First goal statistics

[thetopdecker]

I am sure this has come up many times, but I would be very grateful if someone could point me in the direction of some Premier League stats that indicate average minutes passed for first goal scored.

The 'First Goal Odds' markets suggest that the first 20 minutes of a match is the most likely time for the first goal, but my experience indicates that it is later.... is my personal sample/ experience too small?

[Euler]

Goals are fairly randomly distributed across a match, but focus on a key minute with large standard deviations around that time. This key minute moves up or down depending on the characteristics of the underlying match.

If you give me a match I can give you an estimated time of first goal. There are huge individual variations but over the course of the season it will end up being +/- 10 seconds or so.

[giulio2010]

1st goal scored overall...1st goal scored HOME vs AWAY
who scored 1st....1st goal conceded...
BELOW:
http://www.soccerstats.com/firstgoal.asp?league=england

[thetopdecker]

That is very interesting, is that prediction made by comparing it to a statistical base of similar matches?

Also could you explain:
but focus on a key minute with large standard deviations around that time

Are you talking about a generic minute common to similar games or a key minute from watching an individaul game?

[thetopdecker]

Thank you Giuilo

[giulio2010]

you are welcome....
My eyes are on all premier league games this weekend but in one particular game, I am hoping to gain good results...
Westbrom vs Stoke....my 1st goal prediction is around the 31st minute and in favour of westbrom...
zero gaols conceded 1st on their home ground....
However my indications are for several markets so please don't take it as an advice to bet on the 31st minute...
I still need to take other infos from friday until saturday to make a better decision on the game..

[Euler]

That is very interesting, is that prediction made by comparing it to a statistical base of similar matches?

Also could you explain:
but focus on a key minute with large standard deviations around that time

Are you talking about a generic minute common to similar games or a key minute from watching an individaul game?

I took a cut of some recent data. Average time of first goal in the data I looked at was 30mins, but the standard deviation was 22.72mins. So yes, the average time of the first goal was 30mins but to cover 68% of outcomes you would have to say, 'The first goal will be around 30mins +/- 23mins.' - Quite a wide range. That shows you how random the first goal is.

[haichless]

would not a median average in this instance by helpful.
Do you have that for your slice of data Euler?

[James1st]

Most FC's use a position paper that proved a very close correlation between goals and the poisson distribution.

Here are a few extracts:

Average number of goals/match 2.4784 (variance 2.4584)
Average time to first goal (intra goal gap) 33.71 minutes
Goals per match 0=8.2%, 1=21.1%, 2=25.9%, 3=20.3%, 4=13.8%, 5+=10.8%
Average number of goals per 15 minute period=0.413%

etc

Hope this helps