Inplay trading .... Quitting tips please

[Iron]

Hi Wayne

No worries.

Sitting on your hands is one of the most important but difficult skills to master in my opinion! I've lost more money than I care to think about through over-trading! LOL!

If NLP interests you, and you just want to get to techniques rather than going through all the theoretical stuff, I'd recommend Paul McKenna's books. You might also be interested in Tony Robbins' books and DVDs (if you look him up on YouTube, you'll find loads of his stuff).

Jeff

This sounds good advice, I have a daily spread sheet already but I will now be keeping a monthly one so a bad trade loss looks less significant in the scheme of things, I have had one lapse this week (yesterday) due to sheer boredom and yep ended up £100 red which effectively ruined my day as I then chased for the next hour but had some good results from the rest of the week so not so bad overall.

I will give the tip from the NLP book a go also sounds interesting
Cheers

[superfrank]

Letting races go in-play is my number 1 error and has cost me thousands. I tend to trade fairly late, and I don't won't to stop that, but it's difficult concentrating on the screen and the tv at the same time and I often missed the off and have to panic out (sometimes at a chunky loss). It would make more sense to wait 5 or 10 seconds after the off before greening up (so that I get a fair share of the ones that go my way, and not just the ones against), but that feels like gambling.

What I really need is a global setting in Bet Angel that will automatically green up any open positions at the off time using SP. I guess this would require work at Betfair's end, as well as BA. Has this been looked into or suggested before?

Regards.

[Nero Tulip]

Trading inplay is full of danger, there are people at the courses now, as well as the aforementioned fast pictures people. You are at a disadvantage to do it, it's as simple as that - you have a negative expectancy, you may as well be playing roulette.

Letting things "go in play" is another matter that I've always found slightly mystifying. Where are the folks who have made the lucky £1000s from accidentally doing this ?

All you read about anywhere is that letting it go in play will cost you, but if everyone let it go, and didn't touch the position, wouldn't the randomly distributed results produce only a very slight loss overall - after commission?

Given that the betfair books are approx 100%, the prices at off supposedly the most accurate and that you've been trading just before the off and have (hopefully) on average a slightly positive value position to SP - where is the bad value coming from ? Why does everyone lose ?

I can only assume that either everyone that lets it go in play has done so out of desperation that they have a negative value position ? Or that they fiddle with the position in running out of neccessity, since they are using a high proportion of their bank to trade with ?

[superfrank]

People lose because they panic out and only let the ones ride when it goes against them when they can't get out immediately. You're right in that it would be better to let them all ride, or least wait a few seconds before getting out in-play to catch a fair share of good ones. The temptation is always to get out ASAP which is the problem. I just wish it could be automated using SP.

[Zapata]

My logic behind this is that only one horse is going to win and if you get stuck in a bad position and let the race go in-play it is easier to bail out of an in-play lay bet than a back bet since most of the time the price will go in your favour anyhow. The overround is often much higher in-play as well giving plenty of opportunities to get out of the trade.

So I suggest that you lay then back until you learn to leave the market at the correct time. Good Luck.

[superfrank]

I don't buy that. I mainly trade the fav, and if it gets out Ok the price will shorten, and if it gets outs in front it often collapses depends on the type of race.

[Iron]

Hi Zapata

I used to often think 'This is a competitive race. This horse is bound to shorten or lengthen in-play at some point, and I'll be fine'. But the 1 time in 10 that that doesn't happen (say, because the horse makes all), you lose lots of money, so it's a poor strategy long-term.

IMHO, unless you have live pictures and know how to read what's happening in a race, going in-play is gambling. If you have a consistent edge, you'll make consistent profits, so there's no need to gamble.

Jeff

My logic behind this is that only one horse is going to win and if you get stuck in a bad position and let the race go in-play it is easier to bail out of an in-play lay bet than a back bet since most of the time the price will go in your favour anyhow. The overround is often much higher in-play as well giving plenty of opportunities to get out of the trade.

So I suggest that you lay then back until you learn to leave the market at the correct time. Good Luck.

[oddstrader]

Well put Ferr123

Hi Zapata

I used to often think 'This is a competitive race. This horse is bound to shorten or lengthen in-play at some point, and I'll be fine'. But the 1 time in 10 that that doesn't happen (say, because the horse makes all), you lose lots of money, so it's a poor strategy long-term.

