Trading What I see !?

[weemac]

People watching England about to play San Marino in a World Cup qualifier in 1993 might have said: "Oh yeah, England will hammer them 7-1 today". And they did. But the counter-intuitive play was to back San Marino to take the lead and get handsomely rewarded for it because almost no-one thought it possible. And they did.

But then you see a horse drift from 20 to 50 and you say "Oh, I'll back this as a counter-intuitive reversal play", but it ends up going to 70. I say it wasn't counter-intuitive at all because everyone else sees that move and half expects a rebound shorter. What's truly counter-intuitive is laying it at 50.

The skill lies in correctly defining what counter-intuitive really means and applying it correctly, and that's hard because we all have different expectations. If it's easy to pull the trigger then it probably isn't counter-intuitive. It was hard to pull the trigger and back San Marino, and it's hard to lay at 50 after a drift from 20.

[lotora]

I am wondering if some traders just take certain types of trades like counter intuitive trades only or are both types necessary to do well at manual trading?

My trading is 100% automated, but I only do counter intuitive trades/reversals at the bottom.

[to75ne]

why are reversals at the top/bottom of trends being considered counter intuitive? there is usually some signal/sign/indication, move on another runner, money drying up and so on pointing to a likely reversal, how are reversals counter intuitive when most are fairly obvious?

[smallplayer]

why are reversals at the top/bottom of trends being considered counter intuitive? there is usually some signal/sign/indication, move on another runner, money drying up and so on pointing to a likely reversal, how are reversals counter intuitive when most are fairly obvious?

I think that to you to75ne, as an advanced trader, this is simply trading what you see, because as an advanced trader, you can see all these things before you make your trade, but to me, a novice, it is a counter intuitive play, as I am unable to see and process them quickly enough as they occur.

[to75ne]

sort of makes sense, but

you can see all these things before you make your trade, but to me, a novice, it is a counter intuitive play, as I am unable to see and process them quickly enough as they occur.

even to a novice its surely not a counter-intuitive trade just because you are unable to see a possible reversal (however strong or weak the signs/signasl are), inexperience is not counter-intuition.

[smallplayer]

Could you give me an example of a counter intuitive trade. The whole phrase confuses me tbh. Thanks.

[to75ne]

no not really, i never (knowingly) trade against what is happening, i rarely (consciously) trade on intuition let alone counter-intuitively.

[Euler]

Could you give me an example of a counter intuitive trade. The whole phrase confuses me tbh. Thanks.

A Tennis player is a set a break up in a match. They are almost certain to win, you lay them.

[Dallas]

Could you give me an example of a counter intuitive trade. The whole phrase confuses me tbh. Thanks.

A Tennis player is a set a break up in a match. They are almost certain to win, you lay them.

A perfect example
viewtopic.php?f=7&t=8985&start=1120

[smallplayer]

Thanks for replies and examples.

[ShaunWhite]

Could you give me an example of a counter intuitive trade. The whole phrase confuses me tbh. Thanks.

A Tennis player is a set a break up in a match. They are almost certain to win, you lay them.

Is that counter-intuitive? Surely it depends what your own personal intuition is tell you.

Take streaks, and say a player has won 8 in a row. Some people think "they're bang on form and will win again" I see that as "streaks never last" and I'll oppose them. What do I do to be counter-intuitive?

I think you're really just exploiting the fact that people overestimate the chances of the leader? Ie the intuition you're countering is the that of the other participants, not your own? .

[ruthlessimon]

Take streaks, and say a player has won 8 in a row. Some people think "they're bang on form and will win again" I see that as "streaks never last" and I'll oppose them.

What do I do to be counter-intuitive?

Whichever one is longterm profitable.

Personally I don't like it when counter-intuitive is used as a synonym of reversals. It's a synonym of profitability. Weemac's point can't be ignored imo. If you think 50 is still lay value after a drift from 20, that is a very very hard trade to take.

[goat68]

A poor day of limiting losses...:
7 wins : AVG +£1.72
6 losses : AVG -£2.79
net -£4.74

BA is far too easy to just "click" a put trades on... 1 particularly bad market where I did 3 losing trades...

[goat68]

Week's result:
101 trades
Net: +£2.06

[spreadbetting]

A weekly profit is probably better than half the forum so don't be downhearted, this time next year Rodney.