Confessions Of A Recovering Hothead Trader

[Iron]

Thanks Tony.

I've previously watched some of MG's videos, but I'm not sure they will help me understand what JG and Euler are getting at, purely as I believe that MG trades purely with the trend (and therefore presumably isn't looking to capitalize on reversal points).

Jeff

have a look at some of mugsgames videos, i think you will see what jolly g and peter are explaining.

[to75ne]

i have only watched approx 35 or so( there's loads of them) - if i remember correctly (no doubt i will be corrected if i am wrong), there are several where he points out likely reversal points/areas, and keeps a close watch on them so to speak; in particular he takes a lot of notice of the on coarse live shows, which are often points of resistance or support.

worth a look jeff.

tony

[andyfuller]

Jeff - only read a little of this thread but I get the impression you don't fully grasp over round and it's impact. I would suggest you spend time learning about it and how it is calculated. I think it will help you no end.

I don't think you are going to get Peter et al spell things out for you, they have given you some very useful information you should ponder on and try to figure out for yourself what they are saying. You will learn a lot on the journey.

Hope that helps.

[Iron]

Jeff - only read a little of this thread but I get the impression you don't fully grasp over round and it's impact.

Hi Andy

Thank you for your advice.

I understand the concept of the over-round. I'm just not sure what predictive value it has (if any).

Jeff

[lord]

My inability to accept losses is the primary object preventing me from trading full-time. I am determined to overcome this mental barrier.

The more individual trades you make the more likely you are to have individual losses. If you treat these losses as a byproduct of successful trading and programme your brain to accept them, (this will take some time) once your brain has accepted this you will be fine. "I cannot win unless i lose"

I suspect you are upping the volume of your individual trades, therefore you are bound to have more individual losses.

Your expectations are the problem, partly fuelled by regular reports of long term winning traders and everything being rosy for all. Imagine if the opposite was reported and you were regularly reading reports of losing traders, i suspect you would feel better about your losses.

If everyone posted their true losses i suspect you would be saying " I am doing ok compared to lots of others"

I have been trading for 9 years, and if it helps last Sunday i lost £265 on 1 trade on the 3.35 at Ffos Las when Night Alliance trained by the good Doctor Newland was supported. - I bet you feel better already.

If we had a table of individual race losses and you found yourself towards the bottom of that table you would be happier "that you werent doing as bad as some"

Good luck.

[Iron]

Your expectations are the problem, partly fuelled by regular reports of long term winning traders and everything being rosy for all.

+1

I know a trader who has a 70-80% strike rate and trades in just about every race. It can be tempting, when you hear about people like that, to think that there must be something wrong with your approach - that you should be doing more trades and getting a higher strike rate.

However, it's worth remembering that more trades and a higher strike rate don't necessarily equate to a greater long-term profitability. It's also worth focusing on finding a technique that works and practicing it, rather than worrying about what other people are doing.

Jeff

[andyfuller]

I understand the concept of the over-round. I'm just not sure what predictive value it has (if any).

The second sentence tells me you don't fully understand the over-round and its value to you as a trader.

[Iron]

Or it could be that it has no value to me as a trader.

How do you know that it does? Have you seen any evidence of its effectiveness?

Jeff

I understand the concept of the over-round. I'm just not sure what predictive value it has (if any).

The second sentence tells me you don't fully understand the over-round and its value to you as a trader.

[LeTiss]

That's a bloody nonsense Jeff

I'm telling you for a fact, that as a trader the book percentage figure is your friend. It means more to me than WOM

[andyfuller]

Or it could be that it has no value to me as a trader.

How do you know that it does? Have you seen any evidence of its effectiveness?

It may have no value to you as a trader but if so what I would be asking is WHY doesn't it give you any value when others are saying it does? If you can then clearly identify why it is of no use to you I would then start to look for ways in which I could make it of use. From that you should then discover other things and your trading will improve. This is much along the lines of what PeterLe was saying in another thread I just read.

To your second question. Yes I have seen its effectiveness with my own eyes and then I put that information to use and made a lot of money from it whilst combining it with other information the market gave me. Some of which I didn't realise I was getting or its significance until I grasped the OR.

[Iron]

It may have no value to you as a trader but if so what I would be asking is WHY doesn't it give you any value when others are saying it does?

I'm not saying it isn't effective - I'm just asking how you know it's effective.

I appreciate that the market is often at a point of support/resistance when the over-round is tight. However, surely what isn't knowable in advance is whether the existing trend will continue or reverse, and without that knowledge I question whether it holds any predictive value.

Jeff

[redtra]

I'm telling you for a fact, that as a trader the book percentage figure is your friend. It means more to me than WOM

Very interesting Le Tiss...In what way is it your friend?

[stevequal]

How many favourites have you seen go off at 1.01?

Over the last three days we've had 1.08, 1.13, 1.14 SPs, so I think the answer to your question is none yet, but maybe soon.

[James1st]

How many favourites have you seen go off at 1.01?

Over the last three days we've had 1.08, 1.13, 1.14 SPs, so I think the answer to your question is none yet, but maybe soon.

Victory Spin (May 1999) went off at odds of 1-66 (pre decimal but technically 1.015). Shortest recorded odds in UK racing.

[Euler]

Denman matched at 1.01 a few years ago I remember, but did go off above that price.