Very interesting post. Sadly I don't find it difficult to believe everything you say.
If something like this is going on then it's cheating of the very highest order.
But at the moment, without proof (I have various videos too) it can only be deemd as speculation.
I will continue to monitor though.
Trading is impossible now
Lol. This is probably us (to a large extent). Time fits and we're about 10% of volume in HR. Sorry about that ica73. At least we are using all of this to re-invest in hiring people etc.
Scarier things are to come, from all kinds of new companies. Perhaps a necessary wake-up? Scalpers are by far the most vulnerable, but feel free to keep trying.
Scarier things are to come, from all kinds of new companies. Perhaps a necessary wake-up? Scalpers are by far the most vulnerable, but feel free to keep trying.
Last edited by lightwing on Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.
And out of interest, who do you work for, or what is your company?lightwing wrote:Lol. This is probably us (to a large extent). Time fits and we're about 10% of volume in HR. Sorry about that ica73. At least we are using all of this to re-invest in hiring people etc.
Have you guys been around for a while, or are you only just getting involved?
Since you are Chinese (from your name), may I point you to my Chinese media account: https://www.zhihu.com/people/li-yi-rui-30/activities. You could also google my username to find out a bit more about me. Anyway, there are some articles in Chinese I wrote that may help provide a vague idea.
Its still very early days for us. I think you'll find that the major old syndicates are similarly secretive, if not more so. Couldn't resist responding to this thread though.
Yea, I have been to China many times. Noticed your username, and thought it was worth making the connection. Just a coincidence. If you meant specifically about hiring, its better to send me a message.
Yea, I have been to China many times. Noticed your username, and thought it was worth making the connection. Just a coincidence. If you meant specifically about hiring, its better to send me a message.
Last edited by lightwing on Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
Still very early days, and yet you're 10% of the volume on horse racing? That's pretty impressive. And a pretty big warning to the other big players out there.
With your talents, do you not think you could do better getting involved in the financial markets? You might not be able to own your own company, but I'm sure there are some hedge funds who look for people with exactly your abilities. Or is it the thing of not wanting to work for someone else (a lot like me actually, not that I'd class myself as good enough to work for a hedge fund anyway)?
Good spot on my username. Bet you can't guess what it actually means though without characters or tones
With your talents, do you not think you could do better getting involved in the financial markets? You might not be able to own your own company, but I'm sure there are some hedge funds who look for people with exactly your abilities. Or is it the thing of not wanting to work for someone else (a lot like me actually, not that I'd class myself as good enough to work for a hedge fund anyway)?
Good spot on my username. Bet you can't guess what it actually means though without characters or tones
In relation to Front Running, it is was only a matter of time before it started.
The betting exchanges are becoming more and more like the financial exchanges (lots of algos moving the market being the main one).
In terms of front running, companies pay a lot of money to be close to the exchange and get in front of orders. There is a book about it (Flash Boys) if anyone is interested.
The betting exchanges are becoming more and more like the financial exchanges (lots of algos moving the market being the main one).
In terms of front running, companies pay a lot of money to be close to the exchange and get in front of orders. There is a book about it (Flash Boys) if anyone is interested.
Sorry I had to delete the last post. Couldn't figure out how to delete the previous ones. Oh well.
Same feeling re: working for others, too hard. More fun but a bit more risky.
Yea, fine, blame me (us). In terms of volume, it is pretty big after all. In terms of net profit extracted from market, we are nowhere near as large as the biggest accounts. Some betfair accounts make on the order of 100k-500k per day. If you want to blame us, then fine; but I feel we are at least trying to provide liquidity. The idea that we are somehow conspiring with betfair or that betfair themselves are doing something dodgy is pretty ridiculous.
Of course, there is other exciting stuff in pipeline; other sports etc. And yet, many future potential market actors could be far far scarier, if somewhat inevitable given the way this industry is bound to develop.
Let this be a lesson to people who want to do super bot-like things without actually writing bots. I'll just say that.
Same feeling re: working for others, too hard. More fun but a bit more risky.
Yea, fine, blame me (us). In terms of volume, it is pretty big after all. In terms of net profit extracted from market, we are nowhere near as large as the biggest accounts. Some betfair accounts make on the order of 100k-500k per day. If you want to blame us, then fine; but I feel we are at least trying to provide liquidity. The idea that we are somehow conspiring with betfair or that betfair themselves are doing something dodgy is pretty ridiculous.
Of course, there is other exciting stuff in pipeline; other sports etc. And yet, many future potential market actors could be far far scarier, if somewhat inevitable given the way this industry is bound to develop.
Let this be a lesson to people who want to do super bot-like things without actually writing bots. I'll just say that.
Last edited by lightwing on Thu Dec 08, 2016 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
熙天 or 兮天. Not totally sure?xitian wrote:Still very early days, and yet you're 10% of the volume on horse racing? That's pretty impressive. And a pretty big warning to the other big players out there.
