a piece of work and didn't write my name on it. :lol:

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eightbo
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Sat May 12, 2018 12:18 am

Derek27 wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 11:55 pm
I always identify the horse and race when posting charts even if it's a US race that nobody would know or care about, for the simple reason that without an identity it is nothing more than a meaningless squiggly line!

In fact, I can now understand why my teachers would get so angry when I handed in a piece of work and didn't write my name on it. :lol:
I named my masterpiece "staircase"

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Dallas
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Mon May 14, 2018 3:25 pm

Epic drifter in the 15:25
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eightbo
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Tue May 15, 2018 5:49 pm

Waited all day for this
:D :D
Diocles Of Rom 1750-0252.JPG
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Korattt
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Tue May 15, 2018 6:10 pm

eightbo wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 5:49 pm
Waited all day for this
:D :D Diocles Of Rom 1750-0252.JPG
cracking result, fair play 👍🏻

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