IMHO, unless you have live pictures and know how to read what's happening in a race, going in-play is gambling. If you have a consistent edge, you'll make consistent profits, so there's no need to gamble.

Jeff

My logic behind this is that only one horse is going to win and if you get stuck in a bad position and let the race go in-play it is easier to bail out of an in-play lay bet than a back bet since most of the time the price will go in your favour anyhow. The overround is often much higher in-play as well giving plenty of opportunities to get out of the trade.

So I suggest that you lay then back until you learn to leave the market at the correct time. Good Luck.

[Zapata]

Hi Jeff, I must admit that I am a gambler more than a trader. Often before the race gets started I do as described above to pass the time, lay then back and when the race starts trade some of my liabilities off. Not every-ones cup of tea but I just don't have the discipline or patience to trade pre-race all day. Wish I did.

[Iron]

Hi Zapata

Fair enough.

BTW, if placing just a few trades per day is your cup of tea, have you considered trading the financial markets on (say) a 4 hour or daily timeframe? That way, you could just place your trade, and forget about it for a while.

One tried and tested financial system is the 123 Method (http://www.tradejuice.com/forex/forex-1 ... ode-mm.htm). It's also supported by statistics - see http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html.

I suspect that it works because, when its clear that the market direction has turned, people who had bet on the market going in the original direction jump over each other to close their trades, forcing the market further in the new direction and possibly creating a new bubble.

Jeff

Hi Jeff, I must admit that I am a gambler more than a trader. Often before the race gets started I do as described above to pass the time, lay then back and when the race starts trade some of my liabilities off. Not every-ones cup of tea but I just don't have the discipline or patience to trade pre-race all day. Wish I did.

[Zapata]

Hi Jeff, I'd never even thought of financials before. That looks very interesting and I'll have a good read later. Cheers.

[Iron]

Hi Zapata

No worries.

I actually know someone who makes a very good living from using a variation of that method, and I intend to use it myself once my current period of paper trading ends.

At some point, I may try it out on Betfair. Despite the differences between Betfair and the financial markets, there are lots of similarities, presumably as both are products of the same human emotions. In fact, if I were to show you a 10 second candlestick chart from Betfair and a 1 day Forex chart, I'm not sure you'd be able to tell which was which! If I'm feeling particularly bored one day, I might actually give that a go!

Jeff

Hi Jeff, I'd never even thought of financials before. That looks very interesting and I'll have a good read later. Cheers.

[Nero Tulip]

On reflection, my questions sort of answered themselves.

People panic close because they are not exposed to the correct proportions for a gamble. They leverage their funds in order to trade (not that leverage is quite the right term) and thus expose a larger % of their bank than they would ever choose to gamble. Which suggests a solution is to only trade with exposures you are happy to lose in a gamble.

I have automated trading strategies running on all sort of things, and although my goal is to ultimately have a square book at the off, this occurs less than 1 in 10 times. I always end up with gamble-type exposures, but I'm more than happy to let them run their course and take the variance. I have my good and bad days, but due to the trading being EV+ and thus leaving me with a value position, running them really doesn't make a jot of difference. It's does help with the prem charge too.

I disagree about things being bound to move one way or the other. I've botted in running before, I broke even, but there is no guarantee anything will move where you think it might, even with the volatility in running. The traders at the course and on tv and much more efficient that they are given credit for at times.

[mister man]

I agree with Mr Tulip.

I could add, that its about most peoples reluctance to red out, rather than green out, and this applies both to in play and before the off.
whilst pre off is less volatile and less risky, going in play has potential for greater loss or profit, and isnt that risk reward ratio the very essence of gambling.
and if you are going to say trading isnt gambling, it is, when a price moves for you or against you, you are just using your judgement and experience to predict it

[Iron]

I accept that you can never be sure of the outcome of a trade.

But if your techniques work time after time, and you use sensible money management, then realistically you will make money over a large number of trades.

Put it this way: I wouldn't take back odds of 999-1 on Peter Webb not making an overall profit over 1000 trades (even though it's statistically possible).

So I would say that the word 'investment' describes what a professional trader does, rather than 'gambling'. Yes, there is a small element of risk, but show me somewhere you can put your money where that isn't the case!

Jeff

and if you are going to say trading isnt gambling, it is, when a price moves for you or against you, you are just using your judgement and experience to predict it