With your talents, do you not think you could do better getting involved in the financial markets? You might not be able to own your own company, but I'm sure there are some hedge funds who look for people with exactly your abilities. Or is it the thing of not wanting to work for someone else (a lot like me actually, not that I'd class myself as good enough to work for a hedge fund anyway)?
Good spot on my username. Bet you can't guess what it actually means though without characters or tones
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steven1976
- Posts: 1744
- Joined: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:28 am
Do you think you and others will help grow the exchanges or cause damage in the long run considering bf prefer to drive new customers to their sport book?
I think that's an interesting area of discussion. But I more like to question whether the sports markets are quite as scalable as lightwing suggests they'll become in future (or how well it will "develop" as he puts it).steven1976 wrote:Do you think you and others will help grow the exchanges or cause damage in the long run considering bf prefer to drive new customers to their sport book?
For a long time I was of the opinion exchanges would kill off bookmakers, but that's not even begun to happen, and I'm not sure it will now. And on a related topic, Betfair justify their premium charge by saying they needed the money to draw in new (losing) customers, and without it, it would eventually result in all the losing people having lost all their money and traders and bots just consuming each other until there would be only one player left. On the one hand, that's pretty absurd. Bookmakers have had a constant stream of customers for centuries, so why shouldn't exchanges.
However, on the other hand, thinking about things more closely, do we really think betting exchanges will develop into a size even beginning to compare with financial exchanges? Nowadays my viewpoint is no. Ultimately, financial exchanges provide a service of allowing people to hedge financial risk, invest in long term products, allowing people to raise capital, etc... and in return traders (in the loosest sense) get compensated with a commission. What value do sporting exchanges offer with which to earn a buck? The only thing I can think of is the value of the entertainment offered for the punter.
From that point of view, I don't see how betting exchanges can evolve to anything as complex or vast as the financial markets with all of its complex products. More likely I see highly sophisticated syndicates (or "companies" if the gambling world were ever to be taxed in the UK), like Lightwing's, who become the main operators of betting exchanges - offering up highly efficient market prices, leaving very little room for other traders, effectively turning the whole system back into a bookmaker.
So in answer to your question Steven - no, it's probably not a good thing for all the average Joe trader. For the punter? They probably won't see much change in the industry.
The worst thing that has happened with regards to the bookies, is FOBT's and all the bollocks like virtual casinos online. They have become so used to hoovering up guaranteed money, they have lost the art of bookmaking. They have forgotten how to be competitive with prices, and forgotten how to take chances by taking a large punters bet.
This has become a very interesting thread.
Sealebet - yes I'm aware of the book Flash Boys and it's pretty much what I'm referring too.
Main point here is the market is moving whilst money is coming in on the countdown clock (currently 5 secs in cricket).
Bots shouldn't be able to act on this information (i.e. what orders and how much) until the money hits the market (as far as I'm aware).
And before anyone mentions TV delays/snipers, I have taken those into account too.
Not qualified to comment on Horse Racing markets, but it's interesting to read where things are headed under the likes of Lightwing etc.
Will just add I have no problem with bots at all.
As long as they are acting on information 'in' the market and adhering to the same bet placement delays as the rest of us.
Sealebet - yes I'm aware of the book Flash Boys and it's pretty much what I'm referring too.
Main point here is the market is moving whilst money is coming in on the countdown clock (currently 5 secs in cricket).
Bots shouldn't be able to act on this information (i.e. what orders and how much) until the money hits the market (as far as I'm aware).
And before anyone mentions TV delays/snipers, I have taken those into account too.
Not qualified to comment on Horse Racing markets, but it's interesting to read where things are headed under the likes of Lightwing etc.
Will just add I have no problem with bots at all.
As long as they are acting on information 'in' the market and adhering to the same bet placement delays as the rest of us.
I think the algo trading stuff is overblown a bit and a bit trendy at the moment. I must have met at least 20 people who reckon they are 10% of the market, but also unique in their approach; when I know others doing exactly the same thing.
I did a blog post on it recently: -
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/11 ... t-markets/
When you triggering on a trigger that was triggered on a trigger you can end up with some really odd situations. It feels to me on racing that the market has much more noise in it now compare to a few years ago. But the underlying fundamentals are more or less the same. So it will inevitably catch people out that work on tiny margins unless they adapt.
The biggest contributor to fairness in the marketplace however is Betfair, so that's what you should be worried about more than other participants IMHO. If Betfair choose actively or passively or by accident to modify the behaviour of the market that's far more damaging IMHO.
I did a blog post on it recently: -
http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2016/11 ... t-markets/
When you triggering on a trigger that was triggered on a trigger you can end up with some really odd situations. It feels to me on racing that the market has much more noise in it now compare to a few years ago. But the underlying fundamentals are more or less the same. So it will inevitably catch people out that work on tiny margins unless they adapt.
The biggest contributor to fairness in the marketplace however is Betfair, so that's what you should be worried about more than other participants IMHO. If Betfair choose actively or passively or by accident to modify the behaviour of the market that's far more damaging IMHO.